Rice prices hitting fresh highs The contribution of rice to headline inflation weakened from 0.6%pts in Q2 to 0.3%-pts in September but the 11% m/m jump in retail prices rice in the Tokyo CPI in October suggests it won’t decline much further. In fact, the …
7th November 2025
Statement hints at slowdown in the easing cycle Mexico’s central bank (Banxico) cut interest rates by another 25bp, to 7.25%, today but the shift in its forward guidance suggests policymakers are now more cautious about committing to further rate cuts …
6th November 2025
Q3 GDP estimates and early data for October indicate that the global economy continues to expand apace, defying expectations of a slowdown. Several Asian economies are leading the way, with strong AI-related demand offsetting the drag from tariffs. In …
Microsoft adds to AI pile-in to the Gulf Last week, it was Saudi’s Future Investment Initiative which pushed AI in the region; this week, it was the turn of the UAE’s Adipec conference, which saw several deals struck on the sidelines. The Gulf appears to …
Lower immigration, increased use of AI and cyclical weakness outside of the main tech sectors are the key reasons for the slowdown in private sector hiring this year. There is a risk that the drags from immigration restrictions and AI will increase, but …
We’re hosting a 20-minute online briefing at 3pm GMT today to discuss the issues that will influence the path of UK interest rates from here. (Register here .) And on 19th November, we'll be online for 20 minutes at 3pm GMT to answer questions about what …
Door closes on the easing cycle The decision by the Czech National Bank (CNB) to leave its policy rate on hold today, at 3.50%, was widely expected by analysts, and policy settings are likely to remain unchanged next month. That said, in contrast to other …
We expect euro-zone GDP growth to remain fairly slow in the coming years. Germany’s fiscal stimulus should provide a temporary and fairly modest boost, and we don’t think it will do much to raise growth elsewhere. Meanwhile, we think inflation will …
For updated and more detailed analysis see here . Bank strongly suggests this is a pause in interest rate cuts rather than the end The Bank of England stressed that today’s decision to leave interest rates at 4.00% is a pause in the downward trend in …
Euro-zone households still reluctant to spend Euro-zone retail sales fell slightly in September but expanded in the third quarter as a whole. With real incomes and consumer credit both rising, we think consumption will continue to expand in the coming …
The abolition of tariffs justified under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) would be bad news for Treasuries, and perhaps not as good for the US dollar and stock market as it might seem. Judging by prediction markets investors had, …
Population growth is expected to slow over the next five years, but projections show wide differences across European cities. French and German markets are set to see the weakest demographic growth, which we think will weigh on residential performance, in …
Construction activity falls to post-COVID low The headline CIPS construction PMI reversed the gains seen over the previous two months and fell to 44.1 in October, the lowest reading since the COVID lockdowns of early 2020. In part that was due to a large …
Norges Bank in no hurry to cut Today’s decision to leave the policy rate at 4.0% came as no surprise and policymakers are clearly in no rush to cut interest rates again. We have pencilled in the next reduction for March, but the risks are skewed towards a …
CPIF inflation is set to fall temporarily to around 1% in 2026, largely due to the impact of cuts to VAT on food and taxes on electricity. But the Riksbank is unlikely to cut its policy rate further. In fact, a rate hike is likely to be the next move as …
Rates on hold, but more easing likely next year Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) today left its policy rate unchanged at 2.75%, and sounded in no hurry to adjust interest rates again soon. We think rates will be on hold for the next few months, but with growth …
German industry still not out of the woods The rebound in German industrial production in September reversed only a fraction of August’s fall and left output still extremely weak. The poor outlook for industry is a key reason why we expect German GDP to …
GDP growth will slow from its current above-trend rate to a more sustainable pace. However, with underlying inflation set to remain above the Bank of Japan’s 2% target, we expect the Bank to resume its tightening cycle in January and lift its policy rate …
With base pay growth sluggish, all eyes will be on the Shunto Although wage growth picked up a notch in September, regular earnings growth remained lacklustre. That said, if we’re right that next year’s spring wage negotiations will result in a strong …
BCB not rushing to cut rates The Brazilian central bank’s hawkish statement accompanying the decision to leave the Selic rate at 15.00% all but ends any hope of an interest rate cut before year-end. Our new base case is that the easing cycle starts in …
5th November 2025
Tax rises of about £38bn in the Budget on 26 th November, mostly for households and potentially on property, would be a headwind for housing activity and prices, particularly at the top end of the housing market and for the most expensive UK regions. A …
If today’s respite in stock markets doesn’t last, some tech-heavy ones in Asia would be particularly vulnerable to a deeper AI-related pull-back judging by their performance overnight. To re-cap, Korea, Taiwan and Japan had been among the best-performing …
After falling in Q2, growth in global goods trade looks to have picked up somewhat in Q3 on the back of strong Asian exports. The latest survey data point to a slowdown in global goods trade. But as strong demand for AI-related goods helps to offset the …
Plenty of oil on water; revising down our gold forecast While the fallout from US sanctions on Russian oil majors has yet to manifest in the data, Russian seaborne oil exports are strong, and a wider deluge of oil in transit is still set to come ashore. …
Rise in prices paid index concerning but not a disaster The broad-based strength in October’s ISM services survey was overshadowed by the increase in the prices paid index to a three-year high, leaving it consistent with “supercore” PCE inflation rising …
The EU has prioritised becoming more self-sufficient in the production of critical raw materials. While it is making progress, it is likely to remain heavily dependent on China and China-aligned countries for many years. This will leave Europe’s …
Fears that weak payroll gains will cause a sharp slowdown in consumption growth over the next year are overblown. The immigration crackdown will prevent wage growth from slowing much further, and therefore support overall compensation despite softer …
NBP cuts by 25bp, but easing cycle probably close to an end The National Bank of Poland (NBP) cut its policy rate by 25bp today, to 4.25%, but we think the monetary easing cycle doesn’t have much further to go. We’re maintaining our forecast for only one …
We expect the Chancellor, Rachel Reeves, to raise taxes by about £38bn in the Budget on 26 th November, which will trim GDP growth, weigh on inflation and contribute to more interest rate cuts. That is likely to be received warmly by the markets and could …
ADP shows hiring uptick, but trend remains weak The 42,000 rebound in ADP private employment in October lends support to the view that firms are resuming hiring now they have more clarity on trade and immigration policy. That said, the usual caveat …
Mortgage activity going sideways Mortgage activity dropped back this month as further declines in borrowing costs, which had boosted mortgage activity in August and September, were minimal. While the ongoing government closure shouldn’t affect mortgage …
Romania has seen one of the largest bond market rallies across EMs in the past six months, but we think a further sustained fall in yields is unlikely. A lot more fiscal tightening is needed to stabilise the public finances, which will be difficult to …
Saudi Arabia’s twin budget and current account deficits have widened on the back of low oil export receipts and this trend is likely to continue over the coming quarters. While the adjustment to low oil prices will not be as harsh as in 2014-16, the …
Rises in French government bond yields point to material increases in property yields in the next year or so. However, corporate bond yields, as an alternative benchmark, suggest less need for property yields to rise. That said, even these rule out …
The improvement in South Africa’s budget position and sharp fall in local currency bond yields mean less is at stake at next week’s Medium-Term Budget Policy Statement (MTBPS) than there was at the Budget back in February. Fiscal policy settings will be …
Riksbank to leave rates unchanged until late 2026 While the Riksbank left its policy rate at 1.75% and its forward guidance unchanged today, the economic data have improved significantly over the past few months and have given us greater confidence that …
Official figures released today showed that Indonesia’s GDP growth stood at 5.0% y/y in Q3, but we don’t have much faith in the data – growth has been close to 5% for the past few years. Our proprietary activity tracker and other indicators suggest growth …
The main factors behind the ongoing weakness in productivity are the demise of the country’s mining sector, a dearth of business investment and a post-pandemic surge in net migration. The latter has largely run its course, which should help lift Australia …
The 2025 Budget leaves the federal deficit roughly double its current size out till the end of the decade, but it will still average just 2.5% of GDP, implying the new measures hardly constitute the “generational” change Finance Minister François-Philippe …
4th November 2025
The tepid Q3 jobs report should ensure that the RBNZ cuts rates by another 25bp at its meeting on 26 th November. However, given signs that the labour market is bottoming out, we suspect that this cut will mark the last in the Bank’s easing cycle. The …
The S&P 500’s reliance on big-tech sectors to drive returns is clearly problematic when sentiment towards those sectors sours, as has happened today. But we think this reliance will ultimately continue to prove beneficial over the coming year. To recap, …
The recent resurgence of recession fears in Mexico appears overblown to us, but there’s no doubt that the economy is struggling. While most attribute the weakness to higher tariffs, tight fiscal policy appears to be the main culprit. Additional fiscal …
Our CE UK Wage Indicator extracts the overall signal from a range of measures of wage growth and suggests that while pay growth probably isn’t rising as fast as the official data suggest, it isn’t slowing much either and remains well above rates …
A strong start to Q4 October’s batch of PMIs showed a pick-up, suggesting that non-oil private sectors in the Gulf have continued to fare better than expected amid the backdrop of low oil prices. Elsewhere, Egypt’s survey also pointed toward improved …
When the RBA left policy settings unchanged at its meeting today, it struck a rather even-handed tone on the risks to its outlook. Although an extended pause appears likely given the ongoing strength in inflation, we still think that the Bank will cut …
RBA remains on hold, but leaves door open for cuts down the road When the Reserve Bank of Australia left policy settings unchanged at its meeting today, it remained even-handed about the risks to its outlook. Although an extended pause appears likely, we …
