D.C. & Miami remain bottom of the apartment rankings

The apartment market appears to have turned a corner, with the national vacancy rate stabilizing in recent quarters as new supply moderates, which we expect will restore some pricing power to building owners. However, the same is not true everywhere. Miami still has a large number of units set for delivery this year and next, while strong permit issuance in D.C. points to elevated new additions persisting. In both markets, we expect supply to outpace absorption over our five-year forecast, reducing occupancy and pushing rents lower. Major markets like Boston and San Francisco are likely to see slightly better but still sluggish rent and NOI growth, despite smaller pipelines, as weak job markets and unfavorable demographics weigh on demand. Most other markets should deliver solid returns, with southern metros such as Houston, Dallas, and Atlanta performing best, driven by robust rental growth of roughly 4.5% p.a. in 2026–30 and capital values rising back above their 2022 peaks, producing total returns above 8% p.a.