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|
Main Economic & Market Forecasts |
|||||||
|
% y/y unless stated |
Latest |
Q1 2025 |
Q2 2025 |
Q3 2025 |
2025 |
2026 |
2027 |
|
GDP |
+7.4 |
+7.4 |
+7.1 |
+7.0 |
+7.0 |
+7.0 |
+6.5 |
|
Consumer Prices |
+2.8* |
+3.7 |
+3.1 |
+3.6 |
+3.6 |
+4.6 |
+4.7 |
|
Current Account (4Q Sum, % of GDP) |
-0.9 |
-1.3 |
-1.4 |
-1.3 |
-1.5 |
-1.5 |
-1.5 |
|
Repo Rate† % |
5.50 |
6.25 |
5.50 |
5.50 |
5.50 |
6.00 |
6.00 |
|
Standing Deposit Facility† % |
5.25 |
6.00 |
5.25 |
5.25 |
5.25 |
5.75 |
5.75 |
|
Cash Reserve Ratio† % |
3.00 |
4.00 |
3.00 |
3.00 |
3.00 |
3.00 |
3.00 |
|
10-Yr Government Bond Yield† % |
6.30 |
6.60 |
6.40 |
6.25 |
6.25 |
6.25 |
6.25 |
|
INR/US$† |
85.5 |
85.5 |
86.1 |
86.7 |
88.0 |
90.0 |
90.0 |
|
Sensex |
82,055 |
77,415 |
82,100 |
83,800 |
87,000 |
95,000 |
97,000 |
|
Sources: Bloomberg, CEIC, Capital Economics; *May; †End of period. |
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Mark Williams is Chief Asia Economist at Capital Economics, leading a team of analysts based in Singapore and London. He has three decades of experience covering the region, with a particular focus on China's economy and financial markets. Mark’s work is regularly cited in the Economist, Financial Times, Wall Street Journal and New York Times. Mark and his team have developed a reputation for building innovative indicators to track important trends, including their China Activity Proxy, which has become widely followed since it was first published in 2009; more recently a gauge of tariff re-routing activity; and their Global Fracturing database that tracks how geopolitical shifts are affecting global trade and financial flows. Before joining Capital Economics, Mark was at HM Treasury in London. He has degrees in Chinese and Economics from the universities of Edinburgh and Oxford.
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