Emerging Europe Economics Focus What’s behind the weakness in Polish inflation? The surprising softness in Polish inflation this year can be explained partly by lower energy inflation, but also by steep declines in the prices of some durable goods. The latter probably won’t last... 17th November 2025 · 12 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Orban enters election mode Pre-election fiscal loosening is in full swing in Hungary and, with four months still to go until voting, the risk is that more giveaways are announced, which pushes risk premia on public debt even... 14th November 2025 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Poland GDP (Q3 2025) The strong 0.8% q/q growth recorded in Poland in Q3 confirms that it remains one of the fastest growing economies in the EU and suggests that the risks to our near-term GDP forecasts lie to the upside... 13th November 2025 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly NBP interest rate cuts, diverging growth outlook The communications following the decision by the National Bank of Poland (NBP) this week to cut its policy rate by 25bp, to 4.25%, suggest that the risk to our forecast for the policy rate to bottom... 7th November 2025 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Poland Interest Rate Announcement (Nov.) The National Bank of Poland cut its policy rate by 25bp today, to 4.25%, but we think the monetary easing cycle doesn’t have much further to go. We’re maintaining our forecast for only one more 25bp... 5th November 2025 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Emerging Europe Manufacturing PMIs (Oct.) The weak manufacturing PMIs out of Emerging Europe in October, at face value, signal further difficulties for the region’s industrial sectors. But the PMIs haven’t been the most reliable guide to the... 3rd November 2025 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Czech strength, Russia banking risks, NBP meeting Data released this week suggest that the Czech economic recovery is continuing to gather momentum. The risks to our GDP growth forecasts there have shifted to the upside and the central bank's easing... 31st October 2025 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Poland’s credit engine still misfiring The 30%-pts of GDP decline in Poland’s private sector debt-to-GDP ratio since its recent peak is on a scale typically associated with the aftermath of banking crises. The reasons are more benign in... 30th October 2025 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response CEE Economic Sentiment Indicators (Oct.) The European Commission’s Economic Sentiment Indicators for Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) suggest that growth in the region as a whole held up relatively well at the start of Q4. But there has been... 30th October 2025 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Emerging Europe Chart Pack (Oct. 2025) Our Emerging Europe Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. The latest data suggest that GDP growth in Central and Eastern Europe generally remained... 23rd October 2025 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Ceasefire in Gaza, NBP’s dovish surprise The ceasefire in Gaza which came into force today will, if it proves lasting, support the ongoing recovery in Israel’s economy and makes an interest rate cut by the central bank at its next meeting... 10th October 2025 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Poland Interest Rate Announcement (Oct.) The decision by the National Bank of Poland to cut its policy rate by 25bp today, to 4.50%, was a dovish surprise to most analysts (including ourselves), although we think the scope for further... 8th October 2025 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Emerging Europe Manufacturing PMIs (Sep.) The weak batch of manufacturing PMIs out of Emerging Europe in September suggest that industrial activity in the region is continuing to be held back by weak external demand. The surveys also suggests... 1st October 2025 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Emerging Europe Chart Pack (Sep. 2025) Our Emerging Europe Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. The latest data suggest that GDP growth in Central and Eastern Europe remained resilient... 29th September 2025 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response CEE Economic Sentiment Indicators (Sep.) The European Commission’s Economic Sentiment Indicators for Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) were a mixed bag in September, but our regional measure of sentiment rose to a three-month high and points... 29th September 2025 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Stagnation in Russia, fragile recoveries in CEE The economies of Emerging Europe will diverge over the coming year as Russia’s war economy continues to run out of steam, while growth in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) picks up – albeit to varying... 18th September 2025 · 22 mins read
