US Economics Weekly US Weekly: Reconciliation bill inches away from finish line Although the cost of the final reconciliation bill looks set to be much larger than the House originally planned, it will not result in any meaningful stimulus for the economy. President Trump will... 3rd July 2025 · 5 mins read
US Economics Weekly US Weekly: Trump fast-tracks search for Powell successor Fed Chair Jerome Powell struck a careful balance in his semi-annual testimony to Congress this week, offering no signal that a July cut is likely, while keeping the door open to reductions later in... 27th June 2025 · 7 mins read
US Economics Weekly US Weekly: Fed biding its time This week Fed Chair Jerome Powell didn’t sound overly reassured by the lack of an immediate impact of tariffs in consumer prices in May, warning that “it takes some time for tariffs to work their way... 20th June 2025 · 6 mins read
US Economics Weekly US Weekly: Tariff impact remains uncertain The impacts of tariffs were notably limited in May's CPI and PPI data. However, these impacts may be just around the corner, with firms running down inventory and the potential for a rebound in US... 13th June 2025 · 7 mins read
US Economics Weekly US Weekly: Tax cuts, trade and a truce The latest CBO projections suggest that tariff revenues will almost exactly offset the cost of the budget reconciliation over the next decade. Otherwise, although the recent talks between Presidents... 6th June 2025 · 5 mins read
US Economics Weekly US Weekly: Court rulings leave trade policy in disarray Although this week’s court ruling – that President Trump doesn’t have the “unbounded authority” to impose universal tariffs on other countries – has been temporarily stayed, there is a fair chance... 30th May 2025 · 7 mins read
US Economics Weekly US Weekly: Fiscal package moves to the Senate The "One Big Beautiful Bill" passed by the House has raised some concerns about the fiscal outlook. However, we expect the rise in tariff revenue to almost exactly offset the House bill's extra costs... 23rd May 2025 · 7 mins read
US Economics Weekly US Weekly: Was Trump right about tariffs? The lack of any obvious tariff effect in either the price or activity data for April raises an interesting question – is it just taking longer for it to show up or was President Trump right after all... 16th May 2025 · 4 mins read
US Economics Weekly US Weekly: Fed on hold as China trade talks begin The “full and comprehensive” trade deal between the US and the UK announced this week by President Donald Trump was none of those things. This rush to demonstrate progress on “deals” reveals a rising... 9th May 2025 · 9 mins read
US Economics Weekly US Weekly: Growth stronger than reported but weaker than believed The outsized surge in imports last quarter makes the negative Q1 GDP reading an inordinately poor reflection of the economy's strength. However, stripping out an artificially large jump in IT... 2nd May 2025 · 5 mins read
US Economics Weekly US Weekly: Reality bites for Trump on tariffs and the Fed The negative reaction in financial markets undoubtedly played a key role in making President Trump reconsider his eye-wateringly high tariffs on China and his ill-advised plans to fire Fed Chair... 25th April 2025 · 8 mins read
US Economics Weekly US Weekly: The American consumer rises again The positive retail sales data for March released this week means we now believe that real consumption grew by 1.0% annualised in the first quarter, pushing our Q1 GDP forecast back into positive... 17th April 2025 · 5 mins read
US Economics Weekly US Weekly: Trump folds first hand, doubles down on second As we suggested in our Update from last weekend, it was only a matter of time before the increasingly adverse market reaction forced President Donald Trump to reconsider his plan to levy prohibitive... 11th April 2025 · 7 mins read
US Economics Weekly US Weekly: Republicans need to get with the recycling program President Donald Trump’s big “Liberation Day” announcement went down badly in the markets, as fears mounted that the bigger-than-expected reciprocal tariffs would trigger a recession. The surge in... 4th April 2025 · 8 mins read
US Economics Weekly US Weekly: Trump shifts tariffs up a gear The Trump administration’s 25% tariffs on most motor vehicle and some parts imports is an upside risk to our inflation forecasts. There have been some hints from the administration that the levies... 28th March 2025 · 8 mins read
US Economics Weekly US Weekly: Fed operating in the dark The Fed is struggling to provide forward guidance without clear policy direction from the new administration. Even though rate-setters expect core PCE inflation to end the year at close to 3%, the... 21st March 2025 · 6 mins read
