The UAE’s decision to leave OPEC+ demonstrates that “breaking up” with the group is not hard to do and fits with our existing view that the ties binding OPEC members together are loosening. The news seems unlikely to trigger a wider exodus from the group at this stage. And given the ongoing effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, the announcement has had little influence on oil prices so far. But the loss of the UAE raises further question marks over the future role and influence of OPEC+ in the global oil market.
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