The sharp rise in Mexico’s goods exports in October underscores that the country’s external sector has continued to fare well in the face of US tariffs. That has been helped by a surge in sales of products feeding into the US’s AI investment boom, which …
27th November 2025
China Chart Pack (Nov. 25) …
Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Nov. 2025) …
While Spain’s fast rate of employment growth has attracted attention recently, the quality of jobs has also improved. In particular, the information and communication sector has seen significant increases in employment. This has supported household income …
After all the kite-flying, the doom-laden briefings and the policy U-turns, the UK Budget landed well with the markets. But did gilts rally simply because the news wasn’t worse, or has the government genuinely won over the bond vigilantes? And for all …
Dubai’s real estate debt not the concern it once was The current boom in Dubai’s residential real estate sector has improved developers’ confidence and led to more borrowing to finance projects. This bears similarities to Dubai’s debt crisis in 2009 …
Generationally-low inflation and headwinds to growth reopen door to further easing We doubt that rupee weakness will constrain the RBI We are forecasting a 25bp cut to repo rate to 5.25% next week; 5.00% in early 2026 The drop in inflation to a …
Growth resilient, price pressures linger The European Commission’s Economic Sentiment Indicators for Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) generally rose in November and point to solid regional growth in Q4. That said, firms’ selling price expectations suggest …
Stable, moderate growth November’s EC Economic Sentiment Indicator is consistent with GDP growth of around 0.2% q/q while the selling-price components suggest that services price pressure remain above pre-pandemic norms. The increase in the headline EC …
Korea’s central bank today left interest rates unchanged at 2.5%, and the hawkish comments from Governor Rhee at the press conference appear to rule out any chance of a rate cut in the next few months. But with growth likely to weaken and inflation set to …
We think the Japanese yen and the Korean won will rally against the US dollar next year regardless of any FX intervention, although it would help. The recent weakness of the yen and the won has raised the prospect of a response from the authorities in …
Interest rates on hold, but BoK to resume easing next year The Bank of Korea left its policy rate unchanged today at 2.50%, and we expect rates to be left unchanged for a few months before the central bank resumes its easing cycle, most likely around the …
After months of speculation and an unprecedented leak of all the details an hour before the Chancellor’s speech, the financial markets have given the Budget the thumbs up and the Budget doesn’t significantly alter our economic forecasts. There’s still a …
26th November 2025
Fed officials still split on Dec rate cut The market-implied odds that the Fed will deliver another interest rate cut at the FOMC meeting in December surged to ~80% this week. The vote still appears to be going down to the wire but, assuming that Chair …
The Gilt market is breathing a sigh of relief after the much-anticipated UK budget announcement today delivered less bad news than feared and the Chancellor appears to have, so far, come out of a fraught fiscal process a bit stronger. While fiscal policy …
Our China Activity Proxy suggests that growth slowed last month on the back of weaker growth in services activity. And, despite October’s export slowdown, the industr ial sector remained resilient, suggesting that the recent slump in fixed investment …
AI boom continues to boost investment September’s durable goods orders suggest investment remain resilient, despite lingering tariff uncertainty, as the AI boom drives strong spending on tech goods. Durable goods orders rose by 0.5% m/m in September off …
BoG delivers another 350bp cut The Bank of Ghana kept up its jumbo rate cuts today, lowering its policy rate by another 350bp to 18.00%. The optimistic policy statement from the BoG suggests more large cuts are coming, increasing our confidence that at …
This is our initial take on the Budget based on the leaked details reported on the newswires ahead of the Chancellor’s speech and the initial market reaction. See here for our more detailed analysis we published later in the day that takes into account …
Against the backdrop of the US – the world’s second largest emitter – pulling out of the Paris Agreement at the start of this year, making significant progress at COP30 in Brazil was always going to be an uphill task for negotiators. The hosts were unable …
Fall in inflation strengthens the case for January cut The further decline in Brazilian inflation, to 4.5% y/y in the first half of November, combined with the recent weak activity data, mean that it’s looking increasingly likely that Copom will kick off …
While the S&P 500 has become increasingly concentrated in terms of earnings and market capitalisation, high valuations have not concentrated in the same way. Instead, there has been broad-based valuation gains across the index. That’s the opposite of what …
The RBNZ has signalled its easing cycle is over and that policy normalisation could be on the agenda as soon as mid-2027. However, it is assuming that spare capacity will diminish much more rapidly than is likely to be the case. Our base case is that the …
Property edged into fair value territory in Q3, extending recent improvements, despite real estate yields moving lower. This will help support investment ahead, though we think appraised cap rates still need to rise further to bring sustained improvement. …
Sweeping labour market reforms in India have been overshadowed by haphazard implementation and will raise compliance cost for firms in the near term. But once the dust settles, several new measures could bring economic benefits over the medium term by …
After a very strong run, India’s economy faces a more challenging few quarters in the face of punitive US tariffs. But hopes are growing again that these could be reduced. And in any case, domestic demand should hold up well, ensuring that India remains a …
In line with our long-held forecast, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand cut rates to 2.25% at its meeting today and signalled that its easing cycle has now come to an end. As the recovery gains traction, the Bank expects to start normalising policy again in …
RBNZ done easing, but rate hikes are a long while away The Reserve Bank of New Zealand indicated that it's cutting cycle is now at an end. However, with spare capacity to persist for a while to come, rate hikes won't be on the agenda until well into 2027. …
Upside risks rise further in Australia With inflationary pressures continuing to strengthen at the start of the quarter, there is little chance that rate cuts will be on the RBA’s agenda anytime soon. The ABS’ first ever complete monthly CPI …
Falling real yields have supported a broad rally in the US stock market today. But the larger gains yesterday owed little to rate expectations, highlighting that falling yields are not needed for strong equity performance. So, even though we expect real …
25th November 2025
We think the AI-investment boom is still in its relatively early stages and will eventually drive strong productivity gains as adoption of the technology rises. This keeps us optimistic on the growth outlook, despite White House immigration curbs limiting …
Higher gilt yields and taxes to weigh on recovery Overview – With the 10-year gilt yield now set to be higher for longer and the Budget likely to raise taxes on households, the outlook for commercial property has become a bit gloomier. We now expect total …
The incidence of sovereign debt distress has declined sharply across the EM world and is now back to pre-pandemic levels. But our EM Financial Risk Indicators suggest that several countries are still vulnerable to acute debt problems. We also remain …
Even if the Fed were to deliver less easing than the ~90bp currently priced into financial markets over the coming year, history suggests that wouldn’t prevent further strong gains from the US equity market. The improved sentiment in stock and bond …
A tentative improvement The 0.1% m/m rise in house prices in September matched August’s modest gain, and points to a tentative house price recovery from here. We are predicting that a pick-up in demand paired with nagging undersupply will support prices …
CBN holds as policymakers display caution The Central Bank of Nigeria’s decision to keep its policy rate on hold at 27.00% today came as a surprise, especially given the dovish story told throughout the statement. A stop-start monetary easing cycle from …
Slightly above-target gain in core PCE deflator The PPI components feeding into the PCE deflator were, on balance, slightly hotter than we had initially anticipated, leading us to estimate that core PCE prices rose by 0.25% m/m in September. The 0.1% m/m …
A softer end to the third quarter The slightly softer-than-expected retail sales data for September won’t be enough to spoil the third quarter, with our estimate of third-quarter GDP growth still 3.6% annualised. But, together with the likely weakness of …
Fears of an influx of imports from China to the euro-zone this year have not materialised. The volume of imports from China has risen but not at an exceptional pace, and both volumes and values remain below their peaks. Moreover, the value of imports of …
The muted, uneven recovery in European investment continued in Q3, with indicators suggesting this will persist in Q4. The outlook for 2026 looks brighter, with lower interest rates providing a key support. However, mismatches in pricing expectations are …
Asia Chart Pack (November 2025) …
Watch a recording of our 4th December online briefing about Russia-China relations here . Russia and China declared a “no limits” partnership in 2022, but the economic limits to the relationship have become increasingly clear. Chinese FDI in Russia …
The tighter labour market in Australia will continue to encourage large numbers of New Zealanders to move to Australia, holding back the recovery in the housing market and consumer spending. While lower population growth also reduces the economy’s supply …
Egypt’s devaluation and shift back towards macro orthodoxy 18 months ago have put the economy back on the path towards restoring macroeconomic stability. The situation is still very fragile – Egypt gets high risk scores on our proprietary EM Financial …
24th November 2025
BoI resumes easing cycle, but cautiously The decision by the Bank of Israel (BoI) to cut its policy rate by 25bp today, to 4.25%, was accompanied by communications which suggest that further monetary easing will be approached cautiously and will depend on …
Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack (Q4 2025) …
Inflation unchanged, but December cut still on the cards The Mexican inflation outturn of 3.6% y/y in the first half of November, coming alongside the contraction in GDP in Q3, means Banxico will probably opt for another 25bp cut at its next meeting …
Fiscal policy returns to centre stage this week, with Chancellor Rachel Reeves set to deliver her Autumn Budget on Wednesday. The debate will revolve around the size of the fiscal squeeze required to hit the government’s self-imposed rules and, crucially, …
