US Economics Weekly Trump tariffs on thin ice The Supreme Court justices appeared sceptical this week that President Donald Trump’s use of emergency powers to impose sweeping reciprocal tariffs was legal. If the Court rules against Trump invoking... 7th November 2025 · 4 mins read
US Economics Weekly December rate cut still the most likely outcome The Fed delivered a hawkish rate cut this week, with Chair Jerome Powell pushing back against market expectations for another at the next FOMC meeting. Nevertheless, we would argue that it makes more... 31st October 2025 · 7 mins read
US Economics Weekly Record shutdown would still have little impact The Federal government shutdown is headed into a fourth week. With the Senate still holding periodic votes that are doomed to fail – as lawmakers remain firmly split along party lines – and with the... 24th October 2025 · 4 mins read
US Economics Weekly Fed on autopilot through shutdown fog Comments from Chair Powell and various other FOMC participants confirm the federal funds rate will be lowered again later this month in spite of the recent rebound in surveyed hiring intentions. We... 17th October 2025 · 5 mins read
US Economics Weekly Little consumption upside from home refinancing uptick The extent to which the recent drop in mortgage rates and flurry of home refinancing can boost consumption is limited, as most homeowners still hold pandemic-era sub-4% loans. While there is some... 10th October 2025 · 7 mins read
US Economics Weekly Shutdown puts emphasis on alternative data The ongoing government shutdown is delaying release of official data for September and disrupting collection for October, leaving us to take steer on the economy from alternative measures for the time... 3rd October 2025 · 6 mins read
US Economics Weekly Funding stalemate on Capitol Hill The clock is ticking for Congress to extend the Federal government’s spending authority, which will expire when the next fiscal year begins at 12:01am on October 1st (next Wednesday), triggering a... 26th September 2025 · 6 mins read
US Economics Weekly Fed returns to Greenspan's risk management doctrine For long-time Fed watchers, Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference this week was a return to the glory days of Alan Greenspan during the 1990s and 2000s, when “the Maestro” first adopted a risk... 19th September 2025 · 6 mins read
US Economics Weekly Fed has the green light to cut The August CPI was the last hurdle to the Fed lowering interest rates next week, and without any marked pickup in inflation, a cut looks certain. Despite calls from Trump loyalists for a 50bp move, we... 12th September 2025 · 7 mins read
US Economics Weekly The judiciary strikes back The conventional wisdom is that President Trump has pushed well beyond the established bounds on executive power in his second term. In a number of areas, including tariffs, deportations, the use of... 5th September 2025 · 6 mins read
US Economics Weekly Trump cooking up a storm at the Fed This week the CBO published updated projections showing that tariffs are now expected to raise $3.3 trillion over the next ten years, which would almost exactly offset the impact of the budget... 29th August 2025 · 7 mins read
US Economics Weekly US Weekly: Labour demand could be even weaker In the wake of the disappointing July payrolls release, which revealed an unexpected near-stagnation in employment over the summer, Fed Chair Jerome Powell acknowledged in his Jackson Hole speech that... 22nd August 2025 · 6 mins read
US Economics Weekly US Weekly: Fed inching closer to rate cuts Ahead of the Fed’s annual Jackson Hole Symposium, which kicks off late next week, markets are still wholly convinced that the Fed will cut rates by 25bp at the upcoming FOMC meeting in September and... 15th August 2025 · 6 mins read
US Economics Weekly US Weekly: Exports resilient despite trade war The trade deficit narrowed to $60.2bn in June, from $71.5bn. This was the smallest deficit in almost two years, with a normalisation in pharmaceutical goods imports causing total imports to decline by... 8th August 2025 · 7 mins read
US Economics Weekly US Weekly: Payrolls move the narrative back in the doves’ favour The downside surprise to payrolls in July and significant downward revisions to May and June have left markets convinced that the Fed will cut in September, which is looking more likely but isn’t a... 1st August 2025 · 5 mins read
US Economics Weekly US Weekly: New trade deals shed light on final tariff landscape With the EU reportedly close to striking a trade deal similar to the one officials agreed with Japan this week, the final tariff landscape is becoming clearer. Both appear to have settled on a 15%... 25th July 2025 · 9 mins read
