This checklist helps clients track the policies and forecasts announced in the Chancellor’s Autumn Budget at 12:30pm (GMT) on Wednesday 26 th November. Read our Previews here . We will send a Rapid Response after the speech, host an online briefing at 3pm …
24th November 2025
While most agriculturals prices – and food price inflation – will decline alongside crude oil prices next year, structural supply headwinds will keep the prices of edible oils and beef elevated. For context, most agriculturals prices have fallen this …
German economy still weak The fall in the German Ifo in November chimes with the drop in the Composite PMI and suggests that the German economy remains weak, with the fiscal stimulus is not yet having a meaningful impact. We still expect growth to pick up …
Equity markets remain under pressure even after positive news on both AI demand and the US labour market. A renewed sell-off in Japan’s bond market isn’t helping matters. Meanwhile, we think the UK will avoid another budget (and Gilt market) mess, but the …
Fed officials split on need for a Dec rate cut The minutes of the October FOMC meeting were unusually blunt, warning that “many” Fed participants thought it would be appropriate to leave rates unchanged for the rest of the year, whereas only “several” …
21st November 2025
US continues to pick on South Africa & Nigeria The US’s boycott of South Africa’s G20 presidency and escalating threats of sanctions towards Nigeria will worry their respective governments, but both economies are holding up well with domestic factors …
A busy week of data releases has left us more confident in our view that the Bank of Canada will feel the need to cut its policy rate below neutral at some point next year to support the economy – not least given that the federal budget, which survived …
Our base case is that the bubble in AI hasn’t burst: we still think it has another year or so to inflate. But given Thursday’s pullback in equities, it isn’t out of the question that it is starting to burst now. Yesterday’s slump in the S&P 500 didn’t …
Chile: Kast heads into run-off with momentum Left-wing candidate Jeannette Jara and right-wing candidate José Antonio Kast received the highest share of votes in Chile’s presidential election last Sunday (27% and 24%, respectively). They go to a run-off …
Is the bubble bursting? Despite a big earnings beat from Nvidia, concerns about overheated AI valuations are mounting. Jonas Goltermann weighs the risks that the equities rally is fading. We also look at what to expect from Rachel Reeves’ Budget after an …
Details have emerged this week of a new US-Russian led framework to end the war in Ukraine. A draft copy of the 28-point peace plan was published by the Financial Times , and the terms of the agreement make significant concessions to Russia. This includes …
Soft demand supports argument for further easing in 2026 The drop in retail sales in September means growth in household consumption slowed to around 1.0% annualised in the third quarter, from 4.5% in the second. With the advance estimate for October …
The Central Bank of Egypt’s (CBE’s) monetary easing cycle has been stop-start. But with interest rates very high and disinflation set to resume in Q1 2026, it won’t be too long before policy loosening comes back onto the agenda. We expect more easing than …
It’s becoming increasingly clear that the two main guardians of the UK economy will play conflicting parts in the policy pantomime this festive period. Reeves plays Scrooge We all know the Chancellor, Rachel Reeves, will tighten fiscal policy in the …
One minute sanctions, the next a peace deal? As tighter US sanctions on Lukoil and Rosneft – two oil producers that account for around 50% of Russia’s crude exports – come into effect (see here ), it appears that progress is being made on ending the war …
Consumer caution is understandable Data published this morning showed that wage growth continues to slow. Growth in negotiated wages – i.e. pay determined by collective bargaining agreements – dropped from 4.0% y/y in Q2 to just 1.9% in Q3, which was its …
An average annual council tax surcharge in the Budget on 26 th November of possibly around £2,000 for owners of the most expensive homes may be only a modest drag on activity and prices at the top end of the housing market. But London and the South East …
Bank Indonesia independence fears flare up again Indonesia’s central bank left interest rates on hold at 4.75% on Wednesday but the more interesting development was the invitation extended to the finance minister to attend monetary policy meetings. Whilst …
Trade deficit to narrow, rupee to weaken gradually We learnt this week that India’s trade deficit widened to the largest on record in October. This has revived worries about the rupee, which is hovering near all-time lows against the US dollar. But there …
We’re hosting a 20-minute online briefing at 3pm GMT on Wednesday 26 th November responding to the Chancellor’s Budget and assessing what it means for the economy, housing and financial markets. (Register here .) This page has been updated with additional …
Mortgage subsidies would offer limited relief Policymakers are mulling a new property stimulus package, according to Bloomberg. Measures being considered include mortgage interest subsidies for new homebuyers nationwide, lower transaction fees and higher …
Substantial pick-up in growth remains elusive November’s flash PMI for the euro-zone was little changed from the reading in October and suggests that the economy has continued to expand only slowly in the fourth quarter, while inflationary pressures …
We think gilt yields are more likely to fall than rise in the immediate aftermath of the Budget on 26 th November. But the chances of an adverse gilt market reaction remain high, and the Budget poses an upside risk to our forecast for the 10-year gilt …
If the AI stock market boom turned to bust, we suspect the correction would be somewhat smaller but significantly shorter-lived than the one that took place after the dotcom bubble burst. Admittedly, we don’t think the AI bubble has burst: our forecast is …
We’re hosting a 20-minute online briefing at 3.00pm GMT on 26 th November responding to the Chancellor’s Budget and assessing what it means for the economy, housing and financial markets. (Register here .) This page has been updated with additional …
The large supplementary budget announced today includes generous energy subsidies that will push inflation below 2% early next year. However, by boosting underlying price pressures, looser fiscal policy bolsters the case for tighter monetary policy. The …
RBA will cut again in late-2026 The minutes of the RBA’s November meeting did little to shed light on the outlook for interest rates. As it has done recently, the Board noted that capacity pressures remain uncertain, as does the extent of monetary …
Looser fiscal policy lifting rate expectations As we had warned last week, the dispute between China and Japan escalated further this week as China warned its citizens not to travel to or study in Japan and banned seafood imports from Japan. However, that …
Singapore’s economy set to cool but MAS to remain on hold The final estimate of Singapore’s Q3 GDP showed that growth was much stronger than previously anticipated. Although we doubt this strength will last very long, growth is set to soften rather than …
Underlying inflation will remain above 2% for foreseeable future With inflation excluding fresh food and energy remaining above 3%, it won’t be long before the Bank of Japan resumes its tightening cycle. The 3.0% annual rise in consumer prices excluding …
20th November 2025
US Commercial Property Chart Pack Q4 2025 …
Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MbS) visited the US this week and, while he didn’t get all that he was hoping to secure from the trip, the US is probably doing just enough to pull the Kingdom back from China’s sphere of influence. In the …
The slowdown in the annual growth rate of our proprietary measure of China's so-called New Three export volumes in October suggests that China’s green technology exporters were not immune to broader headwinds affecting Chinese trade. The renminbi’s …
Asian exports are now growing at their fastest rate in more than three years, and should continue to expand at a decent pace over the coming year. While US tariffs have hit China’s (and more recently India’s) shipments to the US hard, the trade war …
Modestly cheaper borrowing costs boost sales further Lower borrowing costs were behind the further small pick-up in existing home sales last month. As we expect less Fed policy easing next year than markets are currently pricing in, however, mortgage …
The South African Reserve Bank resumed its easing cycle today with a 25bp cut (to 6.75%) and the dovish accompanying communication increases our confidence that the SARB will cut the repo by another 100bp of cuts next year, which is well below the …
We expect the Middle East and North Africa to record very fast GDP growth rates in 2026-27 compared to the standards of the past few decades. The Gulf states will be bolstered by rising oil output, although low oil prices mean that fiscal policy will …
Labour market weak, but stable The better-than-expected 119,000 increase in non-farm payrolls in September should have further reduced the odds that the Fed will cut interest rates again next month. Admittedly, revisions subtracted a cumulative 33,000 …
As it has dropped plans for “Frexit”, scaled back its tax and spending promises and made overtures to business, the RN is worrying investors less than it did in the past. However, it is no more likely than other parties to put France’s public finances on …
Aggregate Latin American growth slowed in Q3 and we doubt that there will be a pronounced pick-up in the coming quarters. And our growth GDP forecasts for the next couple of years lie below the consensus. The inflation picture has improved, with headline …
Unconfirmed media reports suggest that the US and Russia are drafting a peace plan to end the war in Ukraine, seemingly on terms favourable to Russia. Were this to materialise, a lack of sufficient security guarantees might hold back Ukraine’s …
Recent earnings reports give cause for optimism about the health of the AI equity market rally, in our view, and we think it has further to run. Much of investors’ hopes for the faltering AI rally had seemingly been pinned on Nvidia’s profit result this …
“Many” Fed participants all-but rule out a December rate cut The minutes of the FOMC meeting that concluded on 29 th October were unusually blunt, warning that “many” participants thought it would be appropriate to leave rates unchanged for the rest of …
19th November 2025
S&P 500 ‘cyclical’ stocks have underperformed ‘defensive’ ones markedly over the past couple of weeks, even after stripping away the influence of tech firms. We think there is scope for that to reverse even without renewed enthusiasm over AI. One feature …
Our View: The Q3 GDP data out of Emerging Europe confirmed a growing divergence in the region, with Poland a clear outperformer, while other parts of CEE struggled and momentum in Russia continued to wane. We think that this divergence will continue over …
Lower net domestic migration has substituted in for the earlier supply glut as the main factor putting downward pressure on house prices in the Sun Belt’s previously red-hot metros. We doubt the region’s recent underperformance will last, however, as …
This Focus introduces a new tool in our oil analysis toolkit that allows us to examine and highlight how oil traders’ market positioning changes over time. This new tool will be particularly useful during bouts of geopolitical uncertainty and risks to …
