Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Energy price spike more bane than boon for Australia Despite being a net energy exporter, Australia is unlikely to gain much from the ongoing surge in energy prices. This is largely because oil and gas firms are not reinvesting their profits to boost... 6th March 2026 · 4 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Middle East conflict lowers odds of near-term rate hike Japan looks better placed than most Asian economies to weather the disruption to energy supply caused by the conflict in the Middle East. However, a slowdown in economic activity in other countries in... 6th March 2026 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Update What next for UK petrol and utility prices, inflation and interest rates We’ve refreshed our scenarios for what the Middle East conflict could mean for CPI inflation and also fleshed out what the leap in energy prices could mean for petrol prices, utility prices and... 5th March 2026 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Middle East conflict gives Russia an oil windfall Russia is a clear beneficiary from the conflict in the Middle East, with higher energy prices and, possibly, higher export volumes to Asia likely to narrow the budget deficit. But unless disruption to... 5th March 2026 · 4 mins read
US Economics Update Higher oil prices not the only problem for the Fed The jump in oil prices comes at a time when other indicators of near-term inflationary pressures are also beginning to look a bit more concerning. Accordingly, even if oil prices fall back sooner... 5th March 2026 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Update UK industry, hotels and retail vulnerable to rising energy costs The recent rise in the UK wholesale gas price due to the events in the Middle East, so far, points to only a modest rise in firms’ energy costs. But industry and those services sectors hit hardest by... 5th March 2026 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Middle East conflict: the state of play The conflict in the Middle East that began this week could have profound geopolitical and macroeconomic implications for the region. Energy supply from the Gulf has been severely disrupted, and non... 5th March 2026 · 6 mins read
Global Markets Update EM assets have further to fall if Iran conflict intensifies While EM financial markets have started to stabilise following the recent selloff, they are vulnerable to a further deterioration in risk sentiment. Markets in EMEA appear most exposed due to... 5th March 2026 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Update Slower UK interest rate cuts more likely than rate hikes While parallels are being made with the energy price shock caused by the Russia-Ukraine war in 2022, the rise in energy prices as a result of the conflict in the Middle East has so far been smaller... 5th March 2026 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Why Asia’s markets have been the most affected by the war East Asian equities – and Korea’s in particular – have been more sensitive to news about the war than most, but we remain cautiously optimistic about them over the medium term. 5th March 2026 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update What the Middle East conflict means for world trade The conflict in the Middle East threatens not only energy trade but also other trade flows, albeit to a lesser extent. The risk to container shipping is limited by the fact that the region was already... 4th March 2026 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Hope springs eternal in markets, even in a geopolitical storm The course of the war between the US/Israel and Iran remains unclear, but investors appear increasingly willing to look through the near-term uncertainty. 4th March 2026 · 5 mins read
Commodities Update The underlying factors shaping the oil price shock While the closure of the Strait of Hormuz dominates the near-term outlook for energy prices, shifting behaviour in the wider oil market – not least a greater willingness from India and China to import... 4th March 2026 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update How will the Middle East conflict impact tourism? The conflict in the Middle East risks damaging the perception of safety in the region’s tourist hubs, especially in the Gulf. History shows that such crises can trigger steep declines in visitor... 4th March 2026 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Could higher energy prices trigger an EM crisis? The energy price shock caused by the conflict in the Middle East will worsen current account positions in net energy-importing EMs. But unlike recent energy shocks, the external balance sheets of most... 4th March 2026 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Dubai’s paradise punctured? Iran’s attacks over the past few days have struck at the heart of Dubai’s economy. The near-term hit to GDP could be larger than in other parts of the Gulf (although that will depend on the length of... 3rd March 2026 · 4 mins read
