Asia Economics Update The Gulf remittance risk for Asia A prolonged conflict in the Middle East could hit remittance flows as worsening economic prospects in the Gulf weighed on demand for migrant workers. A collapse in remittances seems unlikely. But any... 13th March 2026 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Government cushioning blow from energy shock Japan’s government is capping gasoline prices at levels below last year’s average and is also releasing crude oil from stockpiles to prevent shortages. However, should crude oil prices rise much... 13th March 2026 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Why the yen hasn’t been a safe haven The yen hasn’t fared especially well over the war so far, but we suspect that reflects some particular features of the current situation and isn’t a sign its safe-haven days are over for good. 13th March 2026 · 3 mins read
Commodities Update Oil market traders bracing for prolonged disruption Extreme volatility in front-month oil prices has captured the headlines, but there have also been large moves in the shape of the oil futures curve and in the options market. As it stands, investors... 12th March 2026 · 4 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Limited signs of distress in financial markets amid Iran War While the outbreak of the war in the Middle East has led to a surge in volatility across most major asset classes, there are limited signs of distress in core money markets. That may change if the war... 12th March 2026 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Conflict will exert a heavy toll on the Gulf There remains enormous uncertainty over how the conflict in the Middle East will play out from here. But the scenarios we have laid out suggest the Gulf economies will almost certainly record negative... 12th March 2026 · 7 mins read
US Fed Watch Fed on hold as it waits for more clarity With the FOMC set to keep the fed funds target range between 3.50% and 3.75% next week, the focus will be on any changes to the policy statement and new economic projections. The most hawkish outcome... 12th March 2026 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily S&P 500 sector implications of the surge in oil prices The relative resilience of the S&P 500’s ‘big-tech’ sectors since the US and Israel attacked Iran is a stark contrast to their underperformance when oil prices surged in 2022. It might reflect... 12th March 2026 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Update How will the UK government respond to higher energy prices? This has been updated to reflect the latest developments as well as our new Baseline and Adverse scenarios. Even in our adverse scenario, we have assumed the fiscal support for households and... 12th March 2026 · 5 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Iran conflict a small downside risk to US commercial real estate returns The increase in energy costs brought about by the conflict in Iran could hit commercial real estate returns either through squeezed occupier margins and therefore weaker property demand and rent... 11th March 2026 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily The state of play in global bond markets Government bonds shrugged off US inflation data and remain at the mercy of developments in the Middle East. This Capital Daily outlines the current state of play in global government bond markets. 11th March 2026 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Where might energy subsidy bills worsen fiscal strains? The sharp rise in energy prices threatens to raise the cost of energy subsidies across many emerging markets. Those governments with the largest subsidy bills also tend to be energy producers that... 11th March 2026 · 4 mins read
Canada Economics Update What do higher oil prices mean for Canada? Higher oil prices are positive for the Canadian economy and will boost inflation but, unless prices rise significantly further and stay there for several months, we doubt the Bank of Canada would... 11th March 2026 · 6 mins read
UK Housing Market Update How could the Middle East conflict hit UK housing? The possibility of fewer interest rate cuts than we expect, or even rate hikes, and the possible hit to the economy from the surge in energy prices due to the conflict in the Middle East risks... 11th March 2026 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Policy response leaves Egypt better placed to weather war Egypt hasn’t been involved directly in the conflict in the Middle East but it is one of the most vulnerable EMs to the indirect effects, especially higher energy prices and tighter global financial... 11th March 2026 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Energy shock tests Turkey’s macro stability Turkey’s economy is better placed to face the current energy price shock than it was in 2022, but it is still among the more vulnerable EMs. A temporary price spike will only have a modest effect on... 11th March 2026 · 5 mins read
