Emerging Europe Rapid Response Poland Activity Data (Jul.) The weaker-than-expected batch of Polish activity figures for July is more likely to be a blip than the start of a soft patch. We remain comfortable with our view that Poland’s economy will expand by... 22nd August 2024 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Polish outperformance The standout feature of the data released in the region this week was the strength of Polish GDP in Q2 – the economy is now comfortably outperforming its peers in the region. The most plausible... 16th August 2024 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Poland GDP (Q2 2024) The larger-than-expected pick-up in Polish GDP growth in Q2, to 1.5% q/q (from 0.8% in Q1), suggests that the risks to our forecast for GDP to expand by 3% over the year as a whole are now tilted to... 14th August 2024 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Emerging Europe & the mid-summer market turmoil Global financial markets have unwound some of the big moves from late last week and early this week, and we doubt the latest market gyrations will change the economic or policymaking outlook much in... 9th August 2024 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Manufacturing PMIs (Jul.) The manufacturing PMIs for July suggest that industrial sectors lost a bit of momentum in Turkey and Russia at the start of Q3, although demand conditions still appear very strong in Russia. In both... 1st August 2024 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Poland Activity Data (Jun.) Poland’s retail sales data released today were slightly weaker than expected, but the big picture is that the whole set of activity data for June suggest that the economic recovery has remained... 22nd July 2024 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Current account deficits, MNB rate cut guidance Balance of payments data out of Central and Eastern Europe this week showed unexpected current account deficits in Poland and Czechia in May, but the big picture is that external positions are... 19th July 2024 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Emerging Europe Chart Pack (Jul. 2024) Our Emerging Europe Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. The latest data out of Emerging Europe suggest that economic growth in Central Europe... 18th July 2024 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Hungary fiscal tightening, June inflation re-cap Hungary’s fiscal tightening measures announced this week are a step in the right direction, but we are sceptical that the deficit will come down far enough to put the public debt ratio onto a... 12th July 2024 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update CEE inflation data less encouraging than it seems At first sight, the latest CPI data out of Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) might seem to provide central banks reason for comfort. But a look under the surface paints a more worrying picture... 10th July 2024 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly The hawks come out in their droves Inflation data out of the region this week as well as comments from central bank officials strengthen our view that interest rates are likely to be hiked again in some places (potentially as large as... 5th July 2024 · 6 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Latest trade data spell good news for Iberian ports Timely estimates of trade through Europe’s busiest seaports so far this year have broadly mirrored relative economic performance across Europe, as volumes through Iberia’s ports have recovered while... 4th July 2024 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Poland Interest Rate Announcement (Jul.) The decision by Poland’s central bank (NBP) to leave its policy rate at 5.75% today came as no surprise and we doubt that policymakers will have scope to lower interest rates until the middle of next... 3rd July 2024 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Emerging Europe Manufacturing PMIs (Jun.) The manufacturing PMIs for June provide encouraging signs that a rebalancing of Turkey’s economy is underway, with domestic demand weakening and inflation pressures softening. But in Russia, the... 1st July 2024 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly French election spillovers, Turkey’s inflation descent The first round of the French election taking place this weekend could put further upward pressure on bond yields in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE), particularly if concerns about the direction for... 28th June 2024 · 8 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Poland Activity Data (May) The Polish activity data for May were a mixed bag with retail sales bouncing back, while industry suffered a renewed contraction. With domestic demand likely to stay strong over the coming months, we... 24th June 2024 · 2 mins read
