Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Recovery in the Gulf strengthens The whole economy PMIs for August, released today, suggest that a recovery in the Gulf’s non-oil sectors is taking hold. The UAE and Kuwait saw the strongest increases, and non-oil activity in Saudi... 3rd September 2026 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Tunisia: risk of currency, sovereign debt crises growing Tunisia’s fragile external position has deteriorated further since the onset of the Iran war and the dinar appears increasingly overvalued. Officials have tightened access to foreign currency in a bid... 2nd September 2026 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Which EMs benefit if tourists don’t return to the Gulf? The recovery in tourism by non-GCC nationals to the Gulf remains slow. If this persists, shifting travel patterns might result in significant gains in some smaller economies in the Caribbean and the... 18th August 2026 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Gulf tourism still struggling Early signs suggest that tourism in the Gulf, particularly intra-GCC travel, is starting to rebound. That benefits Bahrain’s economy more than most. But tourists from outside the region appear more... 17th August 2026 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi recovery to be hampered by lending slowdown Private sector credit growth in Saudi Arabia has slowed sharply over the past year and we think it’s likely to act as a headwind to the recovery in non-oil sectors from the Iran war. 11th August 2026 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Can Iran continue to hold out? Iran’s financial lifeline has been cut by the US blockade, and the economy will remain in a very depressed state unless it can secure concessions. But whether this happens ultimately comes down to the... 10th August 2026 · 3 mins read
Commodities Update Iran’s Hormuz proposals muddy the waters Even if Iran’s proposed restrictions on US, Israeli, and other “hostile” ships using the Strait of Hormuz are passed into law, they are unlikely to be a major obstacle to energy flows given that most... 7th August 2026 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update PMIs point to a fragile recovery taking hold in the Gulf The whole economy PMIs for July show that a recovery in the Gulf’s non-oil sectors from the Iran war is taking hold – although the sustainability of this hinges on the Strait of Hormuz reopening... 5th August 2026 · 3 mins read
Commodities Update Key factors to watch if/when the Strait re-reopens With reports suggesting that a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz again is “imminent”, this Update revisits analysis from June and outlines five key factors to watch over the coming weeks and months. 5th August 2026 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Hormuz closure pushing Bahrain to the brink The renewed closure of the Strait of Hormuz is likely to create further strains in Bahrain’s balance of payments. FX reserves provide very limited capacity to sustain the dollar peg and roll over... 3rd August 2026 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Iran attacks likely to stop Gulf recovery in its tracks The latest data had showed tentative signs of recovery for the Gulf economies. But this is likely to have halted, or even reversed, due to recent re-escalation of the conflict. The downside risks to... 23rd July 2026 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update What is the future of US tariffs? The “Section 122” global tariff imposed by the Trump administration after the Supreme Court struck down its IEEPA tariffs (including those from “Liberation Day”) in February will expire on Friday, to... 23rd July 2026 · 6 mins read
Global Economics Update Key lessons from the Iran war so far The Iran war has (already) lasted longer than we initially assumed in our base case but the disruption to energy markets and hit to the global economy have been more limited. This resilience will be... 21st July 2026 · 8 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Jordan caught in the crosshairs Iranian attacks have increasingly targeted Jordan and are likely to set back the economy’s recovery from a decade of negative spillovers caused by the civil war in Syria. Jordan’s balance of payments... 20th July 2026 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update What are the potential implications of Houthi attacks? Given reports of Houthi threats to close the Bab el-Mandeb passage to the Red Sea and to attack Saudi oil infrastructure, we are publishing an updated version of this note originally sent on 31st... 16th July 2026 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update The implications of a renewed closure of the Strait The global economy has so far weathered the energy shock created by the war in Iran, but a sharp drawdown in oil inventories has left stocks close to critically low levels. The oil market therefore... 16th July 2026 · 5 mins read
