US Economics Weekly CIT ruling only a minor setback for the administration The federal court ruling this week that the administration unlawfully imposed the 10% global tariff under Section 122 of the Trade Expansion Act of 1974 is only a minor setback for Trump’s tariff... 8th May 2026 · 7 mins read
US Economics Weekly Unpacking a landmark week at the Fed A landmark week in the history of the Federal Reserve concludes with interest rate expectations little changed. 1st May 2026 · 7 mins read
US Economics Weekly Refunds, refunds everywhere but not a major stimulus Individuals have benefited from higher tax refunds this year and companies will soon benefit from IEEPA tariff refunds, but we doubt that these will make a big difference to GDP growth. 24th April 2026 · 9 mins read
US Economics Weekly Manufacturing yet to find its stride The manufacturing sector continues to struggle, with production down in March and little changed over the past year. However, tentative signs that foreign producers are investing to expand their US... 17th April 2026 · 5 mins read
US Economics Weekly Households lack cushion against gasoline price shock The sharp fall in the saving rate to 4.0% in February predates the Iran war and may signal what lies ahead as households absorb much higher fuel bills. This limited cushion suggests households will... 10th April 2026 · 5 mins read
US Economics Weekly Iran war hits home at gasoline price surpasses $4 The consequences of the Iran war became even more conspicuous for consumers this week, with the national average gasoline price rising above $4 a gallon for the first time since 2022. Thankfully, the... 2nd April 2026 · 8 mins read
US Economics Weekly Manufacturing dragging down non-residential construction We do not expect the war in Iran to dent the data centre buildout but, with manufacturing construction investment falling sharply, we may still be overestimating the outlook for non-residential... 27th March 2026 · 8 mins read
US Economics Weekly Goods inflation a thorn in the Fed’s side The sharp repricing in futures markets toward discounting the chance of a Fed hike this year looks somewhat overdone, especially given the Fed’s commentary following this week’s rate decision. While... 20th March 2026 · 4 mins read
US Economics Weekly Fed unlikely to overreact to inflation resurgence We don't expect the Fed to overreact to the resurgence in its preferred PCE inflation measure given it partly reflects the outsized weighting of particular items and there is still plenty of... 13th March 2026 · 5 mins read
US Economics Weekly Energy price shock and disappointing jobs report The surge in oil prices will be a negative for the economy, with domestic oil producers unlikely to raise production until it is clear that Middle East disruptions, and the resulting elevated prices... 6th March 2026 · 9 mins read
US Economics Weekly Tariff uncertainty continues The initial response to last Friday’s Supreme Court ruling that its IEEPA-related tariffs were illegal suggested that the Trump administration had been carefully planning for that outcome. Within 24... 27th February 2026 · 7 mins read
US Economics Weekly IEEPA ruling unlikely to pull PCE inflation back to 2% The price data this week made for grim reading for the Fed, implying that core PCE inflation rose above 3% last month. The Supreme Court's tariff ruling could help to bring down goods prices in the... 20th February 2026 · 4 mins read
US Economics Weekly Improving jobs market weakens case for more Fed cuts January's employment report was about as good as could have been hoped for, with a 172,000 rise in private payrolls comfortably beating expectations and the unemployment rate dropping further to 4.3%... 13th February 2026 · 10 mins read
US Economics Weekly Jobs market health still in question ahead of Jan payrolls This week's slew of soft labour market data releases – including a further slump in job openings, higher weekly jobless claims, and a rebound in Challenger job cut announcements – has resurfaced... 6th February 2026 · 7 mins read
US Economics Weekly Warsh faces an uphill battle at the Fed There was “broad support” among the FOMC to leave the fed funds target range unchanged at between 3.50% and 3.75% at this week’s meeting. Non-voting participants, according to Chair Jerome Powell... 30th January 2026 · 6 mins read
US Economics Weekly Next Fed chair to inherit a roaring economy We’ll be waiting at least another month now for the Supreme Court ruling on the legality of President Trump’s IEEPA-related tariffs. That means we’re on Fed Chair watch next week, to see if Trump... 23rd January 2026 · 6 mins read
