Key questions on the closure of the East-West pipeline

The attack on Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline could impact up to 4% of global oil supply and each week of the pipeline’s closure could knock up to 0.3%-pts off Saudi Arabia’s GDP. Uncertainty about the length of the closure means that we’re not changing our base case that Brent crude will end the year at $100pb. But the risks to that forecast lie firmly to the upside, especially in light of Houthi advances and the greater risk of additional attacks on physical energy infrastructure in the region.