US Economics Weekly AI trade is driving interest rate expectations Despite this week’s largely as-expected Fed October policy meeting and data showing strong GDP growth and persistent inflationary pressures, investors have pared back interest rate expectations as the... 30th October 2026 · 5 mins read
US Economics Weekly Fall in yields won’t necessarily reduce the debt burden While this week's fall in bond yields will be a welcome development for the Treasury, it doesn't mean that fiscal risks have diminished. Yields are still higher than they were just a few months ago... 23rd October 2026 · 6 mins read
US Economics Weekly Inflation risks show little sign of abating The September CPI and PPI data delivered a decidedly “discouraging” message for the Fed, to use Chicago Fed President Austin Goolsbee’s words, with core inflation on both measures surprising to the... 16th October 2026 · 4 mins read
US Economics Weekly Inflation risks keep more Fed hikes in play The latest data and Fedspeak suggest there is upside risk to our forecast that the Fed will hike interest rates twice more, by a total 50 bp, in the coming six months. 9th October 2026 · 6 mins read
US Economics Weekly Fed can afford to be patient Both this week’s economic data and Fed commentary skewed dovish on balance, pushing back against the idea that the Fed will move again in October. 2nd October 2026 · 4 mins read
US Economics Weekly The Fed is unlikely to go as far as markets expect While the commentary from Fed officials this week suggests there is broad agreement on the FOMC that it has more near-term work to do, we are not convinced that the committee will tighten policy by as... 25th September 2026 · 6 mins read
US Economics Weekly What to make of the Fed’s hawkish tilt While we expect the Fed to hike interest rates by more than the latest Summary of Economic Projections imply in the near term, we also think a slowdown in growth in 2028 will force the Fed to... 18th September 2026 · 4 mins read
US Economics Weekly Softening in core goods inflation unlikely to last While core goods inflation continued to ease in August, three key developments this week lend support to our view that this is unlikely to last. 11th September 2026 · 6 mins read
US Economics Weekly Is the Fed destined to be behind the curve? The economic indicators this week suggest that the economy and labour market are humming along while firms are increasingly concerned about inflation risks. Nonetheless, the communications from Fed... 4th September 2026 · 5 mins read
US Economics Weekly Warsh strikes a hawkish tone at Jackson Hole Kevin Warsh was uncharacteristically loose-lipped in his keynote address at the 2026 Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium , unequivocally indicating that he would be prepared to tighten policy if... 28th August 2026 · 6 mins read
US Economics Weekly Bessent twists, will Warsh stick? Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s efforts to keep down the long-end of the yield curve may not have been quite as effective as he hoped, although they do provide a clear signalling mechanism. Bessent... 21st August 2026 · 6 mins read
US Economics Weekly Fed’s next move a hike, but not in September The tameness of the price data for July means we are dropping our call for the Fed to raise interest rates in September. Nonetheless, we are not convinced that the conditions are in place for core... 14th August 2026 · 6 mins read
US Economics Weekly Softer wage growth will comfort the Fed We would not read too much into the fall in payrolls in July, but the lack of wage pressures clearly reduces the need for the Fed to raise rates soon unless the price data next week deliver a big... 7th August 2026 · 6 mins read
US Economics Weekly Economy continues to show solid momentum Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh’s muddled July FOMC press conference and the resulting gyrations in financial markets dominated this week’s headlines, diverting attention from data suggesting that... 31st July 2026 · 6 mins read
US Economics Weekly Tariff wall rebuild underway The new forced labour Section 301 tariffs that took effect today are only part of the administration’s broader strategy to push the average tariff rate back towards its pre-IEEPA-ruling level of... 24th July 2026 · 6 mins read
US Economics Weekly A month of soft inflation won’t assuage Fed’s concerns The softer-than-expected June CPI and PPI prints don't change the fact that price pressures remain elevated. Accordingly, we're sticking with our view that the Fed will hike interest rates as soon as... 17th July 2026 · 4 mins read
