NCREIF Q4 2025: Returns of 4.9% highlight modest recovery

Total returns of 1.1% q/q in Q4 2025 were more-or-less unchanged from the previous quarter and helped returns for 2025 rise to just under 5%. That highlights the modest recovery in commercial real estate, with offices and industrial both underperforming with annual returns of 3.4% and 4.5% respectively. Looking ahead, with the gap in between cap rates of unsold and sold assets continuing to grow, that implies capital values are at risk over the next year or so.