Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Bahrain needs to follow Oman’s path to reduce debt fears Oman and Bahrain both recorded sharp increases in their government debt-to-GDP ratios in the second half of the last decade, but while Oman’s public finances have improved dramatically since then... 8th April 2024 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi Arabia's non-oil economy to drive the recovery After a very weak 2023, Saudi Arabia’s economy should see a modest recovery this year as the Kingdom’s non-oil economy sustains its strong momentum and more than offsets the drag from the extended oil... 3rd April 2024 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt’s orthodox policy shift back underway with IMF The announcement of an agreement over a new IMF package for Egypt, coming on the back of the rate hike and devaluation earlier today, represents a shift towards more orthodox policymaking. While it is... 6th March 2024 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Morocco well placed to move towards floating dirham Morocco’s improving balance of payments position and the sharp slowdown in inflation should provide the central bank, Bank Al-Maghrib (BAM), with the confidence to take the next step toward a fully... 4th March 2024 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt: Ras el Hekma deal paves the way for policy shift The $35bn deal struck between Egypt’s government and the Abu Dhabi sovereign wealth fund, ADQ, will go some way towards alleviating acute balance of payments strains and pave the way for an enhanced... 27th February 2024 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Israel-Hamas spillovers weigh on non-Gulf economies The main spillover to the global economy, so far, from the Israel-Hamas conflict has been major disruptions to shipping, but there has been a bigger and broader economic impact in the MENA region... 20th February 2024 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi Arabia: downturn over, but a slow recovery in 2024 Saudi Arabia’s economy contracted by 0.9% over the course of 2023 on the back of the Kingdom’s oil output cuts. But the recession ended in Q4 and we think that a gradual recovery will ensue over 2024... 7th February 2024 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update PMIs: Gulf a bright spot, Israel-Hamas war weighs on Egypt January’s batch of PMIs showed that activity across non-hydrocarbon sectors in the Gulf eased a touch at the start of the year, but activity remains robust and will support the broader economic... 5th February 2024 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt hikes interest rates as new IMF deal edges closer Events in Egypt yesterday, including a large interest rate hike and comments that a disbursement of more IMF funding is close, suggest that a shift towards more orthodox policy is nearing. If a new... 2nd February 2024 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Will Saudi shift tack on oil policy? Saudi Arabia has cut oil output significantly over the past year or so but that hasn’t prevented global oil prices from falling. Despite Aramco’s announcement today that it is postponing plans to... 30th January 2024 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Is Tunisia looking down the barrel of a sovereign default? Tunisia’s government faces a large debt repayment next month and, while it should be able to make that, there is still a lot of debt coming due in the next twelve months. President Saied’s... 24th January 2024 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Could Saudi live with a sustained fall in oil prices? Saudi Arabia’s government returned to running budget deficits last year and is likely to continue doing so. But these should be easily financed. Oil prices would probably have to fall sharply, to... 23rd January 2024 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Revisiting Dubai’s GRE debts We have long highlighted the risk in Dubai’s corporate sector and the large debts that government-related entities (GREs) have accrued. This Update provides our latest estimates of these debts. The... 16th January 2024 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Jordan’s economy stuck in malaise Economic growth in Jordan has been sluggish for the best part of a decade and the outlook doesn't look much brighter. While the renewed IMF programme will help to contain external strains, the Israel... 11th January 2024 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt’s economic struggles look set to persist In the past few years, Egypt’s economy has been hit by the successive impacts of the pandemic, the war in Ukraine, and, more recently, currency devaluations. With further currency falls on the cards... 3rd January 2024 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi: end of recession in sight, but sluggish growth persists Saudi Arabia looks set to record its worst economic performance this year, outside of the pandemic and the global financial crisis, in more than two decades on the back of lower oil output. The worst... 19th December 2023 · 4 mins read
