India Economics Update Finance Ministry continues to show fiscal restraint Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman has shown a commitment to fiscal consolidation while for the most part placating the BJP’s coalition partners in today’s FY24/25 Union Budget announcement. There is... 23rd July 2024 · 3 mins read
India Economics Update New forecasts for inflation and policy rates The upside surprise to headline consumer price inflation last month has all but ended hopes of a rate cut at the RBI’s August policy meeting. But we think that the conditions will be in place for... 16th July 2024 · 3 mins read
India Economics Update Services export boom has an AI sting in the tail Much of the strength of India’s external position over recent years can be explained by robust growth in its services exports, in particular its business process outsourcing (BPO) sector. The near... 9th July 2024 · 3 mins read
India Economics Update Infrastructure drive likely to continue under Modi 3.0 The ramp-up in public capital expenditure in the last five years has helped to ease some of the bottlenecks that had previously acted as a constraint on India’s economy. Despite the Modi government’s... 11th June 2024 · 4 mins read
India Economics Update RBI still on course for August rate cut The RBI kept the repo rate on hold at 6.50% today as expected but, notably, two of out of the six MPC members voted for a cut. With inflation likely to continue falling over the coming months, we... 7th June 2024 · 3 mins read
Asset Allocation Update The implications of Modi 3.0 for India’s equity market India’s election result isn’t, in our view, reason to turn downbeat on the country’s equity market, its wobbles earlier this week notwithstanding. But with a very positive story seemingly still priced... 6th June 2024 · 4 mins read
India Economics Update What Modi 3.0 means for India's economy Narendra Modi will begin his third term as India’s Prime Minister with a weakened mandate and that will make the passage of contentious economic reforms more difficult. But he will still be able to... 4th June 2024 · 3 mins read
India Economics Update China’s threat to Indian manufacturing India has made impressive progress in raising its share of global high-end electronics exports over the past few years. But, worryingly, it has failed to capture any additional market share in the... 23rd May 2024 · 5 mins read
India Economics Update India’s geopolitical balancing act India is benefitting economically from maintaining its historical non-aligned stance in response to tensions between the West and Russia, and Iran to a lesser extent. But notwithstanding a potential... 16th May 2024 · 6 mins read
Global Economics Update What the latest US tariffs mean for the global economy We held an online Drop-In session today to discuss the Biden administration’s new tariffs on goods from China. This Update answers several of the questions that we received about the direct effects of... 15th May 2024 · 6 mins read
India Economics Update Economic implications of the heatwave Extreme heat across parts of India could be particularly damaging to the agriculture sector through both a drop in crop yields and a fall in labour productivity. But industry and services aren’t... 9th May 2024 · 3 mins read
India Economics Update RBI policy pivot creeping closer The RBI kept the repo rate on hold at 6.50% today as expected but the more interesting aspect was the slight dialling down of its hawkish rhetoric. With inflation grinding down towards the central... 5th April 2024 · 2 mins read
India Economics Update India to lead EM rise up the global GDP rankings EMs will account for over half of global GDP within the next decade and almost 60% by 2050. Headlining this, India will become the world’s third-largest economy as soon as 2026. More generally, EMs... 11th March 2024 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update Another good year could be in store for India’s markets We expect India’s stocks, bonds, and currency to rally over the remainder of this year. In view of the broader interest, we are sending this Global Markets Update to clients of our Asset Allocation... 16th February 2024 · 4 mins read
India Economics Update RBI not ready to pivot yet The RBI kept the repo rate on hold at 6.50% today as expected and continued to strike a hawkish tone. With the economy holding up well and inflation likely to remain above the 4% target for a few more... 8th February 2024 · 3 mins read
India Economics Update Finance Ministry shows restraint as election looms Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman appears to have successfully demonstrated a long-term commitment of reining in the fiscal deficit in the Interim Budget announcement for FY24/25. There is always a... 1st February 2024 · 3 mins read
