Manufacturing still struggling for momentum First-quarter manufacturing growth was the strongest in more than four years, but that largely reflects a rebound from a particularly weak fourth quarter. With higher energy prices set to be a drag on global …
16th April 2026
While supply headwinds have hit life science performance in recent years, long-term fundamentals have been reinforced by the pandemic. We expect a recovery in the short term and strong performance further out, but the sector is likely to remain a …
The Iran war has already caused tourist arrivals to Dubai to collapse and, over a longer horizon, it could dampen the Emirate’s appeal to expatriate workers and firms seeking to set up in the region. That could prick the boom in Dubai’s real estate market …
Headline inflation in the euro-zone rose to 2.6% in March and in our baseline forecast it increases to 3% in April then remains just above that level over the rest of the year. This increase largely reflects higher energy and food inflation. We suspect …
While higher unemployment and mortgage rates due to the Iran war suggest the share of loans in arrears will rise over the next few years, even in an adverse scenario it will remain low relative to past standards. We’ve already set out how higher inflation …
In the coming months, depressed shipments of non-energy commodities through the Strait of Hormuz risk disrupting some supply chains using aluminium, plastics and synthetic rubber. The risks are greatest for autos and food production. But the overall macro …
Many major Latin American economies have received a terms-of-trade boost from the surge in energy prices. But with most of the windfall likely to be saved, the impact on growth will be muted. High fuel prices pushed up inflation across the region last …
One certainty of the Iran war is that its consequences will reverberate far beyond the regional conflict. A question that repeatedly comes up in conversations with clients surrounds the geopolitical fallout, above all whether this conflict could mark a …
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Bumper growth in February probably already extinguished The surprisingly strong 0.5% m/m in February (consensus forecast 0.1%, Capital Economics 0.2%) and the upward revision …
China’s stock and bond markets have been left behind, to some extent, during the recent global relief rally, but we suspect they’ll be on the front foot again before long. It’s been a party in global markets over most of this week, but China’s invitation …
Iran war unlikely to materially dent China’s growth The March activity data point to some loss of economic momentum last month. Seasonal distortions are partly to blame, however, and growth accelerated in Q1 overall. We think growth will soften a bit …
Tight labour market suggests capacity pressures remain high The latest data will reinforce the RBA’s assessment that upside risks to inflation are greater than downside risks to the labour market. The pedestrian 17,900 rise in employment in March, marked …
The incoming Tisza government is likely to realign Hungary’s foreign policy stance towards the EU, but economic pragmatism will mean that ties with Russia (energy) and China (FDI) adjust only gradually . Under Orbán, Hungary pursued what was often …
15th April 2026
The CPI figures for March show that, so far, the energy price shock has had a relatively limited impact on EM inflation. In part, that’s because of energy subsidies (particularly in Asia) and the impact will either be delayed or show up in shortages that …
Most of the factors causing the unusual situation of core PCE inflation being higher than core CPI inflation should reverse by the turn of the year, with core PCE inflation falling while core CPI inflation edges up. The Fed prefers the PCE price index …
The war hasn’t caused the severe balance of payments strains in Iran that might have been expected, reflecting Iran’s continued ability to export hydrocarbons, the sharp rise in global energy prices, and a collapse in domestic demand that has depressed …
Despite apparent contradictions between market pricing and consensus surveys when it comes to interest rate expectations, both seem consistent with a relatively “adverse” outcome to the war. That seems out of line with other financial assets. At face …
The weaker-than-normal monsoon that is now being forecast by experts for this year threatens to compound the impact of the Middle East conflict on India’s economy. Crop yields could come under pressure at a time when there is already a shortage of …
Alternative export routes – pipelines and other terminals that bypass the Strait of Hormuz – are operating at close to full capacity, diverting around 4m bpd of oil exports. In total, that’s equivalent to roughly 20% of historical oil flows through the …
Auto-led rebound keeps good start to the year on track The healthy rebound in both manufacturing and wholesale sales in February was expected given the end of seasonal retooling at various automakers, and supports the view that GDP edged higher that …
After a strong start to the year, the early signs are that disruptions from the Iran war did not deal a heavy blow to world trade in March. In other trade developments, China continues to gain global export market share, and the US effective tariff rate …
The recent return of a positive stock-bond correlation has raised questions about the role of bonds in a portfolio, such as the traditional “60/40”. We agree that their use as a hedge may have diminished, but think they will continue to play a role, …
The recent surge in machinery orders seems to vindicate concerns by some BoJ Board members that the Bank is falling behind the curve. However, other indicators are less upbeat and with the energy cost shock set to weigh on demand, a surge in business …
Australia’s government is mulling tax changes that would make it less attractive for investors to buy rental properties. While that may result in small falls in house prices and could reduce the supply of apartments in the long run, the impact probably …
Despite the uncertainty from the Iran war, banks are still willing to lend to commercial property. A sizeable share plan on loosening credit conditions further in Q2, supported by a positive view on commercial property prices. While we think investor …
14th April 2026
The economic policy mix of the outgoing government of Viktor Orbán can partly explain the underperformance of Hungary’s economy over the past few years. And the change of government and the prospect of renewed EU fund inflows have materially improved the …
Timely indicators underscore the severe hit dealt to the Gulf economies by the war, with sharp declines in oil output alongside clear weakness in non-hydrocarbon sectors. Even if the war ends soon, we expect all six Gulf states to record negative GDP …
The incoming Tisza government inherits a mix of domestic support measures due to expire in the coming month and hard EU funding deadlines that it will need to act upon quickly. The most important constraint is the deadline on 31 st August for completing …
CPI & PPI point to another above-target gain in the core PCE deflator After a strong couple of months, the downside surprise in core producer prices in March offers some encouragement for the Fed that pipeline inflation pressures are not spiralling out of …
In our baseline scenario, the euro-zone’s energy import bill rises by 0.4% of GDP this year, which is not unusually high. In our adverse scenario it increases by three times this amount, which is high by historical standards but is still much smaller than …
Hungary’s election result has been well received by markets, but further gains may be more limited and conditional on concrete results. Investors reacted euphorically to Hungary’s election result . The forint, for example, saw its largest daily rise …
Singapore’s central bank today tightened monetary policy and raised its inflation forecast for this year in response to the crisis in the Middle East and the resulting surge in global energy prices. However, with the crisis expected to weigh heavily on …
Iran War unlikely to derail China's export boom Exports slowed last month and fell short of expectations, but this reflects seasonal distortions. For Q1 as a whole, export growth rose to its highest level in four years. Despite the energy price …
This Update answers the questions that we received during our Drop-in on Hungary’s election result. (An on-demand recording is available here .) The primary implication of the opposition Tisza party’s resounding victory will be a shift in Hungary’s …
13th April 2026
Home sales struggling even before the rebound in mortgage rates Existing home sales fell back below the historically weak 4m annualised level in March and prospects for April do not look much better, as timely indicators point to weakening housing demand …
Global Commercial Property Chartpack (Q1 2026) …
Latin America as a whole is a net beneficiary from higher energy prices, but the terms of trade boost is limited (or in Mexico’s case more than offset) by a lack of domestic refining capacity. The surge in refined product prices will also add to inflation …
Inflation to remain low despite surge in global energy prices India’s headline consumer price inflation remained low in March, as administered fuel prices continued to shield consumers from the surge in global oil prices. With inflation set to remain …
This Weekly Roundup covers the uncertainties around the Middle East ceasefire, more on private credit stress, China’s green tech advantage, Hungary’s big electoral moment and more. 1. The end of US–Iran talks in Islamabad likely does not mark the end of …
Collapse in bank lending extends further The slowdown in credit growth resumed in March as weakening household demand dragged bank loan growth down further. While the net increase in new credit surged in March, that just reflects the usual post-Lunar New …
The weekend’s news is potentially another blow to markets, although investors have so far interpreted it fairly cautiously. Even in a benign scenario, though, we suspect there’s little medium-term upside for Treasuries. Elsewhere, we suspect the yen’s …
The breakdown in talks between the US and Iran does not necessarily signal the end of efforts to resolve the conflict but the introduction of a US naval blockade on Iranian shipments transiting the Strait does introduce a new potential flashpoint. From a …
We are hosting a drop-in on Monday 13th April at 13:30 BST / 14:30 CEST to discuss the election results. Sign up here . Historic turning point as Tisza heads for a supermajority Victory for the opposition Tisza party, and what appears to be a …
12th April 2026
Squeeze on real incomes predates the war February’s personal income and spending figures released on Thursday did little to inspire confidence in households’ ability to withstand much higher fuel prices. Although real spending eked out a modest 0.10% m/m …
10th April 2026
This online briefing examined the latest decisions from the Federal Reserve, European Central Bank and Bank of England, and how policymakers are balancing the inflationary impact of higher energy prices against any drag on …
Are signs of stress in private credit a risk to broader financial markets? What could this mean for funding across the US economy? And is this anything like 2008? Amid growing concerns that, like the sighting of one cockroach, a handful of private credit …
While there is a long way to go towards a lasting end to the war in the Middle East, developments this week suggest that the worst of the hostilities may be over. If so, Canada will have escaped with little more than a temporary boost to headline …
