Event Drop-In: Global macro update – Is an adverse economic scenario becoming more likely? 6th May 2026, 2:00PM BST There are still no clear signs of a near-term reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Even when it does reopen, uncertainty remains over how quickly physical energy supply can recover. As a result...
Commodities Weekly UAE proves Neil Sedaka wrong; Hormuz in limbo The UAE’s decision to leave OPEC+ demonstrates that “breaking up” with the group is not hard to do and fits with our existing view that the ties binding OPEC members together are loosening. The news... 1st May 2026 · 4 mins read
India Economics Weekly Aviation sector under increasing stress Unlike the cost of automotive fuel, aviation fuel costs in India have been rising since the start of the Iran war, particularly for international flights. With airlines' margins under pressure - and... 1st May 2026 · 3 mins read
China Economics Weekly Some signs of easing manufacturing overcapacity The protection that Chinese firms are receiving from high global energy prices, alongside surging overseas chip demand, have pushed up profit margins in Chinese industry and resulted in a slight... 1st May 2026 · 5 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update RICS survey points to higher UK property yields from Iran war The Q1 RICS survey showed surveyors don’t expect the Iran conflict to have an impact on occupier demand across any of the major sectors. That said, there was a deterioration in capital value... 30th April 2026 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update How has the war affected the Gulf’s external positions? The impact of the war on balance of payments positions across the Gulf varies by country. Kuwait, Qatar and Bahrain are suffering severe blows due to the halt to their energy exports, and their... 30th April 2026 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly OPEC minus, US blockade The surprise announcement that the UAE will be leaving OPEC+ points to a world in which global oil supplies are likely to be higher and prices lower over the medium term (and once the Strait of Hormuz... 30th April 2026 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Rapid Response Saudi Arabia GDP (Q1 2026, Flash Estimate) The 1.5% q/q fall in Saudi GDP in Q1 confirmed that spillovers from the Iran war are taking a heavy toll on the economy. This is the flash estimate and the figures could be subject to revision. More... 30th April 2026 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update How long can Iran hold out? The US blockade has cut Iran’s financial lifeline and strains are growing in its balance of payments. Estimates of Iran’s accessible FX reserves suggest that these cover no more than three months’ of... 29th April 2026 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Two threats to bonds that aren’t rate hikes or fiscal crises With the major central banks lining up to talk tough on inflation this week, and investors on edge about fiscal problems in many places, we think there are some other growing medium-term risks facing... 29th April 2026 · 4 mins read
Commodities Rapid Response UAE's exit from OPEC could be the thin end of the wedge 28th April 2026 · 2 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Three questions for markets, two months into the crisis With disruptions to global energy markets now having lasted two months this Update asks, and answers, three key questions about how financial markets have fared so far. First, why have equities... 28th April 2026 · 6 mins read
China Economics Weekly Domestic impact of higher oil prices remains limited The war in Iran seems to have had limited impact on China's economy so far. The government has insulated end-users from much of the price shock - indeed, it cut retail prices this week - and the... 24th April 2026 · 5 mins read
Commodities Weekly Oil buffers are depleting amid extended ceasefires Despite recent extensions of ceasefires in the Middle East, traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains at a near standstill and Brent crude oil prices are back above $100pb. The impact from the... 24th April 2026 · 4 mins read
Global Commercial Property Update CRE construction cost rises most impactful in retail and hotels Commercial real estate construction costs are already showing signs of rising due to the Iran war. While this will weigh on profitability of new projects, the impact will vary by sector, with retail... 23rd April 2026 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Stalemate, swap lines and slumps Prospects for a swift end to the Iran war were dented this week as divisions within the Iranian regime hinder Tehran’s efforts to put forward a coherent, unified position in negotiations. And as a... 23rd April 2026 · 6 mins read
