While government bonds have rallied since news of a ceasefire broke, they have unwound less of their initial sell-off than other assets. We think the rally has further to go in most countries, albeit we think the room for Treasuries to rally looks …
10th April 2026
Tech occupations are the most exposed to the impact of AI, but that doesn’t necessarily mean that sector will see the most job losses. That said, a decline in the share of pre-lets to the sector in the UK suggests tech firms are growing wary of expanding …
Record low for sentiment as inflation expectations rise The plunge in consumer sentiment to a record low in April lends some support to our forecast that real consumption growth will be weak this quarter, even if the link between sentiment and spending …
Trade data point to robust external positions The US-Iran ceasefire announced this week has raised hopes that the war could soon come to an end. We covered the implications in a note and in an online briefing, an on-demand recording of which can be found …
We are revising our forecast for ECB policy rates (again!) to reflect our reassessment of the outlook for European natural gas prices. In our new baseline scenario, the price of TTF ends the year at €50 rather than €70 per MWh, as we had previously …
India goes to the polls India’s state election cycle resumed this week with the start of voting in Kerala and Assam. The union territory of Puducherry will vote on 9 th April. Tamil Nadu will go to the polls on 23 rd April, and voting in West Bengal …
All of our coverage on the Middle East conflict can be found here . Key pieces are below. This week we have lowered our European natural gas price forecasts in our “baseline” scenario. (See here .) As a result, we now expect UK CPI inflation to peak at …
CBK may be underestimating inflation shock The energy shock prompted the Central Bank of Kenya (CBK) to halt its easing cycle at yesterday’s meeting, leaving the policy rate unchanged at 8.75%. While policymakers sound relatively sanguine about the risks …
The latest Weekly Briefing covers the global outlook, financial markets and energy. Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing explains what the ceasefire in the Middle East means for growth and inflation, how quickly the world economy could recover if it holds, …
Modest moves offer little of note March’s uneventful Labour Force Survey, paired with the drop back in oil prices in recent days, supports our view that the Bank of Canada will be content to wait until next year to change policy. The 14,100 rise in …
Headline CPI inflation jumps back above 3% The jump in headline CPI inflation to 3.3% in March, from 2.4%, was as expected due to the surge in energy prices, with the more important development for the Fed the lack of any major accompanying upward …
It is early days into this ceasefire and there is huge uncertainty around whether it holds and, if it doesn’t, what it means for future negotiations and strikes on energy facilities. For what it’s worth, our baseline scenario is that the conflict …
China making inroads with its southern neighbours We argued back in January that while President Trump’s tariffs and antagonistic foreign policy had not fundamentally altered the core alliances that held the US bloc together, it had led to shifts in …
The rise in Brazilian inflation, to 4.1% y/y in March, was driven almost entirely by the energy shock feeding through to transport inflation; underlying price pressures eased last month. If the fall in global energy prices this week is sustained, that …
Energy prices plunged following the announcement of the ceasefire earlier in the week, but the fragile status of the truce and fact that very few ships have passed through the Strait of Hormuz in the meantime have seen prices creep back up since. Our …
We are hosting a drop-in on Monday 13th April at 13:30 BST / 14:30 CEST to discuss the election results. Sign up here . Hungary at a political turning point Hungarians head to the polls on Sunday to vote in parliamentary elections that could lead to the …
A mixed bag on the inflation front Several countries in Asia have published March inflation data over the past week or so. (See Chart 1.) Inflation fell sharply in Indonesia as base effects turned more favourable. Subsidies have also helped blunt the …
Soaring memory chip prices are boosting the value of China’s semiconductor and downstream electronics exports. With growing AI-related chip demand likely to continue to outstrip supply, prices look set to rise further in the near term, providing a …
The Bank of Korea kept its policy rate on hold today at 2.50%, and hinted that it would be in no rush to adjust monetary policy settings anytime soon as it continues to monitor the impact of the crisis in the Middle East. We no longer expect the central …
All of our coverage on the Middle East conflict can be found here . Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Himino noted today that a prolonged conflict in the Middle East would constitute a dilemma for the Bank as it would weigh on growth while accelerating …
Inflation pickup likely to be short-lived The Iran War has ended three years of factory-gate deflation in China and pushed CPI inflation to its highest level since early 2023 (after adjusting for Lunar New Year distortions). The big picture though is that …
Lithium a bright spot for Australian mining Even though petrol prices climbed to a record high in the wake of the Iran War at the end of March, Australia’s car registrations edged up by 1.3% m/m in seasonally-adjusted terms last month. More importantly …
The conflict in Iran has distorted the spread between Brent and WTI crude oil prices. But if the recently agreed ceasefire holds and oil starts flowing more freely through the Strait of Hormuz, we would expect the Brent-WTI spread to fall back to $4pb …
9th April 2026
Equities staged a historic rally yesterday and have generally held on to those gains today, even as moves in other markets have partly unwound. A lot of optimism now looks priced in ahead of the upcoming earnings season – but justifiably, we feel. The big …
First-quarter consumption growth set to slow to below 1% annualised The slightly softer-than-expected 0.10% m/m rise in real consumption in February, together with the downward revision to January’s estimate to show real spending unchanged, puts …
Jump in inflation points to hold at Banxico’s May meeting The sharp rise in Mexican inflation to 4.6% y/y in March took inflation further above Banxico’s target and means that interest rates are likely to be left unchanged at 6.75% at next month’s meeting …
No more rate cuts for some time Despite the US-Iran ceasefire and the Polish government’s interventions to curb fuel price rises, today’s decision by the MPC to leave the policy rate on hold at 3.75% is likely to be followed by an extended pause rather …
A tax on shipping through the Strait of Hormuz would be unlikely to have major near-term implications for global energy markets, trade or wider economic activity. But depending on how it is structured, it could formalise de-facto control over a critical …
We are hosting a drop-in on Monday 13th April at 13:30 BST / 14:30 CEST to discuss the election results. Sign up here . The opposition Tisza party heads into Hungary’s election this weekend as the favourite but may still fall short of the two-thirds …
The US-Iran ceasefire announced this week looks very fragile – not least over the question of whether Lebanon is included in the ceasefire – and there are big hurdles to reaching an enduring end to the war. Compromise will be required. Still, with Trump …
Clients can join our commercial real estate economists for a special online briefing on Wednesday 15th April at 10:00 ET / 15:00 BST to ask questions and hear their views on the outlook for the sector. Register here . The effects of the Iran war will …
German industry weak even before Iran conflict Data released today underline that Germany’s manufacturing sector was subdued even before the Iran conflict. We expect it to remain weak this year, though it is not likely to suffer anything like the big …
Economic fallout from Iran war taking a heavier toll on the housing market After a steady start to the year for the housing market, March’s RICS housing market survey suggests that the rise in mortgage rates since the start of the Iran war is continuing …
Oil price spike dominates discussion The minutes of the Fed’s mid-March meeting suggest that the spike in oil prices led to more concern about the upside risks to inflation than the downside risks to the labour market, with “some” participants judging …
8th April 2026
What does Tisza’s landslide victory in the weekend’s election mean for Hungary’s reform and economic outlook, and for its relations with the EU and the wider world? Our Emerging Markets team hosted this day-after dive into the election results and their …
This UK Housing Market Scenarios Chart Pack builds on the analysis and scenario forecasts published in the Global Property Outlook (see here ) to provide more detail on how the Iran War could influence the UK housing and rental markets. If the ceasefire …
We expect Hungary’s budget deficit to widen towards 5.5% of GDP this year on account of pre-election stimulus, continued soft GDP growth and higher debt interest costs. Regardless of the election outcome, the deficit is likely to remain relatively large. …
The Republican-held Congress is likely to use its sole budget reconciliation for this fiscal year to pass a narrow bill to fund Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) and top up the Pentagon’s funding to account for the Iran war. Additional fiscal …
Iran war impact ripples through the housing market As the timeliest housing activity data we get, the drop in home purchase mortgage applications throughout March is the first clear evidence of homebuyers pulling back in response to higher borrowing costs …
Construction activity holds up in March but more softness to come The headline CIPS construction PMI saw a surprising tick higher in March given the war in Iran throughout the month. The index rose to 45.6 from 44.5 in February and therefore remained well …
There are significant hurdles to overcome before the ceasefire agreement between the US, Israel and Iran can translate into a lasting end to the war. But if it were to hold, it would move outcomes closer to those envisaged in our “baseline” forecast. In …
There’s been a strong positive reaction to news of a two-week ceasefire between the US, Iran and Israel, but what does this mean for the economic and market outlook, and how far can conditions recover given still-widespread uncertainties? Our economist …
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Higher mortgage rates dampen house price growth The fall in the Halifax measure of house prices in March chimes with the renewed drop in buyer sentiment in February’s RICS …
If the ceasefire does mark the “beginning of the end” of the war, then the conflict will have had surprisingly little effect on risk premia in US markets. But that doesn’t mean, in our view, that they are bound to stay low forever. At the time of writing, …
Reserve Bank of India holds rates, in now rush to act The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) kept the repo rate unchanged at 5.25%, signalling that it is comfortable remaining in “wait and see” mode as it monitors developments in the Middle East. The decision …
While the Reserve Bank of New Zealand discussed a pre-emptive rate hike at its meeting today, the Monetary Policy Committee signalled that the drag on economic activity from higher energy prices will keep spare capacity elevated for longer. Accordingly, …
Significant spare capacity will keep RBNZ on sidelines for now The Reserve Bank of New Zealand sounded ambivalent about the influence of the energy shock when it left interest rates unchanged today and we’re sticking to our forecast that the Bank will …
