The latest edition of this quarterly report captures the US economy at a key moment in its economic and policy cycle, providing analysis for this year and beyond and assessing the key issues that will shape macro and market outcomes, including:
- Why we still think a mild recession is on the cards;
- The factors that will see core inflation cool at a faster pace;
- Why, when the Fed does move to cut rates, it will do so at a faster pace than markets expect.
Download a complimentary copy of this report now to understand what recession and a changing inflation picture will mean for Fed policy.
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Signs that the real economy is still headed for recession and more progress on bringing core inflation back toward the 2% target should eventually persuade the Fed to begin cutting rates again in the first half of next year.
Report authors
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Paul Ashworth
Chief North America Economist
Paul Ashworth is our Chief North America Economist, with overall responsibility for our coverage of the US and Canada.
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Andrew Hunter
Senior US Economist
Andrew Hunter is a Senior US Economist who joined the Capital Economics graduate training scheme in 2014.
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