The National Bank of Poland’s plans to raise gold’s allocation in its FX reserves to 30% highlights that there is no shortage of gold buyers, which could help lift prices well beyond their latest record high. Meanwhile, the rumour mill has been running at full speed ahead of this weekend’s OPEC+ meeting. Our assumption is that OPEC+ will take a breather and only raise output further from Q2 2026. In any case, though, the bigger picture is that the group has firmly shifted to a strategy of capturing market share and we remain happy with our long-held below-consensus oil price forecasts.
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