Stephen Brown

Stephen Brown joined Capital Economics in 2014 and has worked in both our London and Toronto offices. He is Deputy Chief North America Economist, with a specialisation in the Canadian economy. In 2021, Stephen was named the most accurate forecaster of the Canadian economy by Refinitiv, FocusEconomics and Consensus Economics. Stephen holds a degree in Economics from the University of Bath and an MSc in Economic History from the London School of Economics.

Canada Economics Update

Housing Watch (Sep.)

House price inflation turned positive in August, but the smaller monthly price gain combined with signs of easing demand and increasing supply show that the housing market continues to cool.

18th September 2023 4 mins read

Canada Economics Weekly

No sign of immigration slowdown as opinion shifts

A recent poll suggests that Canadians are growing sceptical of the government’s high immigration targets. Whether policy shifts or not, it is inevitable that net immigration will eventually slow from...

15th September 2023 5 mins read

Canada Economics Update

Plunging food inflation to offset higher oil prices

CPI food inflation has remained elevated in recent months but, with wholesale price growth easing rapidly, we are confident it will soon fall sharply. That will help to offset the impact of higher oil...

14th September 2023 5 mins read

Event

Drop-In: AI, Economies and Markets – How artificial intelligence will transform the global economy

5th October 2023, 9:00AM BST

Often-breathless debate around AI can leave investors bewildered as to what this emerging technology will actually mean for the global economy and markets. It’s a debate which has lacked a consistent…

US Economics Update

How concerning is the weakness in GDI?

The recent weakness of Gross Domestic Income (GDI) is only partly because it includes the losses now being incurred by the Federal Reserve. Even after excluding those, GDI paints a much weaker picture...

11th September 2023 4 mins read

Canada Economics Weekly

Macklem more confident that Bank will meet its target

In his speech this week, Governor Tiff Macklem sounded much more confident that the Bank will be able to meet its 2% inflation target. The latest labour market and local housing data suggest that may...

8th September 2023 5 mins read

Canada Rapid Response

Canada Labour Force Survey (Aug.)

The rebound in employment and larger increase in hours worked in August suggest the economy bounced back following some of the temporary disruptions in June and July, thereby reducing the chance of a...

8th September 2023 2 mins read

Canada Economics Update

Bank of Canada’s next move likely to be a rate cut

The Bank of Canada accompanied its decision to leave interest rates unchanged with a pledge to hike again if needed, but we doubt it will need to follow through. With recession risks rising and labour...

6th September 2023 2 mins read

Canada Rapid Response

Bank of Canada Policy Announcement (Sep.)

6th September 2023 2 mins read

Canada Rapid Response

Canada International Trade (Jul.)

6th September 2023 2 mins read

Why isn’t Canada an economic giant?

“Two of the economy’s previous main drivers of economic growth — natural resources and manufacturing — have struggled to expand in recent years, due to a combination of a more onerous regulatory...

3rd September 2023 Financial Times

Canada Economics Weekly

Bank to pause amid rising recession risks

The surprise second-quarter contraction in GDP was partly due to the wildfires but, even without that damage, growth would have been very weak. With the August CFIB Business Barometer showing further...

1st September 2023 6 mins read

Canada Rapid Response

Canada GDP (Q2)

The surprise contraction in second-quarter GDP leaves little doubt that the Bank of Canada will keep interest rates unchanged next week. With the fall in monthly GDP in June and the apparent...

1st September 2023 3 mins read

Canada’s economy unexpectedly contracts in second quarter, setting up next week’s BoC rate decision

“With the fall in monthly GDP in June and the apparent stagnation in July setting a weak foundation for the third quarter, the Canadian economy may already have fallen into a modest recession,”...

1st September 2023 The Globe and Mail

Bank of Canada Watch

No need for Bank to hike again

Inflation has surprised to the upside of the Bank of Canada’s forecasts but, given signs of slower GDP growth and looser labour market conditions, the Bank should be happy keeping interest rates on...

30th August 2023 6 mins read

US Economics Update

SAVE to soften blow as student loan payments resume

The SAVE student loan plan eases the burden on low-income households and should reduce the economic impact as repayments resume in October. Nonetheless, with the hit to disposable incomes just one of...

29th August 2023 3 mins read