Our View: The latest data suggest that GDP growth in Central and Eastern Europe generally remained resilient in Q3, while Russia’s economy slowed further. We expect this divergence to continue over the coming year as most CEE economies benefit from a …
23rd October 2025
The Bank of Korea kept rates on hold today and cited financial stability risks as a key constraint on further easing. But we think those concerns are overdone and the bank retained its easing bias so, while we no longer expect a rate cut in November, …
Interest rates on hold, but BoK to resume easing cycle soon The Bank of Korea left its policy rate unchanged today at 2.50%, but we doubt this marks the end of its easing cycle. The decision was correctly anticipated by 12 of the 18 analysts polled by …
Economy holding up, but Ueda believes that impact of tariffs has merely been delayed Bank will probably want to gather more information on strength of Shunto pay hikes We expect the Bank to hike its policy rate in January; rates will reach 1.5% by 2027 …
Self-storage cap rates are roughly on par with the 10-year Treasury yield, which is well short of the 200bps spread seen over the last 10 years. Coupled with an uninspiring outlook for rent growth, this leaves self-storage looking more overvalued than any …
22nd October 2025
US small caps have outperformed the average US large-cap one over the past six months or so, but we doubt that will continue. At face value, small-cap stocks have underperformed their large-cap peers . But this mainly reflects the strong performance of …
Weak alternative labour market indicators point to another 25bp rate cut Risks of broadening inflation could limit pace of easing further out Miran set to be a lone wolf again The weakness in various labour market indicators suggest the FOMC will vote for …
Employment and inflation both surprised to the upside last month But comments from Macklem show he is more concerned about excess supply We continue to expect the Bank to cut by more than markets are pricing in Recent dovish comments from Governor Tiff …
China’s exports have been far more resilient in the face of US tariffs than many had expected. But some damage has still been done – our calculations point to a 0.3% of GDP hit as of September. And the cost would have been greater had the renminbi not …
Six months on from the unveiling of President Trump’s tariff agenda, the direct effects on commodity markets have been contained to higher US price premiums for steel and aluminium. That said, domestic demand has seemingly remained resilient and there is …
The experience from other emerging markets suggests that, even if the ongoing corruption scandal in the Philippines doesn’t fuel further unrest, a more concerted effort by the government to clamp down on graft could hurt investment as well as purchases …
Another weak inflation reading means easing cycle should soon restart South Africa’s weaker-than-expected headline inflation reading of 3.4% y/y for September should do more than enough to sway the Reserve Bank to restart its monetary easing cycle next …
BI holds, but more cuts still on the cards Bank Indonesia unexpectedly left its benchmark interest rate on hold at 4.75% today but the accompanying communications suggest that further easing remains more likely than not. We expect three more rate cuts, …
We’re hosting a 20-minute online briefing at 9.30am BST today to discuss the outlook for inflation and the implications for both the Bank of England and the Chancellor. (Register here .) This page has been updated with additional analysis since first …
Japan’s new Prime Minister is a strong supporter of the ‘Abenomics’ reforms that had a big effect on the country’s financial markets a bit over a decade ago. But we think they – especially JGBs and the yen – will fare very differently this time around. …
Office attendance in Australia has recovered from pandemic lows but has stalled at around 70% of pre-pandemic levels since 2024. But the larger exposure of Melbourne and Sydney to the finance and information sectors means that those markets have far lower …
Slowdown in exports has probably run its course Export values rebounded strongly in September and with US business investment set to go from strength to strength, the post-Liberation Day slowdown has now run its course. The 4.2% annual rise in export …
The US equity market has recovered its poise over the past couple of days after recent jitters around the regional banking sector, but the concerns around credit losses may linger. Even if policymakers’ worries about systemic risk in the private credit …
21st October 2025
The collapse of auto parts supplier First Brands may have triggered losses at US regional banks, but we don’t think private credit represents a threat to the stability of the broader US financial system. Despite claims of a credit boom, US households and …
We’re hosting a 20-minute online briefing on Wednesday 22nd October at 9.30am BST, shortly after the release of September’s CPI figures, to discuss whether CPI inflation has peaked and the implications for both the Bank of England and the Chancellor. …
Rental growth has continued to surprise on the upside, but signs of a more significant compression of yields in August have not carried through to September. Capital value growth is therefore muted, with our Lead Indicator pointing to a modest …
CPI fails to give a clear steer for the Bank’s October rate decision The modest upside surprise to CPI inflation in September was largely due to higher food prices and a rebound in travel-related prices, rather than broad-based gains. Nonetheless, with …
MNB holding firm The Hungarian central bank (MNB) delivered no surprises in leaving its base rate on hold today, at 6.50%, and we continue to think that the easing cycle will remain on pause this year. While we had previously thought that a small window …
After a relatively good run, we think EM currencies will generally depreciate over the coming quarters as the US dollar recovers. Heavily managed currencies in high-inflation economies like the Turkish lira and Argentine peso are likely to fall furthest …
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Dismal backdrop for the Autumn Budget September’s figures highlight the poor performance of the public finances even though the economy hasn’t been terribly weak. This supports …
The main theme running through the Bank of Canada’s latest quarterly business and consumer surveys is uncertainty, with CUSMA renegotiations on the horizon. This supports our view that exports and business investment will grow only slowly, limiting the …
20th October 2025
Given that the EU has already largely discontinued imports of Russian oil and pipeline natural gas, the confirmation that the bloc will completely shift away from Russian natural gas by 2027 is unlikely have significant implications for global energy …
The price of gold has arguably risen so far above ‘fair’ value that it might come crashing down soon. Imagine gold had the one and only property of being a perfect store of value. In that case, its price would simply rise over time with the general level …
Overview – While slightly lower borrowing costs have boosted the near - term outlook, the decline has not been large enough to meaningfully improve housing affordability. In addition, we believe that market pricing overstates the extent to which the Fed …
The emergence of DeepSeek, and BYD’s recent advances in EVs, have elevated awareness of China’s strength in innovation. For China’s leadership, they are also encouraging signs of success for a longstanding-strategy that, unusually for an emerging economy, …
Our new CE Capital Value Lead Indicator for the euro-zone is consistent with our latest forecast view that prime all-property capital value growth will slow to below 5% y/y by year-end. We have recently introduced proprietary CE leading indicators for …
One of the more dispiriting aspects of the US–China trade war is the insistence from both Washington and Beijing that they are “winning.” The truth, of course, is that no one wins a trade war. Yet the selective – and often dubious – data used to make …
China’s green technology exports accelerated in year-on-year terms in September and were close to record high levels. Despite the risks to exports from new rare earth controls and tariffs, the former appears narrow in scope and won’t affect downstream …
We think it is just a matter of time before the SNB returns to negative policy rates as inflation is close to zero and geopolitical risks may put upward pressure on the franc. But negative rates will not make a reappearance elsewhere because inflation, …
Growth becoming even more dependent on exports Headline GDP growth fell to its lowest in a year last quarter. But we think the figures still overstate the pace of economic expansion by at least 1.0%-pts. The September activity data were mixed – they …
RBNZ will look past pickup in CPI inflation Although headline inflation rose to the top of the RBNZ’s 1-3% target band last quarter, the Bank will put more emphasis on the fact that core inflation remained well-behaved. Accordingly, we still expect the …
19th October 2025
While the Employment Report – and, in its absence, ADP’s alternative estimate – has shown private payrolls growth slowing to a crawl, surveys of firms’ hiring intentions point to an incipient turnaround. September’s NFIB Jobs Report shows firms’ hiring …
17th October 2025
Although the dramatic fall in the share prices of US regional banks has sparked memories of the 2023 mini banking crisis, the backdrop is very different this time. We don’t think these jitters are likely to prevent the stock market rallying for long. The …
Bailout with strings attached Comments from US President Trump this week that if Milei “loses, we are not going to be generous with Argentina” highlight just how much is at stake at the mid-term elections on 26 th October. (We’ll be discussing the outcome …
The slump in the CFIB Business Barometer this month leaves it consistent with a renewed decline in GDP. With firms’ inflation expectations under control, that adds weight to our view that the Bank of Canada will be forced to cut interest rates by more …
View all of our FX forecasts and related analysis on our new interactive FX dashboard . The dollar has fallen back a bit this week amid renewed US-China trade tensions and, over the past day or two, jitters around US regional banks. Risk sentiment has …
We’re hosting a special in-person roundtable event at our London office on Wednesday 12th November to discuss if the Chancellor’s second Budget on 26th November will be as big and as bad for the economy as her first, and if it will dampen or ignite the …
OPEC+ wave of supply will fully hit prices soon Oil prices came under heavy pressure this week as US-China trade tensions heated up, the IEA revised up its estimates for a market surplus, and President Trump had a “ productive ” conversation with …
In just a few days, US–China relations have taken a troubling turn. How did we go from the goodwill of the London and Madrid bilaterals to the current war of words, the threats and the counter-threats? Is this simply pre-APEC brinkmanship, or the start of …
The deadline for governments to submit their 2026 fiscal plans to the European Commission passed this week, and the data so far point to a moderate loosening of fiscal policy in the euro-zone as a whole, largely due to Germany’s spending splurge. But we …
The surge in net lending by banks to commercial property firms may in part reflect borrowers being forced to refinance loans on buildings they have been unable to sell. But in contrast to the GFC, when net lending also initially surged as loans weren’t …
