We believe monetary easing has further to run in the Antipodes. The case for policy stimulus is clear-cut in New Zealand, where the output gap is deeply negative. We have long argued that the RBNZ will cut rates to 2.5% this cycle, and analysts and …
27th August 2025
Rebound in price pressures could prompt less RBA easing While most of the jump in headline inflation in July reflected volatile components that the RBA will ignore, underlying inflation also rebounded. Our base remains that the RBA will continue to …
The unilateral reduction in tariffs by Ottawa in the US-Canada trade war raises the likelihood of the Bank of Canada resuming its easing cycle next month given that, with US tariffs unchanged, the upside risks to inflation have eased while the downside …
26th August 2025
The recent rise in services inflation in advanced economies has been driven by temporary and economy-specific factors, rather than a general trend. The unwinding of these factors, together with weaker labour demand, should weigh on services inflation …
Activity in many parts of the region, and Brazil in particular, slowed in Q2. Mexico was a key exception, although we doubt that the robust Q2 marks the start of a marked pick-up in growth. Meanwhile, the inflation picture across Latin America has become …
President Trump’s attempt to fire Fed Governor Lisa Cook looks set to go the courts, which will determine the extent and limits of the administration’s ability to influence monetary policy. It remains unlikely that Trump will be able to capture a majority …
Further falls cast doubt on our already bearish forecast Although we expect house prices to regain some momentum in the third quarter, the fourth consecutive monthly decline in June suggests that risks to our forecast of a 1% increase this year are …
A strong start to the third quarter July’s surprisingly positive durable goods orders numbers suggests that businesses may be acclimatising to tariff policy uncertainty and upping their investment. Weak capex survey intentions means we still expect …
Scope for easing ahead of election looks limited The Hungarian central bank (MNB) left its base rate on hold again today at 6.50%, and we think that the scope for monetary easing ahead of parliamentary elections in April 2026 will be limited. While the …
The Bank of England’s interest rate cuts haven’t boosted the economy much partly as they have been dampened by global developments. To deliver a bigger boost, the Bank would need to cut rates faster and further than widely expected, although the Bank is …
The French prime minister’s decision to call an early vote of confidence is most likely to trigger his replacement with yet another prime minister or (less likely) fresh legislative elections. Either way, France’s budget deficit will remain well above the …
Asia Chart Pack (August 2025) …
Despite the muted reaction to the latest developments, Trump’s efforts to bend the Fed to his will are a genuine threat to US markets. At the time of writing, the market reaction to Trump’s attempted firing of Fed Governor Cook had been fairly minimal. …
RBA’s easing cycle has much further to run Although the RBA will retain its cautious approach for the time being, we believe the Bank will ultimately cut rates further than most are predicting . The minutes of the RBA’s August meeting confirmed that the …
The Bank of Japan is overplaying the importance of structural changes in Japan’s labour market in explaining the post-pandemic pick-up in cost pressures. Even so, we still expect inflation to be sustained around the BoJ’s 2% target over the longer term. …
All-property capital values rose modestly by 0.1% in Q2, suggesting a market floor, with cap rates falling by 5 bps. However, we expect values to see limited upside due to the narrow spread to risk-free rates. At a sector and metro level, industrial, …
22nd August 2025
The dollar has given back most of its gains from earlier in the week after Fed Chair Powell’s Jackson Hole speech cemented expectations for a rate cut at the September FOMC meeting. That leaves the greenback on the backfoot heading into autumn. Even so, …
We doubt today’s rally in Treasuries and renewed weakness in the dollar will gather steam, despite Jerome Powell’s acknowledgement at the Jackson Hole symposium that an adjustment in the FOMC’s policy stance may be warranted. One reason is that a 25bp cut …
Labour demand could be even weaker In the wake of the disappointing July payrolls release, which revealed an unexpected near-stagnation in employment over the summer, Fed Chair Jerome Powell acknowledged in his Jackson Hole speech that “downside risks to …
Data released this week showed that headline inflation fell to 1.7% in July, from 1.9%. The headline rate is still picking up the carbon tax removal in April; excluding energy, inflation was unchanged at 2.5%. Moreover, the average of the CPI-trim and …
Powell on board with September cut Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech was more dovish than markets were braced for. His conclusion that “ with policy in restrictive territory, the baseline outlook and the shifting balance of risks may warrant adjusting our …
Strong domestic demand fuels surge in imports One common theme to emerge from the recently-released Q2 GDP data from Colombia and Chile is the persistent strength in imports, which increased by 2.6% q/q and 4.8% q/q respectively in real terms. Over the …
China’s government is making louder noises about boosting consumption, a shift that’s critical not just for rebalancing its investment-heavy economy, but also for easing global imbalances. But are these signals part of a real policy pivot? China Economist …
Talks intensify over security guarantees The intensification of talks to end the war in Ukraine signals cautious progress, but Russia and Ukraine remain far apart in their key demands. And Russia’s recalcitrance has become increasingly clear in the last …
Oil prices have fallen back in the wake of the Israel-Iran ceasefire and, with more oil supply coming online, we think that prices will decline further. Rising oil output will lead to faster GDP growth in the Gulf, although this will mask weakness in …
A strong June, but potential trouble ahead The strong rebound in June retail sales should reassure the Bank of Canada that consumer spending is holding up, although the flash estimate of a drop back in sales in July implies that growth remains muted on …
Economic data released this week cast some doubt on our forecast that euro-zone GDP growth will start to accelerate in the latter part of this year. Admittedly, the Composite PMI for the euro-zone rose again in August. However, it pointed to only a small …
Kenya’s scramble for finance and China alignment This week brought fresh details about Kenya’s strategy to deal with its fiscal problems, which appears increasingly reliant on liability management operations. This may alleviate short-term liquidity …
Though future changes to US tariffs could still cause some volatility in equity markets, we think other factors will mean equities outside the US continue to make decent gains for the rest of this year and next. It has generally been a good few weeks for …
July’s better-than-expected public borrowing figures did little to brighten the gloomy outlook ahead of the Autumn Budget. (See here .) The 44 basis point rise in 20-year gilt yields since the Spring Statement suggests the Chancellor’s headroom against …
Social security tweak will hurt near-term activity From 1 st September onwards, companies in China and their employees will no longer be able to avoid making social security contributions. This will pave the way for higher pay-outs over the medium-term …
EU natural gas: a brief climb before the steep drop The Trump-Putin summit in Alaska, as well as the subsequent meeting between President Trump and European leaders, didn’t deliver a breakthrough towards reaching an end to the war in Ukraine. In fact, it …
Korea – central bank to resume easing cycle After lowering interest rates by a full 100bps between October 2024 and June 2025, the Bank of Korea hit pause at its July meeting. Now, attention turns to Thursday’s decision – and it looks set to be a close …
The sharp rise in euro-zone negotiated wage growth to 4.0% in Q2 was entirely due to base effects. In the coming quarters the labour market should continue cooling, causing negotiated wage growth (and other measures of wages) to fall to a level consistent …
Overview – UK commercial property rental growth continues to surprise on the upside, but the capital value recovery is already running out of steam. Looking ahead, weak economic growth, a narrow spread between property yields and risk-free rates, and …
Tariff threats jolt policymakers into action Time is running out for India to secure a reduction to the 50% tariff on exports to the US ahead of the 27 th August deadline. Last week’s summit between Presidents Trump and Putin did not move the needle for …
RBNZ concedes more stimulus is needed The main event this week was the RBNZ’s meeting on Wednesday. Although the Bank’s move to cut rates by 25bp was widely anticipated, markets were caught wrongfooted by its overtly dovish pivot. Indeed, the Committee …
Tariffs starting to bite, but economy resilient The economic data released this week were a mixed bag. The doves on the BoJ Board will feel vindicated by the 4.3% m/m plunge in real exports in July. (See Chart 1.) And while that still left them above …
October rate hike still in play for BoJ Although inflation is likely to cool a bit further in the months ahead, it shouldn’t prevent the Bank of Japan from resuming its tightening cycle in October. Headline inflation fell from 3.3% in June to 3.1% in …
US interest rate expectations and the dollar are edging higher ahead of Fed Chair Powell’s much-anticipated final Jackson Hole speech tomorrow. Given the extent of policy easing still discounted in the US money market, the risks arguably are still skewed …
21st August 2025
India is not anywhere near as dependent on final US demand as many other EMs are but a total tariff of 50% would be large enough to have a material impact on GDP growth. If it sticks, the resulting drop in exports to the US could reduce GDP growth by …
Egypt: the door’s open for rate cuts to resume Egypt’s President al-Sisi this week renewed Hassan Abdalla’s term as Acting Governor of the Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) for another year in a sign that the government remains committed to macro orthodoxy. In …
Small improvement in sales doesn’t change the narrative Despite a small uptick in July, home sales have held in a narrow 3.9-4.1 million annualised range since mid-2023, a historically weak level that highlights the lack of momentum in the struggling …
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Activity rebounds, upside risks to inflation remain The rises in August’s composite activity PMI and services output prices balances marginally increase the chances that the Bank …
Slow growth and slight increase in price pressures August’s flash Composite PMI suggests that the euro-zone economy and manufacturing in particular have continued to be fairly resilient in the face of tariffs but that overall economic growth remains weak. …
Undershoot not as good as it looks July’s undershoot in government borrowing continued the decent start to the fiscal year and leaves borrowing broadly in line with the Office for Budget Responsibility’s (OBR) 2025/26 fiscal year forecast of £177.7bn. …
Even though direct government spending now accounts for the largest share of GDP on record, we aren’t convinced that this explains the prolonged weakness in productivity growth . The conventional wisdom is that an unbridled post-pandemic expansion in …
Early signs that US tariffs are starting to bite While the strength in the composite PMI in August confirms that Japan’s economy is proving resilient to global trade tensions, there are early signs that external demand is weakening in earnest. According …
Only limited support for Fed rate cut at July FOMC meeting The minutes of the Fed’s late-July FOMC meeting reveal that there was no broader support for a rate cut beyond the two formal dissenters – Trump appointees Michelle Bowman and Christopher Waller. …
20th August 2025
