Middle East & North Africa Economics Update US blockade will cut off Iran’s financial lifeline The war hasn’t caused the severe balance of payments strains in Iran that might have been expected, reflecting Iran’s continued ability to export hydrocarbons, the sharp rise in global energy prices... 15th April 2026 · 3 mins read
Commodities Update Oil: what alternatives are there to the Strait of Hormuz? Alternative export routes – pipelines and other terminals that bypass the Strait of Hormuz – are operating at close to full capacity, diverting around 4m bpd of oil exports. In total, that’s... 15th April 2026 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update War dealing a heavy blow to the Gulf economies Timely indicators underscore the severe hit dealt to the Gulf economies by the war, with sharp declines in oil output alongside clear weakness in non-hydrocarbon sectors. Even if the war ends soon, we... 14th April 2026 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update The economic consequences of a tax on Hormuz trade A tax on shipping through the Strait of Hormuz would be unlikely to have major near-term implications for global energy markets, trade or wider economic activity. But depending on how it is structured... 9th April 2026 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Spillovers from war could tip Tunisia towards crisis Spillovers from the Iran war threaten to exacerbate existing strains in Tunisia’s economy. If officials continue to maintain a tight grip on the dinar, macroeconomic imbalances are likely to build... 2nd April 2026 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update What are the potential implications of Houthi Attacks? While the direct effect of renewed strikes on shipping in the Red Sea on aggregate world trade is likely to be limited, the impact on Asian economies that rely more heavily on oil imports from Saudi... 31st March 2026 · 4 mins read
Commodities Update Refined oil products caught in the maelstrom The surge in the prices of refined oil products is amplifying the economic impact of the energy crisis. Countries in Africa that ordinarily source oil products from the Middle East have been most... 20th March 2026 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update How will EM central banks respond to the energy shock? The spike in energy prices has already caused Turkey’s central bank to tighten monetary policy and Pakistan may not be far behind. Most other central banks will be more reluctant to tighten but those... 18th March 2026 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Where might energy subsidy bills worsen fiscal strains? The sharp rise in energy prices threatens to raise the cost of energy subsidies across many emerging markets. Those governments with the largest subsidy bills also tend to be energy producers that... 11th March 2026 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Policy response leaves Egypt better placed to weather war Egypt hasn’t been involved directly in the conflict in the Middle East but it is one of the most vulnerable EMs to the indirect effects, especially higher energy prices and tighter global financial... 11th March 2026 · 3 mins read
Commodities Update Strategic reserves are no substitute for an open Strait A record-breaking release of emergency oil reserves could cushion a lack of supply from the Middle East and provide some relief to oil prices. However, this would prove temporary with prices likely to... 11th March 2026 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update Scenarios for the Iran war & the macro impact This note assesses the macro and commodity‑market implications of three potential scenarios for the Iran war. In the most benign – a severe but short‑lived conflict – the effects on GDP, inflation and... 10th March 2026 · 7 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update The Iran war: assessing the hit to the Gulf economies This Update takes three scenarios for how the conflict in the Middle East could play out and assesses the potential impact on the Gulf economies. In all cases, these economies would probably record... 10th March 2026 · 5 mins read
Commodities Update Modelling the scale of the energy market disruption This Update introduces our framework for estimating the scale of disruption to energy flows from events in the Middle East as well as three scenarios about how the conflict could play out from here... 9th March 2026 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update How will the Middle East conflict impact tourism? The conflict in the Middle East risks damaging the perception of safety in the region’s tourist hubs, especially in the Gulf. History shows that such crises can trigger steep declines in visitor... 4th March 2026 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Could higher energy prices trigger an EM crisis? The energy price shock caused by the conflict in the Middle East will worsen current account positions in net energy-importing EMs. But unlike recent energy shocks, the external balance sheets of most... 4th March 2026 · 3 mins read
