Strong growth will temper Banxico’s dovish stance The 0.9% q/q rise in Mexico’s GDP in Q3 confirms that the economy has maintained good momentum and we think that the tone of Banxico’s communications at next week’s meeting will be much less dovish than …
30th October 2026
UK Chancellor John Healey delivered his first Budget this week, giving some relief to households worried about their energy bills and managing to maintain credibility will the markets. But there are questions about whether implied spending cuts can be …
Israel’s political uncertainty set to linger Israel’s election delivered no clear winner this week, although Netanyahu’s Likud party performed better than had been expected and Arab parties emerged as potential kingmakers, on track to secure 19 of 120 …
Korea and Taiwan both recorded strong export-led growth in the third quarter, but the difference in their performance was striking. Korea’s economy grew by 3.4% y/y, a decent rate by historic standards and above our estimate of trend growth. But this was …
Economy continues to brush off energy shock The continued growth of the euro-zone economy in Q3 shows that households and businesses have not pared back their spending due to the Iran war. We think the economy will continue to grow steadily in the coming …
Digital economy is booming Jio Platforms’ long-awaited IPO this week was India’s largest ever, raising US$3.2bn that valued the company at over US$100bn. The offering was more than 20 times oversubscribed, highlighting the scale of Jio’s business as …
Euro-zone economy resilient but France contracting National data released so far suggest that GDP growth in the euro-zone excluding Ireland probably slowed a touch, to 0.2% in Q3, as the German economy continued to expand but France’s GDP contracted. The …
Rate hikes on the cards in Czechia, soft inflation to keep NBP on the sidelines The preliminary Q3 GDP figures out of Czechia and Hungary were on the disappointing side, although we expect growth in both economies to accelerate in the coming quarters. The …
Super-charged growth as Taiwan continues to benefit from AI boom Taiwan’s economy recorded another quarter of very strong growth in the third quarter, and, encouragingly, there are signs that growth is becoming more balanced. Although exports remained …
The Bank of Japan delivered no surprises when it kept its policy rate unchanged today and declared victory in its quest to lift inflation towards its 2% target. We expect the next rate hike to come in December, with rates reaching 2% by mid-2027 . The …
We’ll be discussing the outlook for UK interest rates, and what that means for mortgage rates, in a 20-minute online briefing at 3pm shortly after the Bank of England policy decision on Thursday 5 th November. (Register here .) This page has been updated …
One more hike should do the trick Australian CPI data this week will have reinforced the RBA’s hawkish bias. We now expect another 25bp hike in November, taking the cash rate to an 18-year high of 4.85%. (See our RBA Watch .) For a start, inflation has …
Propping up firms, not boosting investment Credit data showed bank loan growth slowing for the 18 th consecutive month in September, largely on the back of a collapse in household loan demand. Bank lending to corporates has held up better, with loans …
Government debt falls below 200% of GDP Data released today show that the ratio of government debt to GDP fell to 199.0% in Q2, which marks the first time since 2017 that the ratio was below 200%. What’s more, net debt fell to 125% of GDP, the lowest it …
BoJ declares victory in its quest to lift inflation The Bank of Japan delivered no surprises when it kept its policy rate unchanged today and declared victory in the fight against deflation. We expect the next rate to come in December, with rates reaching …
Overheating economy will prompt further tightening The end-month data rush shows that economic activity is holding up, the labour market remains very tight and inflation continues to strengthen. Accordingly, we’re sticking to our forecast that the Bank of …
2026 was supposed to be a year of steady recovery, but instead the commercial property market has hit a road bump as the Iran war continues. Along with policy risks and broader political uncertainty around the world, the macroeconomic environment and its …
29th October 2026
The world economy remains resilient, with business surveys suggesting that growth has accelerated in recent months. World trade is expanding strongly, helped by the AI buildout, while consumption has proved resilient to high energy prices. Recent falls in …
To explore the data please visit our interactive dashboard . This EM Focus serves as a primer. Our proprietary financial risk indicators show that most countries remain well placed to withstand recent shocks, including rising energy prices and higher …
Despite a modest boost to housing demand from the Your First Home scheme, high mortgage rates will limit house price gains to just 1.5% in the year to Q4 2027. By making it difficult for renters to buy, high mortgage rates will also push up market rents …
Middle East and North Africa Chart Pack (October '26) …
While the ECB’s decision to leave rates unchanged was expected, the policy statement and President Lagarde’s remarks suggest to us that the Bank is becoming more confident that underlying inflation is unlikely to pick up much. We think the Bank will …
The Q3 RICS survey suggests UK commercial property values remain under pressure from high interest rates, but it does not point to a sharp downturn. While occupier and investment sentiment weakened again, limited new supply is helping to support rents, …
The US is evolving from an oil superpower into a broader energy superpower, increasingly underpinned by gaseous fuels such as natural gas and LNG. In addition to increasing the US’s control over related supply chains, it could also strengthen the White …
CBE hikes as it seeks to shore up the pound The Central Bank of Egypt’s unexpected 100bp hike to its policy rate (to 20.00%) should be interpreted as an effort by policymakers to provide some support to the pound without resorting to heavy FX …
Payrolls to bounce back from post-summer slump The latest labour market indicators continue to portray a low-hire, low-fire environment. Accordingly, we’re forecasting a 70,000 rise in payrolls and a tick down in the unemployment rate to 4.1% in …
Rise from 3.75% to 4.00% all-but guaranteed and MPC may lay the ground for rise to 4.25% Lack of second-round effects to prevent rates rising much further or staying high for long But higher energy prices, a resilient economy and stabilising labour …
The revisions to South Africa’s historic GDP data mean the economy is now 5% larger, at $450bn, than previously estimated, which lowers headline public finance ratios. However, this will not change the vulnerable fiscal position or weak underlying growth …
The post-election fall in the Brazilian real is likely to add only modestly to inflation over the next year. The bigger concern is the sharp rise in bond yields which, if sustained, threatens to tighten financing conditions, compound Brazil’s fiscal …
Region aims to avoid post-mid-terms escalation There’s been a step-up in diplomatic efforts over the past week to get the US and Iran back to the negotiating table and try to draw a line under the Iran war. Members of the Mecca Pact (Saudi Arabia, …
While the Budget on 28 th October was small for housing, the surprise was the further tax hike on private landlords’ rental income from April 2027. By either directly raising rents as landlords pass on these costs to renters or by further squeezing supply …
ECB likely to hike just once more While the ECB’s decision to leave its key policy rate unchanged today was no surprise, its policy statement looks at first sight slightly dovish. We continue to think the Bank will hike only once more in this cycle, in …
Strong third quarter supports December hike The strong Q3 GDP and September PCE outturns validate the Fed’s assessment that economic activity is strong and price pressures remain elevated. That said, the slowdown in consumer spending in September provides …
Elevated interest rates and tightening credit standards will weigh on investment activity over the rest of this year and into early 2027. However, we expect euro-zone investment to rise by 10%-15% y/y in 2027, supported by lower interest rates and a …
Our base case is that the surge in S&P 500 earnings per share (EPS) since the start of the AI revolution won’t continue next year. Indeed, we suspect it will partly reverse, undermining the index in the process. That said, there are plenty of reasons why …
Energy and financials have fared well in tech selloffs over recent years, but we doubt they would continue to do so if the AI boom turned to bust. Traditional defensive sectors remain the best bet in that scenario. We forecast the S&P 500 to fall to 6,500 …
Net lending booms in September as refinancing persists Net lending to property reached £3.20bn in September, the highest monthly outturn since March 2020, when the pandemic led to a temporary halt on loan repayments for some asset owners. That strong …
Bank Indonesia’s apparent struggle to trade off the need to shore up the rupiah and support the economy (perhaps under political pressure) bears some similarities with Turkey’s experience over much of the past 15 years. To be clear, Indonesia is a long …
Economy remains resilient; moderate indirect effects appearing The small fall in the Economic Sentiment Indicator in October leaves it consistent with solid GDP growth in Q4 and suggests that the economy may be holding up a little better than implied by …
Our China Activity Proxy suggests that growth weakened further in Q3, in contrast to official figures which showed growth picking up. Exports continued to outperform on the back of strong AI and green-tech demand. But household spending has stayed subdued …
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. More signs of consumer resilience, but weaker spending around the corner September’s money and lending figures suggest households are still cushioning the blow from higher energy …
Asia has proved surprisingly resilient to the energy price shock triggered by the war in Iran. Subsidies and price controls have shielded consumers from much of the increase in global energy prices, while a boom in AI-related exports has provided a …
Underlying inflation in Australia gained traction in Q3, while leading indicators suggest that it will remain stubbornly high. With the economy not yet cooling sufficiently to ease capacity pressures, we expect the RBA to deliver a final 25bp hike at its …
Tech companies’ spending boom has arguably made them more vulnerable to borrowing costs, and they won’t get much relief from the Fed if the recent meeting is anything to go by. Our base case remains that they could weather Fed hikes pushing yields up a …
While today’s decision by the FOMC to leave interest rates unchanged was accompanied by two hawkish dissents, this was not a huge surprise, only confirming our strong suspicion ahead of the meeting that not every member is on board with a gradualist …
28th October 2026
Not all FOMC members favour a gradualist approach Officials urged a gradualist approach to tightening during the inter-meeting period, and this was reflected in today’s decision to leave the fed funds target range unchanged at 3.75%-4.00%. That said, the …
The Budget revealed only a small slippage in the plans to reduce the budget deficit and stabilise the debt to GDP ratio. Further slippage next year or more tax hikes are likely. Even so, this Budget doesn’t make the UK’s fiscal position look any more …
Today’s UK budget announcement has proven the non-event that newly-minted Chancellor Healey had signalled in advance. While his first budget is hardly inspiring, it contrasts favourably with the initial efforts of some of his recent predecessors. By …
The conservative messaging surrounding the Bank of Canada’s decision to raise the policy rate supports our view that investors are being overly presumptuous in expecting three further hikes. We still expect the headwinds of trade uncertainty and lower …
High-frequency data point to further outflows from EM bond and equity markets, which has been exacerbated by domestic developments in a handful of places (Brazil’s election, the threat of a downgrade to Indonesian equities by MSCI). But most EMs look well …
