Will the war trigger a debt crisis in Dubai?

The Iran war has already caused tourist arrivals to Dubai to collapse and, over a longer horizon, it could dampen the Emirate’s appeal to expatriate workers and firms seeking to set up in the region. That could prick the boom in Dubai’s real estate market and, in turn, weigh on the revenues of the government-related entities that were at the heart of Dubai’s crisis in 2009. But the GREs have paid down their debts in recent years and so, for now, we think the risk that severe debt problems emerge is low.