India Economics Update Which states could benefit from “friend-shoring”? In a fracturing global economy, India stands out as a prime location for the “friend-shoring” of manufacturing supply chains out of China. The manufacturing powerhouses of Gujarat and Tamil Nadu are... 23rd May 2023 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Takeaways from our EM roundtables Over the past couple of weeks we have held a series of roundtable discussions with clients across Asia and North America on the outlook for EMs. In this Update we provide our thoughts on the recurring... 19th May 2023 · 6 mins read
India Economics Update Rise in unsecured lending a growing risk The sharp rise in unsecured bank lending has probably helped to support consumption and boosted bank profitability over recent quarters. But it also leaves the banking sector at risk of rising... 16th May 2023 · 3 mins read
India Economics Update Services exports supporting external position The recent strength of services exports has helped to offset much of the impact of the drop in goods exports and – along with a pull-back in import values – is another reason to think that the current... 15th May 2023 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update How feasible is a BRICS currency? Over the weekend, President-elect Donald Trump threatened a 100% import tariff on the BRICS countries unless they pledge not to create their own currency. In this note from 2023, we outlined the... 4th May 2023 · 6 mins read
India Economics Update RBI unlikely to tighten policy any further The RBI’s decision to keep the repo rate on hold at 6.50% today belied the central bank’s recent hawkish communications. The door remains ajar for hikes in the future but with headline inflation set... 6th April 2023 · 3 mins read
India Economics Update External vulnerabilities likely to ease The widening in India’s current account deficit last year, to 2.4% of GDP, was not as significant as many had feared in the context of the surge in commodity prices. Looking ahead, we think the... 4th April 2023 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update What next after Credit Suisse? While the Credit Suisse rescue might draw a line under that particular institution’s problems, it is clear that confidence in the financial sector overall is still extremely fragile. So regardless of... 20th March 2023 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update A closer look at EMs’ exposure to bank flows A key channel through which emerging markets could be affected by the strains in the global banking sector is if lending by foreign banks falls sharply. On this front, EMs’ vulnerabilities have eased... 16th March 2023 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update The SVB collapse & contagion risks in EMs At the time of writing, financial markets appear to be stabilising after the turmoil caused by the collapse of SVB. And it doesn’t look like EMs have suffered large capital outflows or strains in... 14th March 2023 · 5 mins read
Global Markets Update We think the struggles for equities in India will resume We think MSCI’s India Index will fall over the next couple of quarters in local-currency terms, amid subdued domestic economic activity and a general deterioration in investors’ appetite for “risky”... 9th March 2023 · 3 mins read
Asset Allocation Update We still expect Indian equities to lag The Adani saga hasn’t done much to reduce the comparatively stretched valuation of India’s stock market. In our view, that means there is still scope for it to underperform over the long run. In view... 9th February 2023 · 4 mins read
India Economics Update RBI unlikely to tighten policy any further The RBI further slowed the pace of monetary tightening with a 25bp hike to the repo rate (to 6.50%) today and, though it has left the door ajar for further tightening, the softer growth outlook and... 8th February 2023 · 3 mins read
India Economics Update Budget has an eye on the long term While some of the measures unveiled in the FY23/24 Union Budget are geared towards shoring up popular support ahead of next year’s general election, there is a clear long-term focus too. The projected... 3rd February 2023 · 3 mins read
India Economics Update Finance Ministry strikes a delicate balance Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman appears to have successfully demonstrated her long-term commitment of reining in the fiscal deficit while still providing support to the economy in today’s FY23/24... 1st February 2023 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update Answers to your questions on the outlook for Em Asia We held a Drop-In today to discuss the big economic and financial market development across Emerging Asia. This Update answers several of the questions that we received, some of which we couldn’t... 26th January 2023 · 6 mins read
