Middle East & North Africa Economics Focus Why Dubai should bounce back The outbreak of the Iran war has threatened Dubai’s status as the Gulf’s pre-eminent financial and commercial hub, but there are already tentative signs of recovery in its economy. The pace and... 23rd September 2026 · 18 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economic Outlook Gulf set for sluggish recovery as war rumbles on A decisive end to the Iran war is still far away and, as a result, the economic recovery in the Gulf will be slow and bumpy. A return to pre-war energy exports is unlikely until at least early next... 22nd September 2026 · 17 mins read
Commodities Weekly Lessons from the pipeline attack; the Fed and commodities The net impact of the recent attack on Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline could even feasibly result in slightly higher oil flows over time. But the bigger picture is that the oil market remains in a... 18th September 2026 · 4 mins read
China Economics Weekly President Xi’s US visit: What’s on the table? We doubt that next Thursday’s summit between Presidents Trump and Xi in Washington will deliver any major breakthroughs that change the trajectory of US-China relations. The two leaders will discuss a... 18th September 2026 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly East-West pipeline, rate hikes, Morocco’s election The attack on Saudi Arabia’s East-West oil pipeline poses a downside risk to our growth forecast. The fiscal hit could also be significant, limiting scope for a policy response to support the economy... 17th September 2026 · 5 mins read
Commodities Update A bigger oil demand adjustment lies ahead Global oil demand has been surprisingly resilient so far given the scale of the supply shock. But if that resilience persists and supply from the Middle East remains constrained, a sustained period of... 16th September 2026 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Counting the fiscal cost to the Gulf from the Iran war The disruption to energy flows from the Iran war will cause government budget balances to improve in Oman and the UAE (high prices have more than offset the impact on export volumes). But balances... 15th September 2026 · 3 mins read
Commodities Update Key questions on the closure of the East-West pipeline The attack on Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline could impact up to 4% of global oil supply and each week of the pipeline’s closure could knock up to 0.3%-pts off Saudi Arabia’s GDP. Uncertainty about... 14th September 2026 · 6 mins read
Commodities Outlook Normality on hold The recovery in energy exports from the Middle East will take longer than we previously expected and is consistent with continued draws on global oil stocks as well as a further tightening in natural... 11th September 2026 · 15 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Houthi attacks, Egypt refineries, Qatar’s budget blowout The step up in attacks in the Strait of Hormuz and by the Houthis against Saudi Arabia suggests that Iran and its proxies are trying to regain the initiative in the war. This raises the risk of a... 10th September 2026 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly US-Iran strikes, bond sales, Xi in Cairo There are growing signs that the US blockade is squeezing Iran’s economy, but US and Iranian strikes this week highlight the challenge of securing a resolution to the conflict. In the meantime, the... 3rd September 2026 · 5 mins read
Commodities Weekly The good, the bad and the ugly in the oil market Reports that more crude oil has been traversing the Strait of Hormuz has eased immediate concerns about the availability of crude oil supply. Reasons for caution remain, though, as the White House's... 28th August 2026 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Egypt at centre of US-China AI tussle, Iran-Oman deal Egypt's decision over whether to have the US or China build a data centre could have ramifications for the country’s broader ties with the two superpowers and provide a framework for other EMs facing... 27th August 2026 · 5 mins read
Commodities Update Perfect storm is brewing for EU natural gas prices The recent rise in EU natural gas prices to their highest level in over three years has been driven by a combination of constrained LNG supply and hot temperatures lifting demand. Against the backdrop... 25th August 2026 · 2 mins read
Commodities Rapid Response “Economic D-Day” Sanctions (Aug. 2026) The announcement of the “greatest financial offensive ever” by the US ups the ante on Iran and could widen the divide between factions in the country. But with the renewed US naval blockade already... 24th August 2026 · 3 mins read
Commodities Weekly Crack spreads nearing a peak?; gold shines; El Niño looms While we suspect that the upward pressure on oil product price spreads could soon start to ease, this does not mean that they will necessarily come back down quickly. And even if spreads stabilise... 21st August 2026 · 4 mins read
