Commodities Update Strategic reserves are no substitute for an open Strait A record-breaking release of emergency oil reserves could cushion a lack of supply from the Middle East and provide some relief to oil prices. However, this would prove temporary with prices likely to... 11th March 2026 · 4 mins read
Africa Economics Update South Africa, the Middle East conflict & the rates outlook Weak core inflation pressures in South Africa mean that the Reserve Bank is less likely to rule out monetary easing in the face of the energy price shock than most other EM central banks. If the... 11th March 2026 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Update What could the Middle East conflict mean for the UK economy? Our three scenarios show what the Middle East conflict could mean for petrol prices, utility prices, CPI inflation, GDP growth and interest rates in the UK. All of our coverage of the macro and market... 11th March 2026 · 6 mins read
Asia Economics Update Energy shock in Asia: policy choices ahead High energy prices and growing concerns over energy security have already prompted significant policy responses across Asia. Some governments are looking to introduce inflation-suppressing measures... 10th March 2026 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Putting the risk genie fully back in the bottle may take a while Hopes that an end to the war in the Gulf could be in sight appear to be growing. While that justifies the stabilisation in financial markets over the past day or so, we see three key reasons for... 10th March 2026 · 5 mins read
US Economics Focus What would $100 oil mean for the economy and Fed? The US’ position as a modest net energy exporter means a world of near $100 oil prices would not be particularly bad news for the economy. The impact on real GDP growth would still be modestly... 10th March 2026 · 14 mins read
Global Economics Update Scenarios for the Iran war & the macro impact This note assesses the macro and commodity‑market implications of three potential scenarios for the Iran war. In the most benign – a severe but short‑lived conflict – the effects on GDP, inflation and... 10th March 2026 · 7 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Market implications of three scenarios for the conflict Growing optimism that the conflict in the Middle East will be severe but short-lived has been accompanied over the past 24 hours by some retreat in the price of oil and a partial unwinding of the big... 10th March 2026 · 6 mins read
Africa Economics Update Easing sovereign debt risks bolster the region’s resilience The shock from the conflict in the Middle East has only had a modest impact on government borrowing costs in Africa, reflecting a marked improvement in sovereign risk profiles in the last few years... 10th March 2026 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update The Iran war: assessing the hit to the Gulf economies This Update takes three scenarios for how the conflict in the Middle East could play out and assesses the potential impact on the Gulf economies. In all cases, these economies would probably record... 10th March 2026 · 5 mins read
China Economics Update China well placed to weather energy price shock Events in the Middle East mean that China will have to stomach a higher import bill. But China’s economy is not especially dependent on oil and natural gas. And the country has large reserves that it... 10th March 2026 · 4 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update EZ property yields unlikely to spike if conflict in Iran is short-lived Providing the conflict in Iran is short-lived, the impact on euro-zone commercial property values is likely to be small. However, a more prolonged conflict would weigh on property demand, especially... 10th March 2026 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update Is Asia running on empty with LNG? Asian economies vary in how dependent they are on LNG from the Gulf – for China and Japan, dependence is low, while Pakistan, Taiwan and Korea have much higher exposure. Low domestic inventories leave... 10th March 2026 · 4 mins read
RBA Watch RBA will deliver back-to-back hikes in March and May We expect the Reserve Bank of Australia to raise rates by 25bp at its meeting ending on 17th March. The conditions for a sustained acceleration in inflation were in place even before the Iran conflict... 10th March 2026 · 8 mins read
Asia Economics Update Pakistan will have to hike rates if Iran crisis continues Pakistan is one of the countries most threatened by the global energy shock because of its dependence on LNG from the Gulf, a recent history of very high inflation and balance of payments weaknesses... 9th March 2026 · 3 mins read
