Capital Daily The state of play in global bond markets Government bonds shrugged off US inflation data and remain at the mercy of developments in the Middle East. This Capital Daily outlines the current state of play in global government bond markets. 11th March 2026 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Where might energy subsidy bills worsen fiscal strains? The sharp rise in energy prices threatens to raise the cost of energy subsidies across many emerging markets. Those governments with the largest subsidy bills also tend to be energy producers that... 11th March 2026 · 4 mins read
Canada Economics Update What do higher oil prices mean for Canada? Higher oil prices are positive for the Canadian economy and will boost inflation but, unless prices rise significantly further and stay there for several months, we doubt the Bank of Canada would... 11th March 2026 · 6 mins read
UK Housing Market Update How could the Middle East conflict hit UK housing? The possibility of fewer interest rate cuts than we expect, or even rate hikes, and the possible hit to the economy from the surge in energy prices due to the conflict in the Middle East risks... 11th March 2026 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Policy response leaves Egypt better placed to weather war Egypt hasn’t been involved directly in the conflict in the Middle East but it is one of the most vulnerable EMs to the indirect effects, especially higher energy prices and tighter global financial... 11th March 2026 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Energy shock tests Turkey’s macro stability Turkey’s economy is better placed to face the current energy price shock than it was in 2022, but it is still among the more vulnerable EMs. A temporary price spike will only have a modest effect on... 11th March 2026 · 5 mins read
Commodities Update Strategic reserves are no substitute for an open Strait A record-breaking release of emergency oil reserves could cushion a lack of supply from the Middle East and provide some relief to oil prices. However, this would prove temporary with prices likely to... 11th March 2026 · 4 mins read
Africa Economics Update South Africa, the Middle East conflict & the rates outlook Weak core inflation pressures in South Africa mean that the Reserve Bank is less likely to rule out monetary easing in the face of the energy price shock than most other EM central banks. If the... 11th March 2026 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Update What could the Middle East conflict mean for the UK economy? Our three scenarios show what the Middle East conflict could mean for petrol prices, utility prices, CPI inflation, GDP growth and interest rates in the UK. All of our coverage of the macro and market... 11th March 2026 · 6 mins read
Asia Economics Update Energy shock in Asia: policy choices ahead High energy prices and growing concerns over energy security have already prompted significant policy responses across Asia. Some governments are looking to introduce inflation-suppressing measures... 10th March 2026 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Putting the risk genie fully back in the bottle may take a while Hopes that an end to the war in the Gulf could be in sight appear to be growing. While that justifies the stabilisation in financial markets over the past day or so, we see three key reasons for... 10th March 2026 · 5 mins read
US Economics Focus What would $100 oil mean for the economy and Fed? The US’ position as a modest net energy exporter means a world of near $100 oil prices would not be particularly bad news for the economy. The impact on real GDP growth would still be modestly... 10th March 2026 · 14 mins read
Global Economics Update Scenarios for the Iran war & the macro impact This note assesses the macro and commodity‑market implications of three potential scenarios for the Iran war. In the most benign – a severe but short‑lived conflict – the effects on GDP, inflation and... 10th March 2026 · 7 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Market implications of three scenarios for the conflict Growing optimism that the conflict in the Middle East will be severe but short-lived has been accompanied over the past 24 hours by some retreat in the price of oil and a partial unwinding of the big... 10th March 2026 · 6 mins read
Africa Economics Update Easing sovereign debt risks bolster the region’s resilience The shock from the conflict in the Middle East has only had a modest impact on government borrowing costs in Africa, reflecting a marked improvement in sovereign risk profiles in the last few years... 10th March 2026 · 3 mins read
