Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Deal to end the war edging closer? Hopes for an end to the Iran war have grown (again) in recent days. But there are lots of points of contention that will arise during the 30-day negotiation period and divisions within the Iranian... 7th May 2026 · 6 mins read
Commodities Weekly UAE proves Neil Sedaka wrong; Hormuz in limbo The UAE’s decision to leave OPEC+ demonstrates that “breaking up” with the group is not hard to do and fits with our existing view that the ties binding OPEC members together are loosening. The news... 1st May 2026 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update How has the war affected the Gulf’s external positions? The impact of the war on balance of payments positions across the Gulf varies by country. Kuwait, Qatar and Bahrain are suffering severe blows due to the halt to their energy exports, and their... 30th April 2026 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly OPEC minus, US blockade The surprise announcement that the UAE will be leaving OPEC+ points to a world in which global oil supplies are likely to be higher and prices lower over the medium term (and once the Strait of Hormuz... 30th April 2026 · 6 mins read
Commodities Update Five key questions on the UAE’s OPEC exit This Update considers the economic and geopolitical implications of the UAE’s departure from OPEC, as well as the future of the group. Note: We’ll be discussing the UAE's exit from OPEC in an online... 28th April 2026 · 5 mins read
Event Drop-In: The UAE leaves OPEC – What this means for global oil and the group’s future 29th April 2026, 9:00AM BST The UAE’s decision to leave OPEC has caught some in the market off guard and raised important questions about the group’s future.
Commodities Rapid Response UAE's exit from OPEC could be the thin end of the wedge 28th April 2026 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Stalemate, swap lines and slumps Prospects for a swift end to the Iran war were dented this week as divisions within the Iranian regime hinder Tehran’s efforts to put forward a coherent, unified position in negotiations. And as a... 23rd April 2026 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Middle East and North Africa Chart Pack (Apr. '26) Our Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. The Iran war will result in sharp falls in GDP in the Gulf. The closure of the... 21st April 2026 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update UAE: dollar peg not at risk Reports that the UAE is seeking a currency swap line from the US have sparked concerns about the damage to country’s external position from the war. Lower energy exports, disruption to travel and... 20th April 2026 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Will the war trigger a debt crisis in Dubai? The Iran war has already caused tourist arrivals to Dubai to collapse and, over a longer horizon, it could dampen the Emirate’s appeal to expatriate workers and firms seeking to set up in the region... 16th April 2026 · 4 mins read
Commodities Update Oil: what alternatives are there to the Strait of Hormuz? Alternative export routes – pipelines and other terminals that bypass the Strait of Hormuz – are operating at close to full capacity, diverting around 4m bpd of oil exports. In total, that’s... 15th April 2026 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update War dealing a heavy blow to the Gulf economies Timely indicators underscore the severe hit dealt to the Gulf economies by the war, with sharp declines in oil output alongside clear weakness in non-hydrocarbon sectors. Even if the war ends soon, we... 14th April 2026 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly De-escalation short-lived; Egypt committed to orthodoxy Hopes of a de-escalation between the US and Iran had been building earlier this week but were quashed by President Trump's address to the nation on Wednesday night. He said that the US would “hit them... 2nd April 2026 · 8 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Moving towards de-escalation?, Egypt‘s fuel-saving steps The Iran war seemed to be at a tipping point this time last week and recent developments provide, in the words of China’s foreign minister, “a glimmer of hope” that things are moving towards de... 26th March 2026 · 8 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Conflict at a tipping point? The conflict in the Middle East has escalated further over the past week, with damage to energy infrastructure in the region now the key concern. Comments from QatarEnergy’s CEO that LNG export... 19th March 2026 · 8 mins read
