Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

Conflict will exert a heavy toll on the Gulf

There remains enormous uncertainty over how the conflict in the Middle East will play out from here. But the scenarios we have laid out suggest the Gulf economies will almost certainly record negative...

12th March 2026 · 7 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

Middle East conflict: the state of play

The conflict in the Middle East that began this week could have profound geopolitical and macroeconomic implications for the region. Energy supply from the Gulf has been severely disrupted, and non...

5th March 2026 · 6 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

US-Iran, OPEC+, Egypt tax plans, Kuwait’s Article IV

The US and Iran resumed talks in Geneva today, but the build-up of US forces in the region means that the threat of strikes remains on the table. The associated risk to oil supply may lie behind...

26th February 2026 · 5 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

US-Iran, Kuwait’s budget, Saudi inflation, AI in the Gulf

Unless Iran makes major concessions to reach a new nuclear deal with the US, the threat of US military intervention will rise - particularly given the build-up of forces in the region. Elsewhere...

19th February 2026 · 6 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

Egypt cabinet reshuffle, Saudi Vision 2030

This week’s cabinet reshuffle in Egypt has largely kept the status quo as the government seeks to affirm to the IMF and foreign investors its commitment to macro orthodoxy, whilst changes alongside...

12th February 2026 · 6 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

US-Iran talks, Qatar’s LNG push, Saudi opens up

The US and Iran enter negotiations tomorrow, but relations between the two are fragile and there's a high risk that talks break down, which could result in fresh US military strikes on Iran. Elsewhere...

5th February 2026 · 7 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

The dollar and MENA, US-Iran tensions, Saudi project delays

This year's dollar rout has taken Gulf currencies down too, but the impact on inflation is likely to be small - and inflation is very low in any case. Elsewhere, Egypt stands to be a beneficiary from...

29th January 2026 · 7 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

Egypt’s external gains, Saudi real estate, Saudi-UAE tensions

Data released this week showed that Egypt's current account deficit has continued to improve nearly two years on from the policy shift. The growing likelihood of a rebound in Suez Canal traffic will...

22nd January 2026 · 6 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

The latest on the protests in Iran

The US appears to have backed away from military intervention to support protestors in Iran, helping oil prices to fall today. But the situation remains extremely fragile. Any near-term disruption to...

15th January 2026 · 6 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

Saudi borrowing plan, Bahrain’s austerity steps, KSA opens up

Saudi Arabia kicked off 2026 with its first debt issuance of the year. Like last year, we think borrowing will exceed the authorities' plans as lower oil prices lead to a wider budget deficit and...

8th January 2026 · 7 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

Oil prices, Morocco inflation-targeting, Saudi inflation

Brent crude dropped to its lowest level since early 2021 this week, and we think that this trend will persist in 2026. This is not a major concern for the Gulf economies' balance sheets, but it...

18th December 2025 · 8 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

Does Egypt need the IMF anyway? Oman gets an upgrade

Egypt’s IMF review has coincided with a fresh impetus to jumpstart the lagging privatisation programme. But compared to just a couple of years ago, Egypt’s improving balance of payments position and...

11th December 2025 · 7 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

Egypt’s bumper PMI, Saudi Budget, MENA 2026 Outlook

November’s batch of PMIs suggest that growth strengthened in the region last month, particularly in Egypt where the survey hit its highest level (outside the post-pandemic recovery) since 2015...

4th December 2025 · 7 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

Dubai real estate, Bahrain-Oman public finances, Egypt rates

The surge in prices in Dubai’s real estate sector appears to be prompting developers to take on debt to finance new projects. This echoes events prior to the crisis in 2009, but a re-run seems...

27th November 2025 · 6 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

MbS’s Washington trip tips the balance in US’s favour

Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman's visit to the US this week secured security, nuclear, mineral, and AI deals which will pull the Kingdom back from China’s sphere of influence towards the US.

20th November 2025 · 6 mins read