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US economy

Q2 2024 US Economic Outlook

Inflation to fall further as GDP growth slows

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The latest edition of this quarterly report captures the US economy at a key moment in its economic and policy cycle, providing analysis for 2024 and beyond that assesses the key issues shaping macro and market outcomes, including:

  • What the outcome of this November's election could mean for economic growth and for policy; 
  • Why we think the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates this year by more than markets and the Fed currently anticipate;  
  • Why a near-term recession can't be entirely ruled out, but also how the productivity improvements from AI will soon show.

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Although we expect GDP growth to slow to a below-potential pace over the next few quarters, we then anticipate a pick-up late this year, as monetary policy flips from a headwind to a tailwind.
Paul Ashworth New
Paul Ashworth
Chief North America Economist
Washington DC

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Our US Economics coverage provides detailed analysis and independent forecasts for the US economy and financial markets, offering both rapid responses to new data and developments, and more in-depth coverage of key themes, current trends, and future developments.

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