Global Economics Update What are the potential implications of Houthi attacks? Given reports of Houthi threats to close the Bab el-Mandeb passage to the Red Sea and to attack Saudi oil infrastructure, we are publishing an updated version of this note originally sent on 31st... 16th July 2026 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update The implications of a renewed closure of the Strait The global economy has so far weathered the energy shock created by the war in Iran, but a sharp drawdown in oil inventories has left stocks close to critically low levels. The oil market therefore... 16th July 2026 · 5 mins read
Commodities Update Oil market investors stuck in limbo again The escalation of the US-Iran war over the last week has caused investors to rapidly adjust their views of the upside risks in the oil market. If conditions continue to deteriorate, the lesson from... 14th July 2026 · 3 mins read
Commodities Update Five key questions on the “Battle of Hormuz” The announcement of a new US naval blockade on Iranian oil – and the suggestion that the US will charge a toll on shipping through the Strait – has upended the MoU and poses risks to our view that... 14th July 2026 · 4 mins read
Commodities Update US-Iran strikes are a reminder of upside risks to prices The latest exchange of military strikes in the Middle East supports our view that oil prices will be volatile over the coming months, and will face bouts of upward pressure. That said, under the... 8th July 2026 · 4 mins read
Commodities Update Gold prices still haven’t found a bottom Whereas the consensus view is that gold prices will rebound after falling to $4,000 per ounce, we are sticking to our long-held forecast for prices to fall further over the next 18 months. 25th June 2026 · 3 mins read
Commodities Update There are no quick fixes for bypassing the Strait Reports that the UAE could have another oil pipeline up and running in 2027 have bolstered hopes of a rapid redrawing of the energy map in the Middle East which would negate Iran’s stranglehold over... 18th June 2026 · 4 mins read
Commodities Update Five factors to watch as the Strait of Hormuz reopens There is a lot of uncertainty about how the energy market and prices will evolve once an agreement is officially signed between the US and Iran. This Update highlights five key factors to watch in... 15th June 2026 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update What the peace deal means for the Gulf? The deal agreed over the weekend to end the war between the US and Iran will, if it holds, support a gradual recovery in the Gulf economies over the coming quarters. But the hit to output that has... 15th June 2026 · 4 mins read
Commodities Update A pulse check on the oil market The combination of a plunge in China’s imports and an increase in the US’s exports have helped to absorb the loss of Middle Eastern supply in the oil market. But fundamentally demand is still well... 10th June 2026 · 4 mins read
Commodities Update Five key questions on the oil market’s “tipping point” Amidst frequent talk of an impending “tipping point” in the global oil market, this Update answers five key questions on the topic, including the implications for prices. In short, if the pace of... 9th June 2026 · 4 mins read
Commodities Update China could delay the tipping point for oil prices The mismatch between oil supplied and consumed in China suggests that inventories are being drawn down there, which has eased the upward pressure on global oil prices. Against the backdrop of the US... 29th May 2026 · 4 mins read
Commodities Rapid Response The end of the beginning of the energy crisis? 28th May 2026 · 2 mins read
Commodities Update Oil market traders caught in limbo Oil market options data suggest that investors expect oil prices to ease lower over the next three months, but given uncertainty around the Strait of Hormuz they have unusually low conviction. 26th May 2026 · 3 mins read
Commodities Update The road back to energy normality is getting longer The longer the disruption to energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz continues, the more complex any eventual pick-up in energy flows will be. Oil prices could clearly fall back sharply as/if/when... 21st May 2026 · 4 mins read
Asia Economics Update Prabowo tightens grip on Indonesia’s commodity exports The creation of a state-owned export monopoly may help Indonesia’s government capture a greater share of commodity revenues, but it risks deterring investment, undermining confidence in policymaking... 21st May 2026 · 3 mins read
