Commodities Update Iran instability a bigger headache than Venezuela The risks to the oil market from growing instability in Iran are much greater than in Venezuela. This is not only because Iran produces much more oil itself, but there are also a greater number of... 14th January 2026 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Protests in Iran: the economic and oil market implications It’s unclear how the protests that have spread across Iran will develop and how they will affect the ruling regime and the oil sector. But the prospect of disruption to Iranian energy output presents... 12th January 2026 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi back in the US camp, for now Improved relations between Saudi Arabia and the US since President Trump returned to office, as well as recent agreements in the areas of AI-related technologies and defence, mean that we are shifting... 6th January 2026 · 8 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi’s non-oil economy faces growing headwinds in 2026 The Saudi economy has been boosted by the unwinding of oil output cuts this year and this will continue over the coming quarters, but a step up in fiscal consolidation efforts means that overall GDP... 10th December 2025 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt’s balance sheet risks high but likely to recede Egypt’s devaluation and shift back towards macro orthodoxy 18 months ago have put the economy back on the path towards restoring macroeconomic stability. The situation is still very fragile – Egypt... 24th November 2025 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt’s central bank still has room to cut in 2026 The Central Bank of Egypt’s (CBE’s) monetary easing cycle has been stop-start and with headline inflation rising in recent months, last night’s decision to keep interest rates on hold was not a... 21st November 2025 · 2 mins read
Commodities Update Unpacking the key unknowns that will drive peak oil A growing divergence in views on the trajectory of oil demand over the next 25 years – and whether demand will even reach a peak during this period – partly reflects the reduction in political support... 17th November 2025 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi’s worsening twin deficits reinforce need for austerity Saudi Arabia’s twin budget and current account deficits have widened on the back of low oil export receipts and this trend is likely to continue over the coming quarters. While the adjustment to low... 5th November 2025 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Qatar’s weak bank lending to persist Qatar has experienced a multi-year slowdown in credit growth and, in contrast to the past decade or so, lending is now expanding at a weaker pace than in the rest of the Gulf. We expect domestic... 23rd October 2025 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi: fiscal tightening to drive growth slowdown in 2026 The Saudi economy has been boosted by the unwinding of oil output cuts this year and this will continue over the coming quarters, but a step up in fiscal consolidation efforts means that overall GDP... 15th October 2025 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update The geopolitical ramifications of the Gaza peace plan The war in Gaza has fundamentally re-shaped geopolitics in the Middle East. Iran and Russia (and, indirectly, China) are nursing blows to their power in the region, which has created space for the US... 15th October 2025 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Tunisia between a rock and a hard place A surge in olive oil exports and a rebound in tourist arrivals, alongside Gulf and EU financial support, have helped to stave off a balance of payments crisis in Tunisia. But with the dinar... 13th October 2025 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update PMIs: Gulf non-oil sectors end Q3 on a strong footing Gulf non-oil sectors enjoyed a strong end to Q3 but Saudi Arabia’s recent Pre-Budget Statement for 2026 reinforced our view that non-oil growth in the Kingdom will slow over 2026-27. Elsewhere, Egypt... 6th October 2025 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi forced to step up austerity as low oil prices bite Following the publication of Saudi Arabia's full 2026 Budget today, we have provided this updated analysis Saudi Arabia officially approved its 2026 Budget earlier today and, while the headline... 30th September 2025 (Updated 2nd December 2025) · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi’s lifting of foreign ownership limits not a gamechanger Saudi Arabia’s reform push looks set to take another step forward with suggestions that it will lift foreign ownership limits on local equities before the end of this year. While such a move will help... 24th September 2025 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi inflation rebased, headline rate hits two-year high The rebasing of Saudi Arabia’s inflation data, which came alongside August’s data release, has resulted in only minor changes to the headline inflation readings, but it underlines the shifts in... 15th September 2025 · 3 mins read
