Middle East & North Africa Economics Update PMIs point to a fragile recovery taking hold in the Gulf The whole economy PMIs for July show that a recovery in the Gulf’s non-oil sectors from the Iran war is taking hold – although the sustainability of this hinges on the Strait of Hormuz reopening... 5th August 2026 · 3 mins read
Commodities Update Key factors to watch if/when the Strait re-reopens With reports suggesting that a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz again is “imminent”, this Update revisits analysis from June and outlines five key factors to watch over the coming weeks and months. 5th August 2026 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Hormuz closure pushing Bahrain to the brink The renewed closure of the Strait of Hormuz is likely to create further strains in Bahrain’s balance of payments. FX reserves provide very limited capacity to sustain the dollar peg and roll over... 3rd August 2026 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Iran attacks likely to stop Gulf recovery in its tracks The latest data had showed tentative signs of recovery for the Gulf economies. But this is likely to have halted, or even reversed, due to recent re-escalation of the conflict. The downside risks to... 23rd July 2026 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update What is the future of US tariffs? The “Section 122” global tariff imposed by the Trump administration after the Supreme Court struck down its IEEPA tariffs (including those from “Liberation Day”) in February will expire on Friday, to... 23rd July 2026 · 6 mins read
Global Economics Update Key lessons from the Iran war so far The Iran war has (already) lasted longer than we initially assumed in our base case but the disruption to energy markets and hit to the global economy have been more limited. This resilience will be... 21st July 2026 · 8 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Jordan caught in the crosshairs Iranian attacks have increasingly targeted Jordan and are likely to set back the economy’s recovery from a decade of negative spillovers caused by the civil war in Syria. Jordan’s balance of payments... 20th July 2026 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update What are the potential implications of Houthi attacks? Given reports of Houthi threats to close the Bab el-Mandeb passage to the Red Sea and to attack Saudi oil infrastructure, we are publishing an updated version of this note originally sent on 31st... 16th July 2026 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update The implications of a renewed closure of the Strait The global economy has so far weathered the energy shock created by the war in Iran, but a sharp drawdown in oil inventories has left stocks close to critically low levels. The oil market therefore... 16th July 2026 · 5 mins read
Commodities Update Five key questions on the “Battle of Hormuz” The announcement of a new US naval blockade on Iranian oil – and the suggestion that the US will charge a toll on shipping through the Strait – has upended the MoU and poses risks to our view that... 14th July 2026 · 4 mins read
Commodities Update US-Iran strikes are a reminder of upside risks to prices The latest exchange of military strikes in the Middle East supports our view that oil prices will be volatile over the coming months, and will face bouts of upward pressure. That said, under the... 8th July 2026 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi government debt on course to surpass 50% of GDP Saudi Arabia’s government debt has been on an upwards path over the past decade and, with the windfall from the energy shock fading fast, we think it will rise from just over 30% of GDP last year to... 7th July 2026 · 3 mins read
Commodities Update There are no quick fixes for bypassing the Strait Reports that the UAE could have another oil pipeline up and running in 2027 have bolstered hopes of a rapid redrawing of the energy map in the Middle East which would negate Iran’s stranglehold over... 18th June 2026 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update What the peace deal means for the Gulf? The deal agreed over the weekend to end the war between the US and Iran will, if it holds, support a gradual recovery in the Gulf economies over the coming quarters. But the hit to output that has... 15th June 2026 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi economy stabilising, albeit still depressed There are tentative signs that the worst of the hit to Saudi Arabia’s economy from the Iran war may have passed, but we still expect the Kingdom to record a sharp contraction in GDP this year. 9th June 2026 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt: weathering the storm Past shocks – domestic and external – have tended to lead to large falls in Egypt’s currency and a sharp slowdown in growth. But the economy looks better placed to weather the current spillovers from... 3rd June 2026 · 3 mins read
