Earlier this week we published our US Outlook. We expect the incoming Trump administration’s policies to have a mildly stagflationary impact on the economy. Assuming that Trump introduces tariffs and immigration curbs via executive action by the middle of next year, we would expect GDP growth to run close to 1.5% at an annualised pace over the following 12 months, with inflation temporarily rebounding to around 3%. There are several key risks that could significantly alter our forecasts.
Note: This will be the last US Economics Weekly of 2024. The next Weekly will be sent on Friday 10th January 2025.
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