Korea’s 2027 budget proposal released today suggests that the government will save more than two-thirds of a tax windfall from the boom in the country’s AI-related exports. That will provide some comfort for officials at the Bank of Korea and so we are …
1st September 2026
Easing cycle continues, but a pause incoming The Bank of Israel (BoI) opted to deliver another 25bp interest rate cut, to 3.25% at today’s meeting, and with inflation likely to increase over the coming months we think it will opt for a temporary pause in …
Growth slows, September rate cut still the base case The slowdown in Q2 GDP growth in Brazil, to 0.5% q/q, is likely to be followed by a softer second half of the year and we think the door remains open for another 25bp interest rate cut later this month …
Weakness in retail spending is likely to hold back the recovery in Dublin prime high street rents in the near term, but conditions appear ripe for a revival. Given the comparatively high level of prime retail yields relative to the euro-zone, better …
China Shock 2.0 …
11th August 2026
Rise in headline inflation entirely due to energy effects August’s energy-led rise in euro-zone HICP inflation might bolster the case for a rate hike next week, but the ECB should be reassured by the absence of indirect and second-round effects. The …
Net lending jumps in July, but investment and development will still be slow After June posted the weakest rate of net lending since March 2024, July saw a return to the pace of net lending witnessed in the first five months of the year, reaching £1.53bn. …
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Further signs of consumer resilience, but weaker spending on the way July’s money and lending figures show that the near-term outlook for the housing market is weak, households …
The surge in planned spending in the FY2027 budget largely reflects the government’s desire to reduce reliance on supplementary budgets but it’s still unclear how that will affect the overall fiscal stance. According to press reports, Japan’s ministries …
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. House price growth to remain subdued for the rest of this year The small rise in the Nationwide measure of house prices in August underlines the continued drag on buyers’ …
The recent increase in JGB yields has been driven by global rather than domestic factors and there are no signs that it is creating financial stress. The BoJ will accelerate its tightening cycle to reduce lingering concerns about inflation risks, but it …
The recent overhaul of China’s housing presales system belatedly addresses some of the vulnerabilities that contributed to the country’s property downturn. But the changes only apply to new projects, meaning the near-term impact on housing supply and …
Australian house prices continued to fall at a rapid pace in August. While we expect the pace of monthly declines to ease more noticeably in the months ahead, risks to this view have increased. If the RBA tightens policy further, the housing downturn …
Turkey’s GDP expanded by 1.1% q/q in Q2, its fastest pace in a year, but beneath the surface there were clear signs of softening domestic demand, with household consumption and imports both contracting last quarter. This should help to sustain the …
31st August 2026
We don’t expect lasting relief for short-dated Treasuries, although we expect those in Europe to fare better over time. Meanwhile, our base case remains that the equity market has further to rise, despite its seemingly stretched valuation. Long end takes …
A partial recovery from July’s slump This report was first published on Monday 31 st August, covering the official PMIs. We added commentary on the RatingDog manufacturing PMI on Tuesday 1 st September and the RatingDog services and composite PMIs on …
Fed Chair Warsh’s much-anticipated keynote speech at the Jackson Hole symposium has allayed some of the confusion caused by his post-FOMC remarks a month ago. More clarity around his approach to both the near-term policy outlook and the Fed’s overall …
28th August 2026
Kevin Warsh was uncharacteristically loose lipped in his keynote address at the 2026 Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium , giving market participants and Fed watchers a much clearer sense of his assessment of where we currently sit relative to the …
Growth booming… The second-quarter GDP data released this week were undeniably positive. Not only did the economy rebound by 3.3% annualised last quarter, but the small contraction in Q1 was revised away, meaning the economy was never in a “technical …
From renewed turbulence in bond markets to fresh signs of weakness in China and the continuing US-Iran stand-off, it’s been a busy few months. With the summer break over, we’re bringing together a panel of senior economists in two sessions on Tuesday, 8th …
Nigeria needs to ensure naira stays competitive The Nigerian naira has posted strong gains helped by the backdrop of high energy prices, but we doubt this strength will continue. The naira has appreciated by 8% against the dollar since the start of the …
Warsh claws back his credibility with hawkish remarks Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium delivered a far clearer – and hawkish – message than his last press conference appearance, with Warsh arguing that the recent softer …
Mexico: Lessons from US-Canada tariff spat Trade tensions in North America have escalated over the past week, with the US imposing new Section 338 tariffs on Canada after a breakdown in bilateral talks –which Canda responded to with its own tariffs on US …
A key development this week is that more oil has been traversing the Strait of Hormuz, easing immediate concerns about the availability of global crude oil supply and contributing to the fall in Brent crude, from $94pb at the end of last week to $89pb …
Q2 even better than it looks, but momentum won’t be sustained The breakdown of second-quarter GDP growth was even better than the solid 3.3% annualised gain might suggest, although the preliminary estimate of unchanged GDP in July and the headwinds from …
This week’s account of the ECB’s July meeting, further rise in wholesale natural gas prices and positive economic data have probably sealed the deal on a September interest rate hike. Christine Lagarde had already told us at last month’s press …
For those who have been on holiday and want to catch up on UK developments, a good place to start is our new The Burnham Economy key themes page. This houses our recent analysis on the possible size and shape of the Budget on 28 th October (it is only 61 …
BNM on hold despite strong growth The past week in Asia has been dominated by central bank meetings in Thailand , the Philippines and Korea (see below). Next up is a central bank meeting in Malaysia, where another hold is very likely. The economy is …
If the US gains access to greater reserves of heavy-sour crude from Venezuela, it could reduce the US’s reliance on crude oil imports from Canada and Mexico. However, any deal would need to involve serious security and legal guarantees to entice US oil …
Border talks mark progress ahead of BRICS summit India’s geopolitical relations have returned to the headlines throughout this week. On Monday, External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar met Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow, with both sides …
Economy remains resilient, indirect effects on inflation limited August’s euro-zone Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) suggests that the economy has continued to expand despite higher energy prices and extreme summer heat. And the selling price …
Limited appetite for a stronger renminbi The renminbi has been strengthening steadily against the dollar for more than a year. For much of that period, the PBOC appeared comfortable with the currency’s trajectory, allowing its daily fix to follow the spot …
Turkey: window for rate cuts opens Turkey’s central bank (CBRT) announced on Sunday that it is restarting the one-week repo auctions that it suspended on 1 st March. This move has reduced the cost of liquidity provision from 40% (via the overnight lending …
Government is muddying the fiscal waters According to press reports, the spending requests by ministries for the FY2027 budget due early next year will surpass ¥130tn, up from ¥122.3tn in the FY2026 budget. That means that overall spending in the …
The case for holding rests on a knife’s edge The minutes of the RBA’s August meeting made it clear that the incoming data will need to cooperate if the Bank is to avoid hiking again. Indeed, “several members judged that it was quite possible that the …
Our China Activity Proxy suggests that growth slowed sharply in July, reflecting disruptions to construction and industry from typhoons as well as the ongoing drag from weak fiscal spending. But exports remained strong, supported by robust demand for …
Can another set of blow-out AI earnings reignite the rally that has powered equities for so long but recently seems to have run out of puff? Chief Markets Economist Jonas Goltermann joins The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics to discuss the latest …
27th August 2026
The world economy has been resilient in the face of high energy prices. Outside the Gulf, global GDP growth looks to have been stable in Q2, as government support, saving buffers, and the AI boom have offset much of the drag from the energy shock. …
Prior counter tariffs suggest passthrough to consumer prices will be modest Bank will flag weaker business sentiment from trade uncertainty as the main growth risk Further escalation may prompt consideration of cutting into accommodative territory The …
The Canadian government has significantly shifted tack over recent years and now wants to double down on the country’s status as a net energy exporter by supporting large-scale oil and LNG infrastructure projects. On paper, these efforts could boost oil …
There is scope for some of the weakness in July’s employment report to reverse, but the administration’s decision to revoke Temporary Protected Status (TPS) for roughly 350,000 people in late July is likely to be a drag. We are therefore forecasting …
Based on the government’s current assessment of public land that is deemed vacant, we think there is only enough space to build up to 19,000 council homes in total. This would do little to meet Burnham’s ambitions. As a result, the government will …
China and US aim to woo Egypt with AI Egypt is in the midst of an AI infrastructure battle between China and the US. Its decision could have ramifications for the country’s broader ties with the two superpowers and provide a framework for other EMs facing …
Regardless of whether the Chancellor, John Healey, opts for a small, medium or big Budget, economic growth is unlikely to be much stronger over the next few years. Our hunch is that a medium-sized Budget is the most likely as Healey attempts to fund some …
BSP’s tightening cycle probably now over The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) hiked interest rates today, by 25bp to 5.00% and, while a lot will depend on events in the Middle East, we think this will mark the end of the tightening as policymakers shift …
The Bank of Korea raised rates by a further 25bps (to 3.00%) today but stressed that the move was pre-emptive, while its latest dot plot pointed to only a gradual tightening cycle from here. We expect one further rate hike this cycle, with the final hike …
Although S&P 500 earnings have become even more dominated by a handful of companies, that hasn’t consistently translated into larger companies outperforming smaller ones lately. We expect big-tech companies to regain the lead, though, at least until the …
Robust consumer spending will keep RBA on high alert The strong pickup in household spending in July will likely reinforce the RBA’s hawkish bias, but our base case continues to be that it won’t go so far as to hike rates again. The ABS’ Household …
