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Q4 2022 US Economic Outlook

Recession will add to disinflationary pressure 

Our Q4 US Economic Outlook explains why we think inflation will fall faster than the Fed expects, clearing the way for rate cuts by the end of next year. 

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The latest edition of this quarterly report provides comprehensive analysis of the US economy for this year and beyond, assessing the key issues that will shape macro and market outcomes, including:

  • How inflation will fall faster than the Fed expects, albeit because of a mild recession in early 2023;
  • Why residential investment will bear the brunt of the recession, while consumption and business investment will be relatively cushioned;
  • How falling inflation will create the conditions for the Fed to start cutting rates by the end of next year.

Download a complimentary copy of this report now to understand what a changing inflation picture will mean for Fed strategy.

...a more marked decline in underlying inflation will lead to rate cuts from late 2023.
Paul Ashworth New
Paul Ashworth
Chief North America Economist

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Report authors

  • Paul Ashworth New

    Paul Ashworth

    Chief North America Economist

    Paul Ashworth is our Chief North America Economist, with overall responsibility for our coverage of the US and Canada.

  • Andrew Hunter

    Andrew Hunter

    Senior US Economist

    Andrew Hunter is a Senior US Economist who joined the Capital Economics graduate training scheme in 2014.

  • Michael Pearce

    Michael Pearce

    Senior US Economist

    Michael Pearce is a Senior US Economist based in New York. He originally joined the company in London as part of the graduate training scheme and spent several years working on our Global Economics service.

Washington DC

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Our US Economics coverage provides detailed analysis and independent forecasts for the US economy and financial markets, offering both rapid responses to new data and developments, and more in-depth coverage of key themes, current trends, and future developments.

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