Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Israel rate cut bets increase, key stories from Q3 GDP Data for October out of Israel this week suggest that the initial impact of the conflict with Hamas on the export sector was fairly limited, that inflation pressures continued to ease and that the... 17th November 2023 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Central & Eastern Europe GDP (Q3 2023) Q3 GDP figures out of Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) showed a mixed performance across the region, but as a whole CEE economies appear to be past the worst of the downturn. With households’ real... 14th November 2023 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Hawkish CEE central banks, EU expanding further east Communications from central bankers across Central and Eastern Europe this week struck a decisively hawkish tone, suggesting that interest rates could be left on hold across most of the region in the... 10th November 2023 · 9 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update CEE sovereign debt dynamics becoming more fragile Governments across Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) need to deliver significant fiscal tightening over the coming years to prevent public debt ratios from grinding higher. The risk of an imminent... 9th November 2023 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Poland Interest Rate Announcement (Nov.) 8th November 2023 · 2 mins read
Climate Economics Monthly Tusk tasked with decarbonising Poland; IEA optimism Donald Tusk and his pro-EU coalition are making the right noises about phasing out coal usage in Poland, although it remains to be seen how his plans will survive contact with politically powerful... 31st October 2023 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Poland Consumer Prices (Oct. Flash Estimate) The drop in Polish inflation to 6.5% y/y in October was larger than expected and should pave the way for another 25bp interest rate cut by the central bank next week (to 5.50%). 31st October 2023 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Economic Sentiment Indicators (Oct.) The European Commission's Economic Sentiment Indicators for Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) were another mixed bag in October, but our regional GDP-weighted measure edged up and is consistent with an... 30th October 2023 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Fiscal support coming in Israel, Tusk’s election win There remains significant uncertainty over how the Israel-Hamas war will evolve, but developments this week confirm that fiscal policy will be loosened as policymakers provide support to the military... 20th October 2023 · 9 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Poland Activity Data (Sep.) Poland’s stronger-than-expected activity data for September suggest that the economy started on its road to recovery in Q3. With inflation and interest rates falling, we expect GDP growth to... 20th October 2023 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Emerging Europe Chart Pack (Oct. 2023) Our Emerging Europe Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Russia and Turkey had a strong first half to the year, but large policy tightening is... 19th October 2023 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Poland's election: opposition on track for victory The exit poll from Poland’s parliamentary election on Sunday suggests that the incumbent PiS will fall short of forming a majority and that the pro-EU opposition will be able to form a coalition... 16th October 2023 · 4 mins read
Commodities Update Ukraine’s grain exports will struggle to stay afloat The price of wheat and corn will stay historically high for now, as Russia’s withdrawal from the Black Sea Grain Initiative has re-ignited concerns about supply from Ukraine. We think that prices will... 11th October 2023 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Poland's election: a fork in the road The outcome of Poland’s parliamentary election this Sunday will likely have a key bearing on the direction of economic policy, Poland’s relationship with the EU and support for Ukraine in the coming... 11th October 2023 · 25 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Turkey rebalancing, UAH, Glapinski’s guidance Data out of Turkey this week provided some of the first clear signs that the recent policy U-turn is starting to rebalance the economy. This couldn’t come any sooner – Turkey remains among the most... 6th October 2023 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Poland Interest Rate Announcement (Oct.) The National Bank of Poland’s (NBP’s) decision to cut interest rates again today, from 6.00% to 5.75%, suggests that the doves are ruling the roost on the MPC, but we think that interest rates... 4th October 2023 · 2 mins read
