Plenty of rent gains left in top southern office markets

The office sector may be turning a corner, but there remain big differences in metro performance. Southern metros look set to dominate the winners, with Austin, Miami and Dallas coming out on top for office employment and demand prospects. Houston takes Austin’s place once supply is also factored in, while NYC has snuck its way into fourth in our rental growth rankings for the next five years. Elsewhere, the Northwestern metros and the other major markets are unlikely to see much rental growth through the end of the decade. Importantly, as NOI declines feed through to capital values, we expect a net rise in values over 2026-30 in just four metros – Miami, Atlanta, NYC and Denver.