The latest data suggest that the global economy has maintained its momentum at the start of Q4. Global trade and industry have held up well despite US tariffs, although there were signs of cracks in China’s export resilience in October. In advanced economies, weak consumer confidence supports our subdued outlook for consumption. And the continued slowdown in employment growth is in-line with our forecasts for wage growth to slow in most DMs. That said, we think the AI-related investment boom in the US will cause it outperform other DMs in the coming quarters. The downward trend in inflation in many economies should pave the way for more interest rate cuts next year. But we think the recent stickiness in US inflation will persist, meaning the Fed will only cut rates by a further 50 bp.
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