Our China Activity Proxy suggests that growth picked up in November as export strength helped to boost industrial activity. But, while China’s exports have proved resilient in the face of US tariffs, domestic demand has remained lacklustre. The economy …
30th December 2025
Green shoots of a housing recovery The healthy 0.3% m/m rise in house prices in October adds to evidence that the housing market has regained some momentum following the 75bp fall in mortgage rates earlier this year. Prices are now on track for an annual …
The Malaysian ringgit has appreciated steadily against the US dollar this year and is set to be Asia’s best-performing currency in 2025. While the appreciation has raised competitiveness concerns, these look overstated: the real effective exchange rate …
Japan’s fiscal health has continued to improve. While the expansionary measures taken by PM Takaichi mean that the budget deficit won’t narrow any further next year, it will remain very low. And with nominal GDP growth set to remain strong, the ratio of …
Asia Chart Pack (December 2025) …
29th December 2025
Economy set to bounce back At first glance the November activity data appear to be a mixed bag. However, a look under the hood suggests that the economy is poised to rebound firmly from its Q3 contraction. Taking industrial production first, the 2.6% m/m …
26th December 2025
US Chart Pack (Dec. 2025) …
23rd December 2025
Manufacturing still stagnant The rise in industrial production in November looks less impressive with a peek at the breakdown, which shows manufacturing output flat last month, and considering the move simply reverses a fall in October. Still, the FOMC …
Economy remains strong – as consumers take over The 4.3% annualised gain in third-quarter GDP was well above the consensus estimate at 3.3%, but broadly in line with our own 4.5% estimate. A lot of other forecasters missed that this is essentially a …
Weakness in October was more than just the teachers’ strike The weakness of GDP over October and November raises the chance that GDP will contract in the fourth quarter. Even accounting for the effect of strikes in various service sectors, that weakness …
So far CEE markets have proved more resilient to the slowdown in European retail rents. While risks still skew to the upside, we expect that CEE retail rent growth rates will slow further, with average increases in Warsaw and Prague undershooting those in …
Food CPI inflation has been elevated in several advanced economies in recent months, namely Japan, the UK and Canada, but we expect price pressures to ease in most cases. A combination of lower agricultural commodity prices, and a looser labour market in …
22nd December 2025
China’s green technology exports rebounded at a strong pace in year-on-year terms as China continues to reorient shipments towards emerging markets (EMs) amid US tariffs. While there remains a risk of other EMs following Mexico’s path and raising trade …
This recovery in commercial real estate is unique. Across the US, Europe, and Asia, it has been defined by persistent weakness in both investment and prices. On this special episode of The Weekly Briefing , Chief Real Estate Economist Kiran Raichura and …
Korea’s equity market has delivered an exceptional rally this year, driven by the restoration of political stability, long-overdue corporate governance reforms and strong exposure to the global AI boom. While further gains are likely in 2026, driven by …
As the year draws to a close, the key themes and questions that emerge for 2026 are in many ways familiar. Will the AI boom continue? Can the government bond market keep muddling through? And can the dollar recover after a difficult 2025? In short, our …
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. GDP growth weak, but a bit more balanced Although GDP growth was unrevised at 0.1% q/q in Q3, the shape of growth is a bit healthier and less reliant on the public sector than …
The final full week of the year delivered a smorgasbord of shutdown-affected data releases, some fresher than others and some downright rotten. Dubious disinflation November’s CPI report was the most dubious. A lack of data collection due to the shutdown …
19th December 2025
Today’s decision by the Bank of Japan (BoJ) to raise it key policy rate by another 25bp has done nothing to shore up the yen, which has fallen by another ~1% against the US dollar. Admittedly, the central bank’s decision was widely anticipated. But the …
Housing activity firms slightly, though still weak Existing home sales rose to a nine-month high of 4.13m annualised in November and should climb further in the coming months, as deals agreed when borrowing costs fell in the third quarter continue to get …
In our new UK Economic Outlook we outlined the two key developments that we think will define 2026, namely that 2026 will be the year inflation finally falls to the 2.0% target and that the Bank of England will cut interest rates further than most expect, …
Labour shortages continue to ease The record decline in the population in the third quarter (see here ) was largely due to a slump in international students at the start of the academic year, but temporary worker numbers also declined at a stronger pace …
The final major week of the year in macro is in the books. Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing joins The Weekly Briefing to explain why the latest US inflation report should be taken with a “bucketful of salt,” while reviewing the year-end moves from the …
Temporary drivers muddy the picture The sizeable fall in core retail sales in October chimes with weak consumer confidence, although large temporary drivers in either direction are partly to blame. While the solid advance estimate for November is …
The ECB was in a slightly festive mood this week as officials nudged up their forecasts for economic growth and inflation. To some extent these changes are justified because the economy has been more resilient and recent inflation data have been higher …
This final Commodities Weekly of the year takes stock of our forecasting record in 2025, and summarises our key calls for 2026. Our forecasts for energy prices to fall in 2025 have proved pleasingly accurate. As shown in Chart 1, our end-2025 Brent oil …
Colombia: rate hikes now a real possibility Tonight’s central bank meeting in Colombia will be a close call between a hold and a 25bp hike. In a recent note , we flagged the growing risk of rate hikes in Colombia and warned that a few factors could act as …
MNB opens the door to a Q1 rate cut The decision by the Hungarian central bank to leave its base rate on hold, at 6.50%, for a 15 th consecutive meeting this week was correctly predicted by all 13 analysts polled by LSEG (including ourselves). But there …
US steps up support for key minerals railroad Angola secured additional financing from the US and other partners this week as it looks to press ahead with the Lobito rail project underlining the Trump administration’s transactional approach to the region …
Drop in inflation no barrier to tightening With the outcome of today’s meeting no great surprise, the Bank of Japan used it to lock in expectations that further policy rate increases will follow . One potential obstacle is an imminent fall in inflation. …
CBR delivers another 50bp cut, cautious easing to continue The Central Bank of Russia (CBR) cut its policy rate by 50bp today, to 16.00%, as was expected by most analysts, and further monetary easing is likely next year. That said, with the disinflation …
Steady growth, easing cycles nearing an end This week we published our quarterly Asia Economic Outlook , which sets out our economic and financial market forecasts for the upcoming year. Recent developments have been broadly encouraging, prompting us to …
But fiscal stance should turn supportive again soon Both our China Activity Proxy and official activity data suggest that China’s growth has been slowing in recent months. That’s likely due in large part to the sharp pullback in fiscal spending since …
In our view, the AI bubble in emerging Market (EM) equities, which drove much of this year’s rally, hasn’t burst yet and could inflate further next year. And while large valuation gaps vis-à-vis the US suggest that the AI bubble in EMs is smaller, we …
When the Bank of Japan delivered a much-anticipated 25bp hike at its meeting today, it signalled a willingness to tighten policy further. With wage-price dynamics set to remain favourable, we expect the Bank to ultimately raise rates to 1.75% in 2027. The …
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Too little too late for both retailers and the Chancellor November’s retail sales and public finances data reveal some tentative signs of improvement, but both are coming too …
Our India Economic Outlook for Q1 2026 and accompanying dashboard contain all of our latest analysis and forecasts for India’s economy and financial markets. In our final Weekly of 2025, we highlight three important events for India economy-watchers …
BoJ hikes as expected, more tightening to follow The Bank of Japan’s decision to raise interest rates at its meeting today was clearly signalled ahead of time and therefore came as no surprise. Crucially, however, the Board’s hawkish messaging suggests …
Monetary policy to remain loose for a while Yesterday, we learnt that New Zealand’s GDP expanded by a solid 1.1% q/q in Q3, well above the RBNZ’s forecast for a 0.4% rise. As a result, financial markets believe that the Bank will be normalising policy …
Underlying price pressures still elevated With inflation still running hot, the Bank of Japan is certain to resume its tightening cycle at its meeting later today. Moreover, we think there’s a compelling case for the Bank to lift rates further than most …
Banxico shifting to a stop-start easing cycle Mexico’s central bank (Banxico) delivered another 25bp rate cut, to 7.00%, today but its communications suggest that it will likely pause at the next meeting in February. We expect a more stop-start easing …
18th December 2025
Overview – We are increasingly confident that the surge in AI-related investment this year marks the start of a multi-year capex boom. Even allowing for ongoing labour market softness that will weigh on consumption growth, we expect GDP growth to be …
The surprisingly soft US CPI data doesn’t change our view that the FOMC will take a more hawkish stance next year than generally expected. And, while one questionable CPI print is not the end of the world, it won’t help the unease evident in the long end …
Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Dec. 2025) …
The tone of today’s ECB press conference was fairly bullish on the economic outlook, but Christine Lagarde stuck rigidly to neutral messaging on future interest rate decisions. While policy changes early next year look extremely unlikely, we think cuts …
Overview – The labour market has bounced back from the US tariff shock, but uncertainty over CUSMA and lower immigration will hold back GDP growth, which we expect to average 1.2% in 2026 and 1.5% in 2027. Lower immigration will put downward pressure on …
BLS reports hard-to-believe slump in inflation in shutdown-affected release According to the BLS and its shutdown-affected consumer price data, price inflation suddenly collapsed in October and November. After increasing at an average monthly pace of …
The Bank of England struck a slightly hawkish tone while cutting interest rates from 4.00% to 3.75% today. But with inflation set to fall further than the Bank expects, we still think a rate cut in February is possible and that rates will fall to 3.00% in …
CNB’s next move likely to be a hike The Czech National Bank (CNB) left its policy rate on hold today, at 3.50%, as was widely expected by analysts, and policy settings are likely to remain on hold next year. We continue to think the CNB’s next move will …
Table of Key Forecasts Global Overview – The global economy enters 2026 under the influence of contrasting forces, which will result in moderate GDP growth overall but widening gaps in performance and policy. The economic benefits of AI will strengthen, …
