Emerging Markets Economics Update Where might energy subsidy bills worsen fiscal strains? The sharp rise in energy prices threatens to raise the cost of energy subsidies across many emerging markets. Those governments with the largest subsidy bills also tend to be energy producers that... 11th March 2026 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Policy response leaves Egypt better placed to weather war Egypt hasn’t been involved directly in the conflict in the Middle East but it is one of the most vulnerable EMs to the indirect effects, especially higher energy prices and tighter global financial... 11th March 2026 · 3 mins read
Commodities Update Strategic reserves are no substitute for an open Strait A record-breaking release of emergency oil reserves could cushion a lack of supply from the Middle East and provide some relief to oil prices. However, this would prove temporary with prices likely to... 11th March 2026 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update Scenarios for the Iran war & the macro impact This note assesses the macro and commodity‑market implications of three potential scenarios for the Iran war. In the most benign – a severe but short‑lived conflict – the effects on GDP, inflation and... 10th March 2026 · 7 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update The Iran war: assessing the hit to the Gulf economies This Update takes three scenarios for how the conflict in the Middle East could play out and assesses the potential impact on the Gulf economies. In all cases, these economies would probably record... 10th March 2026 · 5 mins read
Commodities Update Modelling the scale of the energy market disruption This Update introduces our framework for estimating the scale of disruption to energy flows from events in the Middle East as well as three scenarios about how the conflict could play out from here... 9th March 2026 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update How will the Middle East conflict impact tourism? The conflict in the Middle East risks damaging the perception of safety in the region’s tourist hubs, especially in the Gulf. History shows that such crises can trigger steep declines in visitor... 4th March 2026 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Could higher energy prices trigger an EM crisis? The energy price shock caused by the conflict in the Middle East will worsen current account positions in net energy-importing EMs. But unlike recent energy shocks, the external balance sheets of most... 4th March 2026 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Dubai’s paradise punctured? Iran’s attacks over the past few days have struck at the heart of Dubai’s economy. The near-term hit to GDP could be larger than in other parts of the Gulf (although that will depend on the length of... 3rd March 2026 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update The Iran conflict and spillovers to the GCC Iran’s strikes on the Gulf economies have punctured the perceived security and stability of the region. This will lead to disruptions to non-oil activity in the near term and, if the attacks persist... 2nd March 2026 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Scenarios for a post-Khamenei Iran The death of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei in US and Israeli air strikes on Saturday has created enormous uncertainty about Iran’s political future, but the path that Iran takes will have... 2nd March 2026 · 8 mins read
Commodities Update Five Key Questions on the Strait of Hormuz Following the effective “closure” of the Strait of Hormuz in the wake of renewed conflict in the Middle East, this Update answers five key questions about the potential impacts on global energy... 2nd March 2026 · 6 mins read
Global Economics Update The consequences of the Middle East conflict The global economic impact of conflict in the Middle East will hinge on its effect on energy markets. If oil stays near $70-$80 per barrel, DM inflation will be only about 0.2-0.3 percentage points... 2nd March 2026 · 8 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Capital spending giving Qatar’s economy a lift A pick-up in investment activity, coming alongside strength in the tourism sector, is likely to sustain rapid growth of 4-5% y/y in Qatar’s non-hydrocarbon economy. And once production at the North... 24th February 2026 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update Questions & answers on the new US tariff regime The imposition of a 10% Section 122 tariff on all countries leaves the weighted-average US tariff rate about 3.5%-points lower than was the case under the IEEPA framework, although the difference will... 23rd February 2026 (Updated 24th February 2026) · 8 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Fiscal consolidation in Saudi: lessons from history The recent announcement of a scaling back of gigaprojects suggests that Saudi Arabia will be following the playbook of previous tightening episodes by focusing on cuts to capital expenditure. This... 17th February 2026 · 5 mins read
