Commodities Weekly A recipe for oil (and fuel) price volatility While the flare up in military activity in the Middle East does not change our forecast for oil prices to trend lower next year, the latest developments support our view that energy prices will... 10th July 2026 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly MoU on the rocks, Saudi-UAE tensions, Egypt state control The US-Iran memorandum of understanding has come under further strain this week, raising the risk that the recovery in the Gulf economies gets derailed. Elsewhere, geopolitical tensions between Saudi... 9th July 2026 · 5 mins read
Commodities Update US-Iran strikes are a reminder of upside risks to prices The latest exchange of military strikes in the Middle East supports our view that oil prices will be volatile over the coming months, and will face bouts of upward pressure. That said, under the... 8th July 2026 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Strait traffic, Saudi’s fiscal challenge, Morocco GDP Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has continued to pick up and contributed to a further dip in oil prices over the past week, which feeds into our view that Saudi Arabia won't provide significant... 2nd July 2026 · 6 mins read
Global Economic Outlook US strength points to renewed policy divergence With risks surrounding the Iran conflict receding, the focus is shifting back to domestic economic fundamentals, which point to widening growth and policy divergence across the major economies. The US... 30th June 2026 · 45 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Middle East and North Africa Chart Pack (June '26) The US-Iran deal will allow the Gulf economies to begin a recovery. But it will take time for oil production and other sectors, such as tourism, to recover to pre-war levels. Most growth forecasts for... 29th June 2026 · 1 min read
China Economics Weekly China relaxing restrictions on refined fuel exports China's government will reportedly ease its restrictions on refined fuel exports further next month. That should be reflected in increased refinery output, but it will only support China's crude oil... 26th June 2026 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Strait traffic latest, more OPEC exits, refreshed forecasts Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is picking up but, so far, there are more vessels leaving the Gulf than entering it. Alongside possible technical issues with restarting energy facilities, the... 25th June 2026 · 5 mins read
Event Drop-In: Middle East Outlook – The Gulf economies after the conflict 30th June 2026, 10:00AM BST What does the end of the Iran conflict mean for the Gulf economies? How quickly can they restore energy production to pre-war levels? How has the fighting reshaped their longer-term outlooks?
Commodities Outlook Beyond Hormuz: the path back to an oil glut Investors have already priced in much of the good news on the recovery in Gulf energy exports, leaving scope for some volatility in prices, and even price rises, over Q3 and Q4. Beyond this, while... 24th June 2026 · 16 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economic Outlook Effects of the Iran war will be felt for years to come The re-opening of the Strait of Hormuz will trigger a recovery in the Gulf economies, but the damage already inflicted means these economies will still record sharp falls in GDP over this year as a... 23rd June 2026 · 17 mins read
Capital Daily Strait jitters, bond divergence, and more UK politics Renewed US-Iran tensions have caused a bit of concern in markets at the start of the week, but as long as negotiations press ahead, global bonds could continue to diverge both from oil prices and from... 22nd June 2026 · 6 mins read
Commodities Weekly US-Iran MoU brings oil glut back on the cards in 2027 Oil prices have fallen sharply following the US-Iran agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Our view is that, while there is limited scope for significant price declines over the coming months, an... 19th June 2026 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly MOU and the path to recovery, Egyptian pound rallies The memorandum of understanding (MOU) signed by the US and Iran to extend the ceasefire and re-open the Strait of Hormuz is a major step towards a resolution of the conflict and a recovery in Gulf... 18th June 2026 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Focus The long-term legacy of the war for the Gulf The effects of the Iran war on the Gulf economies will last well beyond this year’s hit to GDP. The war is likely to incentivise efforts to raise oil supply – and not just via the Strait of Hormuz –... 16th June 2026 · 16 mins read
Global Economics Update Higher inflation baked in regardless of US-Iran deal If the US-Iran deal holds and oil prices remain at their new, lower level, this will swiftly lower fuel inflation. However, this drag on headline inflation would be offset – outside the US, at least –... 16th June 2026 · 4 mins read
