The recent soft batch of activity data across many parts of Latin America is likely to continue and GDP growth will come in below consensus expectations in the region’s major economies over 2027-28. With inflation set to remain above target for some time, …
29th September 2026
China’s soaring exports are widening global trade imbalances in ways that echo the run-up to the Global Financial Crisis. History suggests that at some point these must narrow. This could happen in several ways: the least painful would be through …
While Colombia isn’t facing the balance of payments strains that an IMF program is designed to tackle, an agreement with the Fund – as the government seems to be aiming for – could make austerity plans more credible and reduce debt servicing costs. Given …
House prices resilient but likely to come under pressure House prices remained resilient in July but will eventually come under pressure as the latest rise in mortgage rates to their current level of 7.1% takes a toll. We expect prices to be unchanged …
Growth slows before tariffs begin to bite The unchanged GDP reading in July and small projected rise in August should mean GDP growth slowed to around 1.4% annualised in the third quarter, given the weakness we expect this month amid the hit to real …
Overview – Higher interest rates brought about by the ongoing energy shock are likely to push up prime property yields and hit capital values in the coming quarters, though rental growth should remain resilient. However, if we are right that interest …
Economy still growing, service sector price pressures quite low The euro-zone’s Economic Sentiment Indicator fell slightly in September but was still at a level consistent with steady growth. With price pressures in services reasonably well contained we …
Net lending strengthens in August, but ongoing uncertainty to be a drag Net lending was strong again in August, reaching £2.05bn, the highest monthly outturn since March. At £3.62bn, the rolling three-month total remained relatively low though, weighed …
Measures of EM fiscal risk premia are very low, which partly reflects genuine policy improvements in some high-risk economies. But a few countries such as Mozambique and Tunisia still face the risk of default. And in a handful of larger EMs (e.g. Brazil, …
We’re hosting a special in-person roundtable event at our London office on Wednesday 14 th October to discuss what Chancellor Healey could announce in his first Budget on 28 th October, which taxes may rise and what it all means for the economy and …
Middle East and North Africa Chart Pack (September '26) …
The RBA hiked rates as expected and kept the door open to further tightening. We still think the cash rate has peaked, as the cooling labour market should help reduce capacity pressures. However, the risk of another hike has clearly increased. The RBA’s …
RBA delivers a hawkish hike The RBA hiked rates as expected, but it left the door ajar for further tightening in the months ahead. While we continue to believe that the cash rate has now peaked, risks to this view are growing. The RBA’s decision to raise …
Consumer spending likely to slow in earnest The weakness in household spending in August suggests that the recent acceleration in consumption is already losing momentum. That probably won’t prevent the RBA from hiking rates at its meeting later today, but …
We suspect the “Your First Home” scheme announced by the Prime Minster over the weekend will boost both housing transactions and housing starts from 2027. But this effect will probably be more than offset by mortgage rates staying higher for longer than …
28th September 2026
The experience from Brazil’s 2018 and 2022 elections is that a victory for Flávio Bolsonaro would support equities (a boost of 10-20% seems plausible) and pull local currency bond yields down sharply. A Lula victory might lead to equity market …
The US and China have announced significant tariff cuts on goods covered by the new bilateral Board of Trade. But the scheme only covers “non-sensitive” goods that make up a small share of China’s total exports to the US. The average US tariff rate on …
Asia Chart Pack (September 2026) …
Africa Chart Pack (Sep. 26) …
This Autumn’s Budget will be a crucial test of the Burnham government’s economic strategy. With the new Chancellor under pressure to maintain fiscal discipline while delivering on the government’s policy ambitions, what could John Healey announce on 28th …
The world economy has gained momentum in Q3. Business surveys have improved, trade is booming amid the AI buildout, and consumption has been resilient to high energy prices. Meanwhile, jobs growth has stabilised in most DMs and rising bond yields have had …
Despite China’s apparently robust economic growth over the past decade, the returns from its stock market have been poor and its bond yields are very low. We think the next decade will be similarly disappointing, potentially contributing to further net …
The surge in the 10-year Treasury yield to ~5.25% reflects higher oil prices and a strong US economy more than AI debt issuance or fiscal concerns. We continue to forecast this yield to fall this year and drop all the way to 4.25% by the end of 2027 as …
A US diesel export ban would be particularly disruptive for Latin America as the region is reliant on the US for supply and has large diesel-intensive sectors, including road freight transport, agriculture and mining. Vulnerabilities appear highest in …
Perhaps the most striking takeaway from the Trump-Xi summit in Washington last week is just how low expectations have fallen on both sides. One of the few concrete outcomes was the news that both countries had agreed to reduce tariffs on $60bn of goods …
Overview – The ongoing energy price shock is a further temporary setback to the UK economy rather than a permanent blow. If we’re right that over the next year the economy and labour market won’t be strong enough to turn the energy-induced rise in CPI …
Despite rising inflation, geopolitical tensions and higher bond yields, the global economy has continued to defy expectations. But can that resilience endure? Our Global Economic Outlook assessed the prospects for growth, inflation and interest rates …
25th September 2026
Our China Activity Proxy suggests that growth slowed further to just 1.3% y/y in August. This reflects lingering typhoon disruptions and continued weakness in fiscal spending, with local governments struggling to find viable investment projects. Exports …
Our base case remains that the Treasury rout will eventually turn into a rally, even though the risks of an even deeper sell-off are clearly growing. Tough times get tougher for Treasuries It was yet another challenging week for US Treasuries, with the …
Low Barr to further hikes in the near-term This week, we published our US Quarterly Economic Outlook , in which we laid out our view that the Fed will raise its key policy rate by 25bp on two further occasions over the next six months, in December and …
In a speech given on Monday, Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem returned to the issue of “excess capacity”. By the Bank’s own (outdated) estimates, the economy has been in a state of excess capacity since early 2024 , with domestic demand weakened by …
Pageantry fails to mask deep divisions The elaborate welcome and ceremony surrounding President Xi’s state visit to the US could not hide the lack of substantive progress. More than anything, we think the outcomes announced so far highlight the deep …
The new productivity estimates for the period from 1997 to 2024 published by the ONS have triggered a wave of excitement about the productivity outlook. Based on the new methodology, which does not rely on the flawed LFS, the ONS now estimates that output …
What did President Xi Jinping’s summit with Donald Trump tell us about the future of US-China relations? Has the latest trade truce brought the two sides any closer to resolving their differences? And with China’s exports booming despite weak domestic …
Ethiopia’s growth rebound at risk from renewed war Renewed fighting this week underlines the real risk of Ethiopia sliding back towards a full-blown civil war. Beyond the human cost, this would threaten the country’s growth recovery by disrupting …
Overview – Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa should remain resilient despite high energy prices and tighter global financial conditions. We’re positive relative to the consensus on growth in much of the region, including Nigeria, Ghana and, from next year, …
Colombia: BanRep set to deliver a final hike In our Latin America Outlook , we flagged that this month’s interest rate decision in Colombia would be a close call between a hold and another hike. We argued that the strength in the peso after President de …
What would force Bank Indonesia to hike again? Bank Indonesia left interest rates on hold at 5.75% for a third consecutive meeting on Wednesday but recent experience suggests that further sharp falls in the rupiah in the coming weeks would push the …
Wright is right on a US diesel export ban The prospect of a US ban on diesel exports threatens to make a bad situation even worse. There is more detail here and here , but in short, if a diesel ban remains in place after diesel inventories are fully …
We noted this week in our Commodities service that there is a growing risk of a diesel export ban by the US, probably before the mid-terms. (See here and here .) A ban may be partial rather than total and may prove short-lived given that it could be …
Overview – Stronger fiscal spending should lift growth over the final months of the year. But we expect growth to slow further over the medium term. Domestic Demand – A pick-up in wage growth should reduce some pressure on consumption. And a year-end …
Coal stocks are falling towards critically low levels India’s electricity system is heavily dependent on coal (see Chart 1), making reliable supplies of the fuel crucial to keeping the lights on and industry running. Chart 1: Electricity Generation by …
We think the contentious US-China trade negotiations are much more important for Chinese equities than US ones. Meanwhile, the current backdrop favours a further renminbi rally. At the time of writing, the US-China meetings in Washington seem to have sent …
Hungary’s euro adoption in the spotlight The Hungarian central bank’s announcement this week of a lower 2.5% inflation target from 2028 puts it one step further along the path to euro adoption. The meeting also saw a pause in the easing cycle, with the …
But tighter policy will ease capacity constraints This week’s Intergenerational Report highlighted the potential for AI to underpin stronger productivity growth, while acknowledging that the economy-wide impact in Australia has been “very modest so far”. …
10-year JGB yield reaches 31-year high The global bond sell-off deepened this week, with the 10-year JGB yield climbing to 3.11%. Our forecast is that the 10-year JGB yield will settle around 3%. (See here and our Outlook ). However, even if it rose …
US Commercial Property Chart Pack Q3 2026 …
24th September 2026
