Emerging Markets Economics Update Is Trump the mortar for the BRICS? President Trump’s tariff salvo aimed at some of the BRICS economies has led to growing efforts within the bloc to present a united front in the face of US protectionism. But divisions between the... 12th August 2025 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt: improved competitiveness easing external strains The Egyptian pound has strengthened so far this year against the dollar, but by most measures the currency looks competitive. This will provide a boost to GDP growth over the coming years and reduce... 12th August 2025 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Morocco’s auto boom to shift economy into higher gear Morocco’s autos production has surged over the past decade and now rivals major producers in Europe, such as Poland and Hungary and output could soon surpass Italy. This growth in the manufacturing... 4th August 2025 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update New US tariff regime still not the end of the story President Trump’s latest flurry of tariffs implies that the US effective tariff rate will rise to about 18%, from 2.3% last year. That is a little higher than we assumed and so presents modest... 1st August 2025 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update UAE to top the Gulf growth chart another year running The UAE’s non-oil sector has seen a strong run of growth recently and we think that robust activity in tourism and retail sectors as well as solid credit growth means that non-oil GDP growth will... 7th July 2025 · 3 mins read
Commodities Update Oil market fundamentals snap back into focus The Israel-Iran ceasefire is likely to prove fragile. But so long as both parties show themselves unwilling to attack export-related energy infrastructure and/or disrupt shipping flows through the... 24th June 2025 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update The Iran conflict and the impact on the Gulf The Gulf economies are vulnerable if Iran decides to attack oil infrastructure in the region, or block the Strait of Hormuz, in retaliation for the strikes by Israel and the US. So long as that is... 23rd June 2025 · 4 mins read
Commodities Update Five Key Questions on the Strait of Hormuz This Update answers five key questions about a potential “closure” of the Strait of Hormuz and the potential impacts on global energy markets from any attempt to close the waterway. As it stands, it... 23rd June 2025 · 5 mins read
Commodities Update How could Israel-Iran escalation affect energy prices? Oil prices could feasibly surge to $130-150pb were hostilities between Israel and Iran to escalate in a way that resulted in major disruption to Middle Eastern energy exports and/or shipping through... 18th June 2025 · 5 mins read
Global Economics Update Mapping out Israel-Iran conflict scenarios This Update outlines potential outcomes of the Iran-Israel conflict and teases out the implications for the region, the global economy and commodity and financial markets. One point that emerges is... 18th June 2025 · 7 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Israel-Iran conflict: the macro, geopolitical and oil market fallout The Israel-Iran conflict has continued to escalate. This Update summarises how our views on the macro impact have evolved over the past few days and answers the most frequently asked client questions... 16th June 2025 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Israel’s strikes on Iran: assessing the macro impact The overnight strikes by Israel on Iran mark a major escalation in the conflict in the region and, with the oil market tighter than it was a few months ago, the risks to oil prices look more balanced... 13th June 2025 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi better placed to smooth non-oil slowdown The most frequent question we received from clients during recent meetings in the Gulf was whether lower oil prices would lead to a sharp slowdown in Saudi Arabia’s non-oil sector akin to that in 2014... 5th June 2025 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update MENA PMIs: a soft year ahead for Gulf non-oil sectors May’s batch of PMIs across the Gulf point to a softer Q2 for non-oil sectors and the backdrop of lower oil prices will likely result in less fiscal support and weaker confidence that add to the... 4th June 2025 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update The implications of the US court ruling on tariffs In this Update, we answer several key questions about how the US Court of International Trade tariff ruling might affect the US and other economies. The outlook may now rest on the decision of the... 29th May 2025 · 7 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Slowdown in Saudi’s non-oil sector only just starting The latest low-profile data suggest that Saudi Arabia’s non-oil economy has started to lose momentum. And with the shift to a more aggressive oil output policy causing oil prices to fall, further... 28th May 2025 · 3 mins read
