Commodities Update Brent-WTI spread would normalise if Iran conflict ends The conflict in Iran has distorted the spread between Brent and WTI crude oil prices. But if the recently agreed ceasefire holds and oil starts flowing more freely through the Strait of Hormuz, we... 9th April 2026 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update The economic consequences of a tax on Hormuz trade A tax on shipping through the Strait of Hormuz would be unlikely to have major near-term implications for global energy markets, trade or wider economic activity. But depending on how it is structured... 9th April 2026 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly The beginning of the end of war? The US-Iran ceasefire announced yesterday looks very fragile and there are major hurdles for both sides to overcome in upcoming talks to reach a lasting end to the war. If the war does end, that would... 9th April 2026 · 8 mins read
Global Commercial Property Update Retail and hospitality sectors to bear the brunt of Iran War The effects of the Iran war will feed through to property occupiers through two main channels: higher energy costs and lower household disposable income growth. The impact on sectors will vary based... 9th April 2026 · 4 mins read
Event Drop-In: What the Middle East ceasefire means for macro and markets 8th April 2026, 11:30AM BST There’s been a strong positive reaction to news of a two-week ceasefire between the US, Iran and Israel, but what does this mean for the economic and market outlook, and how far can conditions reco
Capital Daily Even a war didn’t dampen investors’ appetite for risk much If the ceasefire does mark the “beginning of the end” of the war, then the conflict will have had surprisingly little effect on risk premia in US markets. But that doesn’t mean, in our view, that they... 8th April 2026 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Could equities recover even if the war heated up further? History suggests that US equities and oil won’t necessarily hit their turning points at the same time during this conflict, but we suspect they’ll nonetheless remain closely linked in the near term. 7th April 2026 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update The indirect inflation effects of higher energy prices Beyond their direct effects on consumer prices of fuels and piped gas, higher crude oil and natural gas prices will prompt firms to pass on higher fuel costs to consumers, boosting the prices of non... 2nd April 2026 · 7 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly De-escalation short-lived; Egypt committed to orthodoxy Hopes of a de-escalation between the US and Iran had been building earlier this week but were quashed by President Trump's address to the nation on Wednesday night. He said that the US would “hit them... 2nd April 2026 · 8 mins read
Commodities Weekly Iran conflict impact extends beyond energy commodities The risks to commodity prices from the conflict in the Middle East extend beyond oil and natural gas with aluminium plants in the Gulf sustaining damage. That could keep aluminium prices higher than... 2nd April 2026 · 7 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Spillovers from war could tip Tunisia towards crisis Spillovers from the Iran war threaten to exacerbate existing strains in Tunisia’s economy. If officials continue to maintain a tight grip on the dinar, macroeconomic imbalances are likely to build... 2nd April 2026 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Chart Pack Global Economics Chart pack - Iran Conflict Edition (April 2026) The impact of the surge in energy prices on the global economy will depend on the extent of any disruption to energy flows, which remains highly uncertain. Europe and Asia are more exposed than the US... 2nd April 2026 · 1 min read
Capital Daily What a “very soon” end to the war could mean for markets De-escalation hopes have given markets a lift, but we think the effects of the war would, in many cases, persist even if the war did end soon. 1st April 2026 · 4 mins read
Equities Update Reasons for caution on US energy equities The energy sector has been the strongest performing sector of the S&P 500 since the conflict in the Middle East began, but our baseline assumption is that most of this outperformance will unwind over... 31st March 2026 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update What are the potential implications of Houthi Attacks? While the direct effect of renewed strikes on shipping in the Red Sea on aggregate world trade is likely to be limited, the impact on Asian economies that rely more heavily on oil imports from Saudi... 31st March 2026 · 4 mins read
