Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Deal to end the war edging closer? Hopes for an end to the Iran war have grown (again) in recent days. But there are lots of points of contention that will arise during the 30-day negotiation period and divisions within the Iranian... 7th May 2026 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly OPEC minus, US blockade The surprise announcement that the UAE will be leaving OPEC+ points to a world in which global oil supplies are likely to be higher and prices lower over the medium term (and once the Strait of Hormuz... 30th April 2026 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Stalemate, swap lines and slumps Prospects for a swift end to the Iran war were dented this week as divisions within the Iranian regime hinder Tehran’s efforts to put forward a coherent, unified position in negotiations. And as a... 23rd April 2026 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Ceasefire holding, negotiations ongoing The ceasefire between the US/Israel and Iran has largely held over the past week and there are growing hopes that it will be extended as talks continue to end the war. It’s unclear if, and how, the US... 16th April 2026 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly The beginning of the end of war? The US-Iran ceasefire announced yesterday looks very fragile and there are major hurdles for both sides to overcome in upcoming talks to reach a lasting end to the war. If the war does end, that would... 9th April 2026 · 8 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly De-escalation short-lived; Egypt committed to orthodoxy Hopes of a de-escalation between the US and Iran had been building earlier this week but were quashed by President Trump's address to the nation on Wednesday night. He said that the US would “hit them... 2nd April 2026 · 8 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Moving towards de-escalation?, Egypt‘s fuel-saving steps The Iran war seemed to be at a tipping point this time last week and recent developments provide, in the words of China’s foreign minister, “a glimmer of hope” that things are moving towards de... 26th March 2026 · 8 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Conflict at a tipping point? The conflict in the Middle East has escalated further over the past week, with damage to energy infrastructure in the region now the key concern. Comments from QatarEnergy’s CEO that LNG export... 19th March 2026 · 8 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Conflict will exert a heavy toll on the Gulf There remains enormous uncertainty over how the conflict in the Middle East will play out from here. But the scenarios we have laid out suggest the Gulf economies will almost certainly record negative... 12th March 2026 · 7 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Middle East conflict: the state of play The conflict in the Middle East that began this week could have profound geopolitical and macroeconomic implications for the region. Energy supply from the Gulf has been severely disrupted, and non... 5th March 2026 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly US-Iran, OPEC+, Egypt tax plans, Kuwait’s Article IV The US and Iran resumed talks in Geneva today, but the build-up of US forces in the region means that the threat of strikes remains on the table. The associated risk to oil supply may lie behind... 26th February 2026 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly US-Iran, Kuwait’s budget, Saudi inflation, AI in the Gulf Unless Iran makes major concessions to reach a new nuclear deal with the US, the threat of US military intervention will rise - particularly given the build-up of forces in the region. Elsewhere... 19th February 2026 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Egypt cabinet reshuffle, Saudi Vision 2030 This week’s cabinet reshuffle in Egypt has largely kept the status quo as the government seeks to affirm to the IMF and foreign investors its commitment to macro orthodoxy, whilst changes alongside... 12th February 2026 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly US-Iran talks, Qatar’s LNG push, Saudi opens up The US and Iran enter negotiations tomorrow, but relations between the two are fragile and there's a high risk that talks break down, which could result in fresh US military strikes on Iran. Elsewhere... 5th February 2026 · 7 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly The dollar and MENA, US-Iran tensions, Saudi project delays This year's dollar rout has taken Gulf currencies down too, but the impact on inflation is likely to be small - and inflation is very low in any case. Elsewhere, Egypt stands to be a beneficiary from... 29th January 2026 · 7 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Egypt’s external gains, Saudi real estate, Saudi-UAE tensions Data released this week showed that Egypt's current account deficit has continued to improve nearly two years on from the policy shift. The growing likelihood of a rebound in Suez Canal traffic will... 22nd January 2026 · 6 mins read
