Europe Commercial Property Outlook Too early to call the bottom, with offices set for more pain A weak economic outlook underpins our view that prime rent growth will continue to slow in Europe next year. At the same time, valuations remain stretched and the pace of recent yield rises suggests... 8th December 2023 · 35 mins read
US Commercial Property Valuation Monitor US Commercial Property Valuation Monitor (Q4 2023) Property yields rose across all sectors in Q3, but this was offset by a sharp rise in alternative asset yields towards the end of the quarter. As a result, all sectors saw a deterioration in... 6th December 2023 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Rising cost of foreign holidays to support hotel demand Hotel demand has suffered recently from the impact of high inflation and interest rates weighing on discretionary spending. But thanks to the soaring cost of foreign holidays and a revival in... 5th December 2023 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Chart Pack US Commercial Property Chart Pack (Q4 23) All-property values are down by 12.5% since mid-2022, but we expect an eventual decline of above 20%. Much of the correction at the all-property level is driven by our forecast for cap rates to go... 4th December 2023 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Industrial bubble poses a small risk to rents With hindsight, part of the boom in the industrial sector seen during and after the pandemic now looks like a bubble. That raises the risk that the overhang of assets started during that period of... 1st December 2023 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Data centres to remain non-core, despite AI boost Our AI work has identified data centres as a clear winner from these innovations. That the sector is already in rude health is borne out by the latest real estate data. But it remains to be seen if it... 30th November 2023 · 5 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update IPF Consensus Forecasts (Nov.) The latest IPF Consensus Survey shows that forecasters have downwardly revised their expectations for 2024, as a downgrade in capital value growth outweighed some improvement in rents. That leaves us... 29th November 2023 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Update 2024 rate cuts will provide no respite to price corrections Even though we expect the Fed to go into cutting mode within the next six months and the 10-year Treasury yield to fall below 4% in 2024, we don’t expect this to provide any respite for real estate... 29th November 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Rapid Response Lending to commercial property (Oct. 23) While net lending to commercial property increased for the eighth consecutive month in October, this hasn’t translated into higher investment volumes – which fell back again in October. But further... 29th November 2023 · 2 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update Higher r* means more pain for property Our recent r* work reinforces the view that property yields will stay relatively high longer term. That implies global returns in low single digits over the next decade or so, well below pre-pandemic... 27th November 2023 · 4 mins read
UK Commercial Property Outlook Decline in risk-free rates to stabilize returns Property yields rose further in Q3, but with risk-free rates now falling back, we think they will peak by the end of 2023. That will help stabilize capital values, but, given historically narrow yield... 24th November 2023 · 23 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Valuation Monitor Europe Commercial Property Valuation Monitor (Q4 2023) Property yields rose across all sectors in Q3 and a surge in office yields drove the sharpest rise in all-property yields so far this year. However, this was matched by the spike in bond yields in... 23rd November 2023 · 0 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Where are prospects best for data centers? Since early 2020 there has been a clear divergence in performance between data centers and the traditional commercial real estate sectors. Looking forward, we expect the hyperscale sub-sector will... 20th November 2023 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Milan office yield looks unsustainable Milan prime office yields appear very low both compared to other alternative assets and other euro-zone countries. By any standards, office property there looks highly overvalued. But looking ahead... 20th November 2023 · 4 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack (Q4 2023) Our Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis. The slowdown in rent growth so far this year is likely to persist given the weak economic backdrop... 16th November 2023 · 0 mins read
