We will wait for more clarity on events in the Middle East before altering our inflation, GDP and Bank Rate forecasts. But in a scenario in which oil and gas prices remain close to current levels until May, we would probably raise our 2026 CPI inflation forecast from 2.1% to 2.4%, nudge down our 2026 GDP growth forecast from 1.0% to 0.8% and raise our end-2026 Bank Rate forecast from 3.00% to 3.25%.
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