Asian easing cycles have further to run

Tropical storms have caused disruption in Southeast Asia but should have only a modest economic impact and won’t sway upcoming policy meetings. GDP growth in the Philippines has slowed sharply as a result of the ongoing corruption scandal, and with inflation below target we expect the BSP to cut rates at its meeting on Thursday. Thailand is also contending with very weak demand and persistent deflation, and we expect the Bank of Thailand to restart its easing cycle on 17 December with more cuts to follow in 2026.