MNB to stay on hold as above-target inflation persists The Hungarian central bank (MNB) left its base rate on hold today, at 6.50%, and despite downside risks to activity from US tariffs, we think its easing cycle will remain on pause throughout 2025. …
29th April 2025
President Donald Trump’s first 100 days back in office has been characterised by radical changes to trade policy, immigration and the Federal government, all implemented by an unprecedented use of executive power. In the second 100 days, we expect the …
The UK economy is relatively well insulated from the rise in US tariffs, and property even more so. Indeed, while the overall direct impact is likely to be small, some commercial sectors may even see a benefit, such as student accommodation. That said, …
India’s economy is emerging from its recent soft patch. Headline CPI inflation should remain close to the RBI’s 4% target over the coming months, enabling the central bank to continue easing monetary policy. We’re expecting a further 50bp of cuts to the …
This publication has been updated with additional analysis ESI points to small hit from tariffs in April The ESI for April point to a small hit to the euro-zone from US tariffs in April and suggest that growth remained quite weak. With the drag from …
Sentiment holds up well in the face of Trump’s tariffs The European Commission's Economic Sentiment Indicators for Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) provide a tentative sign that the impact of US tariffs on the region has been fairly contained so far. The …
Parts of South East Asia, notably Vietnam, as well as India are well placed to immediately gain market share in response to penal US tariffs on Chinese imports. But uncertainty over the future tariff landscape will deter investment in additional capacity …
Spain’s economy to stay strong this year, but Sweden’s may struggle Spain’s rapid economic growth (+0.6% q/q in Q1) is likely to continue for some time yet, despite trade uncertainty. While consumption and government spending were weaker than expected in …
Although the Liberals have just missed out on a majority, Prime Minister Mark Carney should still be able to implement his fiscal plans with support from the NDP or Bloc Québécois. If anything, the need to grant concessions to those parties means fiscal …
Financial markets have staged a robust recovery over the past couple of weeks, even if they are for the most part not quite back to square one after the post-2 nd April turmoil. Given the ongoing uncertainty around US trade policy and the economic outlook …
28th April 2025
Provided it was limited just to Kashmir, a period of fighting between Pakistani and Indian forces would have a small impact on the overall economy of either country. The closing of the only land trade route is also largely symbolic – bilateral trade was …
US import tariffs have largely focused on China. For some EMs (such as India and South East Asia), this creates near-term opportunities to take US market share from China. But there will be offsetting effects if confidence has been hit. And EM commodity …
The NCREIF Property Index (NPI) recorded a third consecutive quarter of positive total returns in Q1 2025, driven primarily by income. Although capital value growth turned positive, questions remain over whether appraisal-based valuations fully reflect …
The recent reduction in equity market volatility has reversed most of the tightening in our market-based narrow Financial Conditions Indices for advanced economies. Our broad FCIs, which also incorporate information on interest rates and lending criteria …
Mexico is well positioned to benefit if punitive US tariffs on China prompt a shift in US import demand towards other EMs, as seems likely, although its ability to ramp up exports in the near term will be constrained by some capacity constraints, …
The IMF’s decision to pause Colombia’s access to its flexible credit line is not particularly concerning given the country’s robust external position, but the Fund has shone the spotlight back onto the country’s fiscal problems. With general elections …
Exactly a century ago today, Winston Churchill announced the return of sterling to the gold standard at its pre-war value of $4.86 per pound. It was a controversial, and ultimately unsuccessful, attempt to restore confidence in sterling after the First …
Saudi Arabia’s economy enjoyed a relatively strong start to the year underpinned by its non-oil sector. But while GDP growth will accelerate this year as oil output rises, the coinciding slip in oil prices is already resulting in a firmer turn to fiscal …
Our base case is that faster growth in household incomes will result in the recent pick-up in rent inflation broadening from major cities to the rest of the country. However, there’s a risk that population outflows from rural areas will result in rents …
Financial markets have continued to stabilise and the dollar has finally rebounded a little over the past few days. More than anything, that appears to reflect relief after the Trump administration has suggested it may dial back tariffs a bit further and …
25th April 2025
Soybeans are once again caught in the firing line of the US-China trade war. There is plenty of uncertainty around the exact ramifications for the shape of global trading patterns and prices, but the key lesson from 2018 is that the risks to US soybeans …
Both major political parties unveiled their election platforms over the past week, featuring their fiscal projections for the next four years. As expected, the Liberals have made little attempt to balance the budget. Incumbent Prime Minister Mark Carney …
SA 2025 budget closer, but fiscal slippage coming South Africa’s 2025 budget took a vital step forward after the Treasury scrapped its proposed VAT hike this week. With the DA also recommitting to the GNU, this will provide some of the certainty that the …
The US steps up its peace deal efforts The US has been pushing harder over the past week to achieve a peace deal that Russia is willing to accept. But the more concessions that are offered to Putin, the less willing Ukraine is likely to be on board with a …
The negative reaction in financial markets undoubtedly played a key role in making President Trump reconsider his eye-wateringly high tariffs on China and his ill-advised plans to fire Fed Chair Jerome Powell. But we suspect the dawning reality of what …
Mexico: growth worries points to another 50bp cut Hard and soft activity data out of Mexico over the past few weeks paint a picture of a struggling economy. Admittedly, the IGAE index rebounded by 1.0% m/m in February. But that came after contractions in …
The sharp fall in the dollar over the past three months can for the most part be explained by a rapid reassessment of the outlook for the US economy and financial markets, rather than an imminent threat to the dollar’s dominant status in global finance. …
Slump in sentiment not yet weighing heavily on spending The moderate decline in retail sales volumes in February was probably due to the unseasonably severe winter weather rather than the recent slump in sentiment, with the latest flash estimate implying …
Note: we will be discussing the future of OPEC+, oil prices, and the Gulf in an online briefing on Wednesday 7 th May at 1pm BST. You can register here . Oil relief rally hits wall of supply uncertainty The various tariff-related row-backs and carveouts …
Inflation rises but end of tightening cycle is near The further rise in Brazil’s headline inflation rate to 5.5% y/y in the first half of April means that Copom will press ahead with a 50bp hike in the Selic rate at its next meeting in early May. But …
Business surveys for April suggest that US tariffs have not done much damage in the euro-zone so far. The euro-zone Composite PMI edged down rather than collapsing and the Ifo Business Climate Index for Germany, which is the most vulnerable of the larger …
Another rollercoaster week in Trumpland wound down with markets buoyant on reports of more White House softening in its approach to tariffs and China taking steps to ease restrictions on some US imports. But are things really looking up? And, if so, why …
The fall in market interest rate expectations since ‘Liberation Day’ is striking. On 31 st March, investors were pricing in just two more 25 basis points (bps) interest rate cuts this year from 4.50% now to 4.00%. Now they are fully pricing in three more …
China continues to rebuff Trump Earlier this week, President Trump gave the clearest indication yet that he is keen to row back tariffs on China, which he said would “come down substantially”. But, for now at least, the White House has ruled out doing so …
CBR drops tightening bias, rate cuts likely in Q3 The Central Bank of Russia (CBR) left its policy rate on hold at 21.00% again today and dropped the language in its statement that further interest rate hikes are possible. With inflation nearing a peak, …
The Q1 RICS US commercial property survey reported steady investment sentiment. That is in line with our belief that the market is headed for an upturn, although the impact of new tariffs and the limited fall in interest rates mean that recovery will be …
The Q1 RICS survey showed little change from the previous quarter, with surveyors pointing to subdued levels of occupier demand and elevated availability. That points to a slowdown in rental growth this year, with only alternatives such as data centres …
Slump in Korean construction not over GDP figures published this week show that Korea’s economy remains in deep trouble. GDP contracted by 0.2% in q/q terms in the first three months of the year and was 0.3% smaller than a year ago. The outturn was much …
Trump policies may be levering India towards US US Vice President JD Vance hailed “very good progress” on a potential trade deal between Washington and New Delhi during his visit to India this week, and prospects do appear to have brightened with the two …
Leadership signals policy flexibility in the face of trade uncertainty The Politburo has just concluded its April meeting which, as usual, focused on economic affairs. The communique signalled that monetary policy easing is still on its way and that …
We suspect the US dollar will recover some lost ground over the coming months as its usual relationship with rate differentials reasserts itself. Seemingly dovish comments from Fed speakers, including Fed Governor Christopher Waller and Cleveland Fed …
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. March may be as bright as it gets as confidence slides March’s rise in retail sales volumes meant sales rebounded by an impressive 1.6% q/q in Q1, rounding off a …
Case for aggressive easing remains weak Flash PMI data released this Wednesday suggest that ongoing global tensions are doing little to dent business confidence in Australia. Although firms reported a second successive decline in new export business as a …
Underlying inflation set to surpass 3% Inflation excluding fresh food and energy picked up from 2.6% to 2.9% in March. And the big jump in inflation in Tokyo in April at first glance would suggest that the Bank of Japan is starting to fall behind the …
Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Apr. 2025) …
24th April 2025
The US was the world’s largest LNG exporter in 2024 and demand for US LNG is set to increase markedly in the next few years. Demand for LNG will grow faster than US production in the near term, tightening the US domestic market. We think that this will …
Our View: The economies of Central and Eastern Europe are generally less exposed to higher US tariffs than other EM regions, but we have still become more concerned about the hit to growth this year from US trade protectionism. Alongside signs that wage …
Egypt’s draft budget points to more tightening Egypt’s Finance Minister Ahmed Kouchouk presented the draft FY2025/26 Budget to parliament this week and reaffirmed the turn to austerity, including efforts to raise taxation and cut subsidies, all of which …
You can’t buy what you can’t afford The fall in existing home sales in March serves as a good reminder that more home listings alone are not enough to revive the market. Affordability also has to meaningfully improve which, based on our view that …
The latest data suggest that the world economy got off to a weak start in 2025 even before most tariffs were implemented. While tariff front-running provided a boost to global industrial activity and exports to the US in Q1, this should soon fade. …
