Emerging Europe Economics Update Poland: risk of fiscal complacency creeping in The Polish government’s white paper on Monday set out a scathing review of the previous government’s fiscal record and highlighted the challenges facing the public finances, but if we’ve learned... 30th April 2024 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Economic Sentiment Indicators (Apr.) The European Commission's Economic Sentiment Indicators for Central and Eastern Europe were a mixed bag in April, but our regional GDP-weighted measure of sentiment rose to a fresh two-year high... 29th April 2024 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Emerging Europe Chart Pack (Apr. 2024) Our Emerging Europe Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. The paring back of expectations for interest rate cuts in advanced economies this month... 25th April 2024 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Poland Activity Data (Mar.) Poland’s weaker-than-expected activity data for March suggest the risk to our forecast for GDP growth of 2.5% y/y in Q1 (up from 1.0% y/y in Q4) are tilted to the downside. While we maintain our above... 23rd April 2024 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Israel-Iran strikes, Poland utility prices, IMF forecasts Tensions between Israel and Iran ratcheted up this week, although there's at least hope that both sides are now trying to avoid any further escalation. For Israel’s economy, the pressing issue is the... 19th April 2024 · 9 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update What do Germany’s struggles mean for CEE? The continued weakness in the German economy that we expect over the rest of this decade presents a challenge to the export-orientated economies of Central and Eastern Europe (CEE). While GDP growth... 18th April 2024 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Higher oil prices bolster Russia’s war economy The latest rise in oil prices presents challenges to the near-term outlook for most countries in Emerging Europe by weakening their terms of trade and pushing up inflation – which already looked set... 12th April 2024 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update CEE inflation to rebound before long While inflation fell further across Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) in March, we think that the recent run of good CPI news is largely over. We expect inflation to rise back above central banks’... 11th April 2024 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Public finances now a growing concern in parts of CEE The larger-than-expected 2023 budget deficit figures released across parts of Central Europe this week underline our concerns about the fiscal challenges facing the region. The need for fiscal... 5th April 2024 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Poland Interest Rate Announcement (Apr.) The National Bank of Poland (NBP) left its policy rate on hold at 5.75% today as it looked through the recent sharp drop in inflation in March. We think a rebound in inflation in the second half of... 4th April 2024 · 2 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update CEE industrial rents to trail the rest of Europe The CEE industrial market cooled in 2023 as economic activity stagnated. This year will herald an economic recovery but we don’t think it will be stop the rent growth slowdown. Demand is anticipated... 4th April 2024 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Manufacturing PMIs (Mar.) The manufacturing PMIs rose across Central and Eastern Europe in March but they remain consistent with a relatively weak recovery. 2nd April 2024 · 2 mins read
Climate Economics Monthly Five highlights from March This Monthly looks at five highlights from the Climate Economics service in March, including the launches of our New Three Export Indices and our second annual Climate Economics Outlook. 28th March 2024 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Emerging Europe Chart Pack (Mar. 24) Our Emerging Europe Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Inflation continued to fall across Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) last month and in most... 27th March 2024 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Overheating in Russia and Turkey, recoveries in CEE Economies in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) ended last year in stagnation, but headwinds to growth are lifting and we think that 2024 will be a year of modest recovery. Inflation has fallen sharply... 26th March 2024 · 22 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Tusk’s first 100 days, CBRT’s pre-election surprise The new Polish government (which marks its 100 day milestone today) has successfully unblocked EU funds and delivered a wave of optimism that has helped Poland's financial markets outperform those in... 22nd March 2024 · 7 mins read
