NBR on hold, rate cuts some way off The decision by the National Bank of Romania (NBR) to leave its policy rate on hold today, at 6.50%, came as no surprise, and a return to monetary easing is still some way off. Our current forecast is for the next rate …
12th November 2025
The consensus view of European prime office rental growth was generally revised up for this year and next. Even so, we remain more upbeat than the consensus given our view that low levels of new supply in the next few years and solid demand for prime …
A combination of delays to LNG export capacity in the US and greater demand for natural gas from AI data centres will, all else equal, constrain the supply of LNG over the coming years. However, against the backdrop of plentiful supplies from Qatar and …
India’s headline consumer price inflation fell to a near 26-year low in October and with inflation set to remain well below the 4% target over the coming quarters, we continue to expect the RBI to resume its easing cycle in December. Headline inflation …
We think a continued softening of the UK labour market and a sizeable tightening of fiscal policy later this month means that the Bank of England (BoE) will cut its policy rate further over the next year or so than currently discounted. In turn, that …
11th November 2025
Defence spending across much of Asia, Central and Eastern Europe and the Middle East is set to rise in the coming years, driven by heightened regional tensions and US pressure on allies to take greater responsibility for their own security. While the …
The deterioration in the entry-level jobs market has sparked concerns that an “AI jobpocalypse” is upon us. While AI is a contributing factor – especially in some specialised fields like software programming –we believe it is not the primary driver. This …
The latest NFIB survey provides further evidence that the labour market has not deteriorated any further since official jobs data stopped being reported. The headline NFIB Small Business Optimism Index edged down by 0.6 points to 98.2 in October, though …
Fall in inflation, but December too early for a first cut The slightly larger-than-expected fall in inflation in Brazil, to 4.7% y/y in October won’t prompt Copom to kick off its easing cycle at its next meeting in December. But with the economy weakening …
The risks to Ireland from President Trump’s tax reforms now appear less likely to materialise than they did a few months ago. This, and the recent economic data, suggest the economic outlook remains strong. Earlier this year Ireland looked at risk from …
We aren’t convinced that cheaper imports from China had much to do with the recent sharp fall in inflation in the rest of Asia. While we expect inflation to remain soft next year, that reflects our view that economic activity will be sluggish rather than …
We’re hosting a 20-minute online briefing at 3pm GMT on Wednesday 19 th November to discuss what to expect in the Budget and what it could mean for the UK economy, UK housing and the markets. (Register here .) This page has been updated with additional …
Japanese carmakers are rapidly losing global market share as the country’s vehicle industry is a laggard in the rollout of electric vehicles. While the industry’s share of GDP has held up well in recent years, we still expect it to fall sharply over the …
Aggregate EM GDP growth is likely to slow over the coming quarters but, as ever, there are many stories playing out at country level. Brazil is likely to lead the slowdown while growth in China will remain soft. Mexico and Argentina have bottomed out, but …
10th November 2025
The latest polls suggest that a right-wing candidate is likely to win Chile’s presidential election on 16 th November, probably leading to more pro-business policymaking and a tighter fiscal stance than is currently the case. It’s not clear that this is …
The government’s new immigration targets raise the risk that most forecasters, including the Bank of Canada, are overestimating the outlook for population growth. While that presents a downside risk to GDP growth, the more important implication could be …
Alternative data suggest the economy continued to perform reasonably well early in the fourth quarter. Fears of a renewed labour market downturn, amid reports of mass layoffs at several large firms, are not reflected in still-muted jobless claims or the …
UK Budget …
Brazil has the second largest rare earth deposits on the planet but negligible production. Interest in rare earth mining in Brazil has surged in the past couple of years, although it will take time, as well as more policy and financial support, for this …
President Trump has described the Supreme Court case over his tariff regime – with characteristic restraint – as “literally, LIFE OR DEATH for our Country”. Hyperbole aside, the stakes are indeed high. The Court’s decision, which may not come for several …
South Africa’s Government of National Unity (GNU) has made important progress in tackling supply-side bottlenecks in the energy and logistics sectors. But, overall, our assessment is that the GNU’s successes have been concentrated on the fiscal front …
A bump in the profile Egypt’s headline inflation rate rose from 11.7% y/y in September to 12.5% y/y in October (see Chart 1), its fastest pace since July, but policymakers at the Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) have plenty of room to continue the monetary …
Jitters around US tech stocks reinforce the extent to which the market has become reliant on continued AI optimism. We see little on the fundamentals, though, that points to an imminent bursting of the AI “bubble”. We think tech will remain the main game …
Headline CPI inflation returned to positive territory last month, with core inflation climbing to a three-year high. But these gains largely reflect temporary factors, most notably higher gold prices, and don’t suggest to us that China’s deflation problem …
The Supreme Court justices appeared sceptical this week that President Donald Trump’s use of emergency powers to impose sweeping reciprocal tariffs was legal. If the Court rules against Trump invoking the International Emergency Economic Powers Act …
7th November 2025
In a speech on Tuesday this week the Chancellor, Rachel Reeves, gave the biggest hint yet that large tax rises are coming in the Budget on 26 th November. And in a submission to the Office for Budget Responsibility, she reportedly signalled she may break …
Government shutdown weighing on households’ mood The further decline in the already weak University of Michigan consumer sentiment measure to a three-year low of 50.3 in November confirms that the government shutdown is adding to household anxiety, …
Chile’s election heads into the final stretch Chileans head to the polls on Sunday 16 th November to renew all seats in the Chamber of Deputies and half of the seats in the Senate as well as elect to a new president. The latest polls show that left-wing …
Here we are 38 days into a US government shutdown that most had thought would be over by now. And yet there is little sign that investors care. Admittedly, gauges of implied volatility in US equity and Treasury markets have picked up over the last week. …
Soft inflation prompts another 25bp cut in Poland The communications following the decision by the National Bank of Poland (NBP) this week to cut its policy rate by 25bp, to 4.25%, suggest that further monetary easing will be data dependent and leaves a …
Who was Rachel Reeves really speaking to when she hinted at higher taxes this week? How much of a threat is the Supreme Court to Treasury tariff revenues? And how useful is “G2” as a lens for the new global order? Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing …
This week brought the first budget of Mark Carney’s premiership. We gave our initial thoughts here . The upshot is that, having been billed as “generational” and able to combat the seismic shocks the economy has faced, the final version was a bit of a …
Another bumper employment gain The surprise boost to employment and fall in the unemployment rate in October reinforces the Bank of Canada’s view that it should now sit on the sidelines and await more clarify on the impact of tariffs on the economy and …
Chinese purchases boost wheat prices, for now The announcement this week that China would resume purchases of US wheat for the first time since October 2024, following the latest Trump-Xi talks , lifted wheat and corn prices to 4-month highs. …
The leadership has tempered its growth ambitions Officials have provided some new guidance on their long-term growth targets. At a forum this week, Premier Li Qiang said that China’s GDP is likely to exceed RMB170trn by 2030. The use of “exceed” implies …
MYR the best performing Asian currency this year The Malaysian ringgit has extended its gains this week against the US dollar and is now the best performing Asian currency this year. (See Chart 1.) The currency has been buoyed by a run of …
The latest data confirm that the corruption scandal is having a severe impact on the Philippines economy, increasing the chances of the central bank cutting rates at its next meeting in December. Our initial response to the GDP figures can be viewed here …
Data released this week showed that euro-zone industry is still struggling. Though German industrial production rose in September that reversed just a third of the big fall in August. And output was still close to a record low. Production in the euro-zone …
Foreign inflows return but challenges remain Foreign investors have returned as net buyers of Indian equities over recent weeks (see Chart 1), helping the MSCI India index gain 3.8% since the start of October. Chart 1: Non-Residents’ Net Purchases of …
Nigeria feels Trump’s wrath Nigeria became the latest country to face the wrath of US President Donald Trump this week amid accusations of attacks on Christians in the country. For now, though, there are reasons to think that any economic impact will be …
If t he Chancellor raises taxes by around £38bn (1.1% of GDP) in the Budget on 26 th November as we expect, that may knock 0.2 percentage points off our 2026 GDP growth forecast of 1.2%. But it supports our view that CPI inflation will fall further than …
We’re hosting a 20-minute online briefing at 3pm GMT on Wednesday 19 th November to discuss what to expect in the Budget on 26 th November and what it could mean for the UK economy, UK housing and the financial markets. (Register here .) This page has …
Productivity growth will pick up in the long run We learnt this week that Australian imports of automatic data processing (ADP) machines surged by 135% y/y in September. As a result, we estimate that imports of ADP equipment, as a share of GDP, are on …
Cracks emerge in China’s export resilience Headline export growth slowed sharply last month. US tariffs remained a drag, but the latest slowdown was led by shipments to other markets, suggesting that the renminbi's recent trade-weighted appreciation may …
Domestic demand set to improve but downside risks remain elevated GDP growth in the Philippines slowed sharply in the third quarter but we doubt this weakness will persist. Economic activity is set to pick up in the near term as domestic demand …
Asia-Pacific valuation scores were unchanged in Q3, as property and bond yields saw little movement. While most markets are now fairly valued according to our scores, we expect high risk-free rates to constrain property yield declines. … APAC Commercial …
