Middle East & North Africa Economics Update War dealing a heavy blow to the Gulf economies Timely indicators underscore the severe hit dealt to the Gulf economies by the war, with sharp declines in oil output alongside clear weakness in non-hydrocarbon sectors. Even if the war ends soon, we... 14th April 2026 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update Putting the euro-zone’s energy price shock in context In our baseline scenario, the euro-zone’s energy import bill rises by 0.4% of GDP this year, which is not unusually high. In our adverse scenario it increases by three times this amount, which is high... 14th April 2026 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Two steps forward, one step back for markets The weekend’s news is potentially another blow to markets, although investors have so far interpreted it fairly cautiously. Even in a benign scenario, though, we suspect there’s little medium-term... 13th April 2026 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Revising down our baseline UK inflation forecasts This week we have lowered our European natural gas price forecasts in our baseline scenario. As a result, we now expect UK CPI inflation to peak at around 4.0% (4.5% previously) and UK GDP to grow by... 10th April 2026 · 9 mins read
China Economics Weekly ASEAN shifting closer to China, EV demand soaring New survey data suggests that China's geopolitical influence among ASEAN economies has increased since last year amid concern over the Trump Administration's tariffs and foreign policies. Meanwhile, a... 10th April 2026 · 8 mins read
Commodities Update Brent-WTI spread would normalise if Iran conflict ends The conflict in Iran has distorted the spread between Brent and WTI crude oil prices. But if the recently agreed ceasefire holds and oil starts flowing more freely through the Strait of Hormuz, we... 9th April 2026 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update The economic consequences of a tax on Hormuz trade A tax on shipping through the Strait of Hormuz would be unlikely to have major near-term implications for global energy markets, trade or wider economic activity. But depending on how it is structured... 9th April 2026 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly The beginning of the end of war? The US-Iran ceasefire announced yesterday looks very fragile and there are major hurdles for both sides to overcome in upcoming talks to reach a lasting end to the war. If the war does end, that would... 9th April 2026 · 8 mins read
Global Commercial Property Update Retail and hospitality sectors to bear the brunt of Iran War The effects of the Iran war will feed through to property occupiers through two main channels: higher energy costs and lower household disposable income growth. The impact on sectors will vary based... 9th April 2026 · 4 mins read
Event Drop-In: What the Middle East ceasefire means for macro and markets 8th April 2026, 11:30AM BST There’s been a strong positive reaction to news of a two-week ceasefire between the US, Iran and Israel, but what does this mean for the economic and market outlook, and how far can conditions reco
Capital Daily Even a war didn’t dampen investors’ appetite for risk much If the ceasefire does mark the “beginning of the end” of the war, then the conflict will have had surprisingly little effect on risk premia in US markets. But that doesn’t mean, in our view, that they... 8th April 2026 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Could equities recover even if the war heated up further? History suggests that US equities and oil won’t necessarily hit their turning points at the same time during this conflict, but we suspect they’ll nonetheless remain closely linked in the near term. 7th April 2026 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update The indirect inflation effects of higher energy prices Beyond their direct effects on consumer prices of fuels and piped gas, higher crude oil and natural gas prices will prompt firms to pass on higher fuel costs to consumers, boosting the prices of non... 2nd April 2026 · 7 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly De-escalation short-lived; Egypt committed to orthodoxy Hopes of a de-escalation between the US and Iran had been building earlier this week but were quashed by President Trump's address to the nation on Wednesday night. He said that the US would “hit them... 2nd April 2026 · 8 mins read
