Headline inflation to drop sharply, but services inflation remains sticky November’s inflation data will do nothing to alter ECB policymakers’ view that current monetary policy settings are appropriate. Next year, we think that headline and core inflation …
2nd December 2025
Modest slowdown, solid but unspectacular growth likely in 2026 South Africa’s economy expanded by 0.5% q/q in the third quarter of the year, a modest slowdown from the revised 0.9% q/q growth seen in Q2 on the back of softer growth in industry. The …
Taiwan is on course to record GDP growth of over 7% this year and our forecast for the economy to expand by another 5% next year lies well above the consensus. Rapid growth in exports of AI-related products is likely to remain the key driver of the …
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. We’re hosting a 20-minute online briefing at 3pm GMT on Wednesday 3 rd December to discuss what the Budget means for the residential and commercial property outlook. (Register …
The prospect of the Bank of Japan resuming its hiking cycle a bit sooner than previously thought has sent tremors through global bond and equity markets this week, but we suspect they could nonetheless weather further tightening. The modest recovery in …
Overview – The economy will continue to grow at a healthy pace, which should ensure that the labour market remains very tight. While energy subsidies and falling crude oil prices will weigh on headline inflation, measures of underlying inflation should …
Overview – Asia-Pacific property faces a slow, uneven recovery as high risk-free rates and weak growth limit investment demand and therefore, prospects for yield-driven capital gains. Spreads over risk-free rates remain tight across markets, aside from in …
The fall in the EM manufacturing PMI to a four-month low in November reflects a loss of momentum in some of the largest EMs, most notably China. But conditions in industry have strengthened in some places, including in Emerging Europe and parts of South …
1st December 2025
November’s manufacturing PMI surveys paint a picture of soft growth in both activity and prices for global industry, with global supply chains still showing no signs of stress from tariffs. The output component of the global manufacturing PMI edged …
Tariff uncertainty remains a drag on manufacturers’ order books The further small decline in the ISM Manufacturing Index in November adds to the evidence that tariffs and related uncertainty are weighing on the factory sector, though not entirely …
We forecast emerging market equities to post solid returns in 2026, although not on the same scale as the exceptional gains seen this year. We expect the biggest returns in EM Asia as the AI boom continues, while returns in EMEA and LatAm will be lower, …
Growth slows, but still solid by recent standards Nigeria record a modest slowdown in GDP growth to 4.0% y/y in Q3 and, while the boost from higher oil output will continue to fade over the coming quarters, we think the backdrop of lower inflation and …
The Fed looks set to cut interest rates again in December, but we think investors are too optimistic about further easing next year. We expect only one 25bp cut in 2026, compared with roughly 75bp of loosening currently priced into futures. As a result, …
Aside from the monetary loosening undertaken by the ECB at the beginning of the global financial crisis, its interest rate cuts from mid-2024 to mid-2025 were the deepest over a 12-month period in its history. But the impact on GDP has been small and it …
The past year has underlined just how influential a handful of macro and market forces have become, from the AI investment boom to persistent US-China tensions to the build up of fiscal risks. Those themes will continue to define the outlook for 2026. But …
Net lending to property slightly lower again but above the 2024 average At £1.47bn, net lending to commercial property softened again in October, from the £1.65bn recorded in September. That pushed the three-month total down to £5.7bn, the lowest level …
While the accuracy of some official economic data in the UK and US has deteriorated recently, the issue is mainly concentrated in labour market data and does not appear to be a problem in other advanced economies. But outdated collection methods, budget …
We’re hosting a 20-minute online briefing at 3pm GMT on Wednesday 3 rd December to discuss what the Budget means for the property outlook. (Register here .) This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Budget jitters …
Small signs of improvement The increase in the manufacturing PMIs out of Emerging Europe in November offers some encouragement that demand conditions in the region’s industrial sectors may be past the worst. We expect a pickup in external demand to …
Almost everyone expects real economic growth in China to slow next year . But most forecasters think the picture will brighten in nominal terms thanks to a rebound in inflation and a bottoming out of home prices. By contrast, we think that China will …
Slowdown positive for rebalancing efforts The slowdown in Turkish GDP growth in Q3, to 1.1% q/q, still leaves the economy running relatively hot. But the positive contribution from net exports suggests that policymakers’ efforts to rebalance the economy …
With corporate profits hitting fresh record highs, the BoJ’s concern that US tariffs will provide a major headwind to business investment and wage growth looks increasingly overdone. To be sure, profits in the manufacturing sector have stalled but there …
Equity markets have finally got into the festive spirit, with a fairly broad-based rebound underway. In part, that appears to reflect renewed hopes for more Fed easing, which we think will ultimately prove misplaced. But, the reason we expect the FOMC to …
The less stringent criteria for accessing the government’s support scheme for first-time home buyers hasn’t noticeably boosted overall housing demand. Indeed, the key constraint remains extremely stretched affordability, particularly if the RBA doesn’t …
The November PMI readings for most countries in Asia remained consistent with soft manufacturing activity. However, the PMIs haven’t been a great guide to the hard activity data for some economies lately. Exports from most of Asia have been surging in …
Australia’s house price growth picked up further in November and leading indicators suggest the rally has further to run. However, with the RBA unlikely to lower interest rates any further, mortgage-debt servicing costs are on track to surge over the …
Slowing services activity weighing on growth This report was first published on Monday 1 st December, covering the official PMIs and the RatingDog manufacturing PMI. We added commentary on the RatingDog services and composite PMIs on Wednesday 3 rd …
In response to a hawkish speech by Governor Ueda today, we now expect the Bank of Japan to lift its policy rate to 0.75% at its upcoming meeting that ends on 19 th December instead of our previous forecast of January. Ueda noted that the adverse effects …
Slump in imports boosts GDP The better-than-expected 2.6% gain in third-quarter GDP growth, compared to the 0.5% implied by the earlier monthly GDP data, was entirely for the wrong reasons. An 8.6% annualised slump in imports contributed 2.8%-points to …
28th November 2025
The US and Ukraine reported that they had drawn up an “updated and refined peace framework” to end the war in Ukraine after talks in Geneva on Sunday. Details of this framework are not widely available, but comments from both sides suggest it is more …
Africa Chart Pack (Nov. 2025) …
SA-US G20 spat, other powers moving into Africa The US this week continued its long-running campaign against South Africa. While US-Africa relations continue to deteriorate, alternative powers are moving in with financial and political support. President …
TTF prices at 18-month lows as peace deal on table The latest fall in EU natural gas prices – which saw the TTF benchmark drop below €30 per MWh this week for the first time since May 2024 – has been driven largely by hopes that the Russia-Ukraine peace …
Brazil’s slowdown firmly underway GDP data released next week out of Brazil are likely to show a quarterly contraction in Q3. The BCB’s monthly economic activity index has fallen in four of the last five months, with activity declining by almost 1.0% in …
Growth set to slow, but outperformance to continue We learnt today that India’s GDP growth accelerated in Q3 (Q2 of FY25/26) to a breakneck 8.2% y/y, from an already-strong 7.8% y/y in Q2. (Our initial response to the data can be read here .) Admittedly, …
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Import-led jump masks underlying weakness The big upside surprise to GDP growth last quarter was entirely due to a sharp drop back in imports and masks a much more worrying …
Much attention has been given recently to the roll-back of President Macron’s pension reform in France. However, the arguably even more significant pension backsliding in Germany has gone almost unnoticed. The German parliament will soon start debating a …
As the dust settles on this week’s Budget, we take a step back and answer three questions we’ve been asked most frequently by clients. Clients can catch up on our detailed analysis and our online briefing following Wednesday’s fiscal event here and here . …
Headline and core inflation slightly higher in November The national inflation data for November published today suggest that headline and core inflation in the euro-zone edged up. November’s data show that among the euro-zone’s largest countries, …
Vanke’s woes suggest state support being reduced In a first for a major state-backed developer, Vanke this week announced plans to delay repayment of an onshore bond. The firm’s debt has sold off sharply on the news, with some of its onshore bonds now …
GDP growth surges in Q3, outlook is positive despite US tariffs India’s economic growth surged in Q3 and came in well above expectations. Punitive US tariffs remain a headwind for the outlook, but prospects for a trade deal with the US appear to have …
The latest data suggest that the global economy has maintained its momentum at the start of Q4. Global trade and industry have held up well despite US tariffs, although there were signs of cracks in China’s export resilience in October. In advanced …
Taiwan: defence spending plan to be slimmed down Taiwan’s President William Lai this week unveiled a TWD1.25trn ($40bn) special defence budget but it is likely that this will be watered down by the opposition-controlled parliament. Even if it passes, the …
But a move in January is still more likely Press reports this week suggest that the Bank of Japan is preparing markets for a rate hike as soon as next month. Indeed, Board member Masu signalled over the weekend that she could be the fourth Board member …
Fresh problems in China’s property sector won’t, in our view, stop the country’s stock market from powering ahead over the next year or so. They do, however, point to longer-run challenges. News that large Chinese property developer Vanke was seeking to …
Case for additional policy support is weak Data released this week will almost certainly put the RBA on high alert about upside risks to its outlook. To start with, the ABS published its first ever complete monthly CPI , which showed that trimmed mean CPI …
Economic activity will rebound this quarter Strong increases in industrial production and retail sales in October suggest that Japan’s economy at least stopped contracting this quarter. The 1.4% m/m rise in industrial production in October followed an …
Underlying inflation set to remain above 2% With the labour market still tight and inflation excluding fresh food and energy set to remain above 3% for now, the Bank of Japan will resume its tightening cycle over the next couple of months. Taking the …
27th November 2025
