The recent escalation in US-China trade tensions seems to have resulted in an impasse, with both sides looking to the other to initiate deescalation. For now, the Xi-Trump meeting at the APEC summit at the end of this month looks to be the most likely off-ramp. Meanwhile, the divergence between the renminbi spot rate and the PBOC's fix suggests limited tolerance from the central bank for exchange rate depreciation – a stance which could prove detrimental if 100% US tariffs do come into force.
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