The actual tariff rate on US goods imports was only 9% in June, far below most estimates at the time of about 15%. This reflects a shift in the composition of imports towards countries and goods with relatively low tariffs. The actual tariff rate is …
20th August 2025
Rising delinquency rates among typically lower-income FHA borrowers hint at stress in riskier segments of the residential mortgage market. But since most FHA borrowers remain in decent financial shape and FHA loans make up only a small share of …
Our EM interest rate forecasts generally lie on the dovish side. But, in particular, we think that investors are underestimating the scale of interest rate cuts that will be delivered in Brazil and South Africa over the next 18 months or so. In contrast, …
Rates left on hold, but window for cuts is opening The Bank of Israel (BoI) left its policy rate on hold again today, at 4.50%, and the accompanying communications continued to highlight concerns about the inflationary risks stemming from the ongoing war …
A year ago, our clients were citing geopolitical risk and the second Trump term as their key blind spots going into 2025. Those factors have indeed buffeted the commercial property recovery to some degree, but the dominating narrative is one of …
23rd September 2025
Will the Chancellor’s second Budget be as big and as bad for the economy as her first? Will it dampen or ignite the gilt market’s fiscal fears? Ahead of the Budget on 26th November, our economists will tackle these questions and more in a special …
7th October 2025
The opening months of the Trump administration have generated plenty of noise about a remaking of the global order – but how much is actually changing? Is the breakdown in US–China relations still the defining challenge for the global economy? And what …
18th August 2025
July’s increase in core goods inflation in the euro-zone looks like a one-off, whereas services inflation is likely to keep falling. We forecast core inflation to fall from 2.3% in July to 2.0% by year-end. Data published this morning confirmed that both …
Despite signs of weakness in the broader trade data, China’s New Three export volumes reached a record high in July. This was mainly driven by a rise in exports of lithium-ion batteries. And while some of this may be due to tariff front-running, other …
Weak core inflation keeps door open to more rate cuts The jump in South Africa’s headline inflation rate to 3.5% y/y masked continued weakness in core inflation, which leaves the door open for the Reserve Bank’s easing cycle to continue. We remain …
BI cuts, a bit more easing on the cards Bank Indonesia (BI) cut its benchmark 7-day repo reverse repo rate by 25bp to 5.00% today and, with inflation subdued and GDP growth likely to slow, we think there’s scope for more easing over the rest of this year. …
Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack (Q3 2025) …
We think Chinese government bond (CGB) yields will be on the way back down before long, despite the PBOC’s apparent caution around rate cuts. At first glance, the PBOC’s decision to keep its Loan Prime Rate on hold today looks like another nail in the …
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Riksbank holds policy rate at 2% and will do so over the next couple of years The Riksbank left its policy rate unchanged today, judging that the recent deterioration in the …
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Rise in inflation won’t move the dial on interest rates much While the rise in CPI inflation from 3.6% in June to 3.8% (consensus and Capital Economics forecast 3.7%) will fuel …
When the RBNZ slashed rates by 25bp today, it effectively endorsed our long-held forecast for a below-consensus terminal rate of 2.5%. However, with the Bank judging the balance of risks to the outlook as tilted to the downside, we now expect the trough …
RBNZ hands down a dovish 25bp cut When the RBNZ slashed rates by 25bp today, it clearly signalled that there is more easing in the pipeline. Accordingly, we’re more confident than ever in our below-consensus terminal rate forecast of 2.5%. The RBNZ’s …
Resilience of exports won’t last much longer The July trade statistics suggest that higher US tariffs are still not having a major impact on Japan’s overall export performance, but we expect softer external demand to result in slower export growth over …
Very long-dated government bonds (which, for the purpose of this Focus , we define as those with more than ten years of residual maturity) have been under serious pressure at times this year. Demand from traditional sources seems to have waned, and we …
19th August 2025
The Chancellor is reportedly considering replacing stamp duty land tax (SDLT) and council tax with alternative property taxes in the Autumn Budget. Even if this was revenue-neutral, it could be more progressive than the current property tax system, …
We now expect growth to average 2.0% annualised in the second half of the year, before slowing slightly in 2026. The recent slowdown in employment growth and limited pass-through of tariffs to consumer prices has opened the door for the Fed to cut …
One feature of the summer lull in markets has been a slump in ICE BofAML’s MOVE Index of expected volatility in Treasuries, to its lowest level in more than three years. But this fall doesn’t necessarily imply a big shift in bonds lies around the corner. …
US Commercial Property Valuation Monitor (Q3 2025) …
The recent strength of inflation in the UK relative to that in the euro-zone appears to be mainly due to rises in “regulated” (i.e. government-set) prices, tax rises, and rents. These upward pressures should fade next year, and we expect the UK inflation …
Sovereign debt risks across Latin America have eased in the past year or so but there are still important nuances at a country level. Public finance risks in Brazil and Colombia are most concerning given wide budget deficits and no clear willingness on …
A surprise improvement While the pick-up in housing starts in July was somewhat of a positive surprise, as we expected flooding in Texas to heavily weigh on groundbreaking, the continued loss of momentum in permit issuance supports our view that the …
This page has been updated with additional analysis since initial publication. Softer core inflation data brings September rate cut back into the fold July’s softer core price data, combined with favourable downward revisions to previous months’ figures, …
The small upward revision to the level of real GDP doesn’t mean the economy will be any stronger in the future. And the downward revisions to some measures of inflation won’t influence the Bank of England’s conundrum of when to cut interest rates next. …
Strong growth in exports from Asia in the first half of the year has fuelled talk that, with US tariffs now in place, shipments will fall sharply as tariff front-running ends. But we’re not convinced. Other factors beyond tariff front-running have …
We don’t think the relatively unusual rotations within the US stock market are a sign that the relentless march of US equities, and especially the big tech sectors leading the way, is nearly at an end. At face value, last week was a fairly uneventful one …
Housing market turning a corner The fourth consecutive rise in home sales in July means that the housing market is developing close to our expectations, with prices stabilising last month. Housing starts recorded another strong month, with multi-family …
Reported simplifications to India’s Goods and Services Tax (GST) would, all else equal, result in a slightly larger fiscal deficit this year and next, as well as provide some policy-induced support to the economy in the face of high US tariffs. Reducing …
The unexpected contraction in the Israeli economy in Q2 amid the war with Iran should reverse this quarter, and so we think it is unlikely that the Bank of Israel (BoI) will cut interest rates at its meeting this Wednesday in response to weak activity. …
Weak investment will remain a drag on Korea’s economy over the coming quarters, as a prolonged downturn in the property sector continues to weigh on construction. GDP growth rebounded in the second quarter of the year, and more recent data paint a …
Europe Commercial Property Valuation Monitor (Q3 2025) …
Strong domestic demand and inflation point to rate hold in September The Chilean economy isn’t as weak as the slowdown in GDP growth to 0.4% q/q would suggest; there was a large drag from net trade while domestic demand remained very strong. This, …
President Trump likes to tell us that the United States “holds all the cards” in the ongoing trade war. Judging by the surprisingly mild inflationary impact of tariffs so far – less than most economists, including us, had anticipated – you might think …
The euro-zone’s goods trade surplus narrowed sharply in June as exports to the US dropped. But timelier business surveys suggest that overall goods export growth will pick up in the second half of the year. The goods trade surplus fell from €15.6bn in May …
Many central banks across Sub-Saharan Africa have cut interest rates over the past year or so and Nigeria will soon join the rate-cutting club. With inflation low or falling in most countries, we generally expect more monetary easing than the consensus by …
Despite concerns that over-crowding and heatwaves might reduce tourism to southern Europe, trips to the region are growing at a faster rate than in northern Europe. Instead, tourism has been growing more quickly during the off-peak season, in part driven …
