Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi: fiscal tightening to drive growth slowdown in 2026 The Saudi economy has been boosted by the unwinding of oil output cuts this year and this will continue over the coming quarters, but a step up in fiscal consolidation efforts means that overall GDP... 15th October 2025 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update The geopolitical ramifications of the Gaza peace plan The war in Gaza has fundamentally re-shaped geopolitics in the Middle East. Iran and Russia (and, indirectly, China) are nursing blows to their power in the region, which has created space for the US... 15th October 2025 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Tunisia between a rock and a hard place A surge in olive oil exports and a rebound in tourist arrivals, alongside Gulf and EU financial support, have helped to stave off a balance of payments crisis in Tunisia. But with the dinar... 13th October 2025 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update PMIs: Gulf non-oil sectors end Q3 on a strong footing Gulf non-oil sectors enjoyed a strong end to Q3 but Saudi Arabia’s recent Pre-Budget Statement for 2026 reinforced our view that non-oil growth in the Kingdom will slow over 2026-27. Elsewhere, Egypt... 6th October 2025 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi forced to step up austerity as low oil prices bite Saudi Arabia’s 2026 Pre-Budget Statement reaffirmed that the Kingdom’s recent turn to fiscal consolidation is here to stay and, in fact, will be stepped up after the budget deficit for this year is... 30th September 2025 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi’s lifting of foreign ownership limits not a gamechanger Saudi Arabia’s reform push looks set to take another step forward with suggestions that it will lift foreign ownership limits on local equities before the end of this year. While such a move will help... 24th September 2025 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi inflation rebased, headline rate hits two-year high The rebasing of Saudi Arabia’s inflation data, which came alongside August’s data release, has resulted in only minor changes to the headline inflation readings, but it underlines the shifts in... 15th September 2025 · 3 mins read
Commodities Update OPEC+ desire to pump will lead to oil prices falling OPEC+ seems to be cautiously optimistic on the strength of the oil market as it remains committed to unwinding voluntary output cuts. However, we suspect it will become increasingly clear that the oil... 8th September 2025 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi Vision 2030: where do things stand with five years to go? Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030 reform programme passed the halfway mark last year and we published an in-depth Focus evaluating the progress so far. This Update takes a fresh look at how close the... 27th August 2025 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Is Trump the mortar for the BRICS? President Trump’s tariff salvo aimed at some of the BRICS economies has led to growing efforts within the bloc to present a united front in the face of US protectionism. But divisions between the... 12th August 2025 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt: improved competitiveness easing external strains The Egyptian pound has strengthened so far this year against the dollar, but by most measures the currency looks competitive. This will provide a boost to GDP growth over the coming years and reduce... 12th August 2025 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Morocco’s auto boom to shift economy into higher gear Morocco’s autos production has surged over the past decade and now rivals major producers in Europe, such as Poland and Hungary and output could soon surpass Italy. This growth in the manufacturing... 4th August 2025 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update New US tariff regime still not the end of the story President Trump’s latest flurry of tariffs implies that the US effective tariff rate will rise to about 18%, from 2.3% last year. That is a little higher than we assumed and so presents modest... 1st August 2025 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update UAE to top the Gulf growth chart another year running The UAE’s non-oil sector has seen a strong run of growth recently and we think that robust activity in tourism and retail sectors as well as solid credit growth means that non-oil GDP growth will... 7th July 2025 · 3 mins read
Commodities Update Oil market fundamentals snap back into focus The Israel-Iran ceasefire is likely to prove fragile. But so long as both parties show themselves unwilling to attack export-related energy infrastructure and/or disrupt shipping flows through the... 24th June 2025 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update The Iran conflict and the impact on the Gulf The Gulf economies are vulnerable if Iran decides to attack oil infrastructure in the region, or block the Strait of Hormuz, in retaliation for the strikes by Israel and the US. So long as that is... 23rd June 2025 · 4 mins read
