Asia Economics Focus Will Asia benefit from China's plunging US exports? Parts of South East Asia, notably Vietnam, as well as India are well placed to immediately gain market share in response to penal US tariffs on Chinese imports. But uncertainty over the future tariff... 29th April 2025 · 14 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Asia Weekly: Korea construction slump, BI on hold Korea’s economy remains in the doldrums, with figures published earlier this week showing the economy contracted by 0.2% in the first quarter. Investment was particularly weak, dragged down by a sharp... 25th April 2025 · 8 mins read
Asia Rapid Response Korea GDP (Q1 adv, 2025) Korea’s economy weakened further in Q1 and we expect activity to remain weak in the near term due to headwinds from tariffs and the bleak outlook for the construction sector. 24th April 2025 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Tariff exemption boost, Singapore goes to the polls The recent US decision to exempt a range of electronics—including smartphones, semiconductors, and TVs—from tariffs offers temporary relief to Asian exporters, particularly Taiwan, where over 60% of... 17th April 2025 · 8 mins read
Asia Economics Update Korea: not the end of the easing cycle The Bank of Korea today left interest rates unchanged, but the dovish commentary from the press conference and the statement suggest further cuts are coming. We are sticking with our view that rates... 17th April 2025 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Asia Weekly: Relief in Asia Trump’s 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs offers welcome breathing room for Asia (outside China), and the region should avoid the worst of the fallout of the trade war. While the 10% universal tariff... 11th April 2025 · 9 mins read
Asia Economics Update Korea: Easing political crisis won’t be a gamechanger Korea’s Constitutional Court upheld President Yoon’s impeachment today which should ease concerns around Korea’s democratic institutions and institutional frameworks. With fresh presidential elections... 4th April 2025 · 4 mins read
Asia Economics Update First thoughts on the impact of US tariffs on Asia Asian economies will be hit harder than most by US reciprocal tariffs. We were already expecting more rate cuts than the consensus in most countries in the region, but there’s now a risk that central... 3rd April 2025 · 3 mins read
Commodities Update The makings of a global LNG glut With demand for LNG unlikely to keep pace with the looming surge in supply over the coming years, a glut of natural gas will weigh heavily on benchmark prices in Asia and Europe. Our forecasts for... 2nd April 2025 · 5 mins read
Asia Economics Update Asia March PMIs, Korea Trade The March PMIs for Asia were generally subdued, supporting our view that GDP growth in the region is set to remain below trend in the near term. And with inflation back to target in most economies, we... 1st April 2025 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Asia Weekly: Tariffs centre stage as rupiah wobbles Donald Trump’s plan to impose a 25% tariff on all automotive imports from April 3rd could have significant consequences for parts of Asia, particularly Korea and Japan, where auto exports account for... 28th March 2025 · 6 mins read
Asia Economics Update Korea’s poor demographics are not destiny just yet While Korea’s productivity growth has slowed, this has been offset by faster employment growth as more women and elderly have entered the labour market. If that trend continues and productivity growth... 24th March 2025 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Korea: dovish central bank as political turmoil continues The Bank of Korea’s latest minutes highlight growing concern over the economy. Given the deteriorating outlook, we expect the BoK to cut rates by a further 75bps this year, a more dovish stance than... 21st March 2025 · 5 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Duterte in the dock, Korea’s welcome workforce shift The arrest of former President Rodrigo Duterte by the ICC will not have any direct economic consequences, but it shines a light on the deepening political instability in the Philippines, particularly... 14th March 2025 · 6 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Jump in Korea’s fertility rate, Indonesia’s new sovereign wealth fund Figures published earlier this week showed the fertility rate in Korea increased last year for the first time in nine years. However, we think this was mainly due to a post-COVID rebound in marriages... 28th February 2025 · 6 mins read
