If the extra 25% tariff that President Trump has announced on imports from India remains in place, India’s attractiveness as an emerging manufacturing hub will be hugely undermined. Global oil prices would probably rise if India responded by curtailing purchases from Russia. But the final impact would depend on additional considerations: whether China is willing to risk derailing détente with the US to help its ally Russia by buying even more Russian crude; whether other oil producers would increase their output to offset reduced Russian supply; and finally whether the tariff remains in place. A muted reaction in markets to the announcement suggest many think it will not.
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