All of our coverage on the Middle East conflict can be found here . Key pieces are below. Are the jumps in rate expectations and gilt yields in the past few days justified? At the end of last week, the markets were pricing in one 25 basis point (bps) hike …
20th March 2026
In light of the damage to Qatar’s gas infrastructure and the further increase in energy prices this week, we are revising our euro-zone forecasts. Our new projections are based on the assumption that the price of Brent and TTF peak in the second quarter …
Consumers shielded from price rises so far The conflict in Iran has not so far had any impact on the cost of driving in India. Retail fuel prices are administered by India’s mostly state-owned oil marketing companies (OMCs). Prices of petrol, diesel and …
Pity the poor central banker. As energy prices surge, they are grappling with the trade-off between growth and inflation, while trying to communicate this all to markets without triggering an unwanted tightening in financial conditions. At the end of an …
The surge in energy prices that has accompanied fresh fighting in the Middle East challenges assumptions around global growth, inflation and central bank policy across both developed and emerging markets. Amid heightened uncertainty around the conflict’s …
Looking beyond the short term in the LNG market The attack on Qatar’s LNG export hub grabbed the headlines and has lifted Asia LNG (JKM) and European natural gas prices by 40% and 20%, respectively, from the start of the week. Officials announced that the …
All of our coverage on the Middle East conflict can be found here , but we have highlighted some key pieces below. Brazil an exceptional case Despite the spike in global oil prices, Brazil’s central bank on Wednesday kicked off its easing cycle, albeit …
Slower growth, higher inflation, fewer rate cuts With the crisis in Iran continuing, we have incorporated new assumptions for energy prices into our GDP, inflation and interest rate forecasts for Asia. On our new baseline scenario, Brent crude will …
All of our coverage on the Middle East conflict can be found here , but we have highlighted some key pieces below. Policymakers left in the dark The main message from central bank communications this week is that they are waiting for the fog of war to …
Improved start to the year The 1.1% m/m rise in retail sales in January was worse than expected but, along with February’s advance estimate for another gain, still paints a more positive picture for household spending than late last year. Retail sales …
AI-related spending is giving a significant boost to aggregate demand and GDP growth in some countries. The biggest beneficiaries so far are the US, where the bulk of the spending is occurring, and the major tech exporters including Taiwan. The diffusion …
This Weekly Roundup covers a busy week in central banking, our outlook for beleaguered bond markets, and upcoming briefings on our latest macro and market forecasts. Below are some highlights from our coverage from the past week. 1. Central bankers faced …
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. All of our coverage of the macro and market implications of the Middle East conflict can be found here . Fiscal position worse than expected even before energy price shock is …
All of our coverage on the Middle East conflict can be found here , but we have highlighted some key pieces below. Gasoline prices jumped to a record high of ¥ 190/liter at the beginning of the week but the government’s decision to cap them at ¥ …
China’s relative equity and bond market resilience could continue even if the war drags on, although the outlook for the renminbi is less clear. China’s financial markets have been some of the better performers over the war so far, especially among net …
All of our coverage on the Middle East conflict can be found here , but we have highlighted some key pieces below. Higher-for-longer risks are front and centre The Reserve Bank of Australia was the only G10 central bank to raise interest rates this week. …
All of our coverage on the Middle East conflict can be found here , but we have highlighted some key pieces below. The conflict in the Middle East has escalated further over the past week, especially in the last 24 hours. More key members of Iran’s …
19th March 2026
While the conflict in the Middle East could evolve in myriad ways, we think government bonds would typically recover in our ‘baseline’ scenario but struggle in our ‘adverse’ one. That largely reflects what we think would happen to monetary policy. We …
Before ECB policymakers react to the rise in energy prices, they will wait for more clarity on the size and duration of the shock. There would be no need for a response if energy prices dropped back towards pre-war levels fairly soon, but this looks …
The Iran conflict has increased uncertainty and pushed up interest rates, both of which will weigh on investment activity over the next few months. But, assuming the impact of the conflict is short-lived, upward pressure on property yields will be …
Sharp fall in new home sales a weather-related blip The large drop in new home sales in January reflects the impact of extreme cold weather across much of the country, and is likely to have reversed last month. Moreover, newbuild sales are less vulnerable …
While leaving interest rates at 3.75% today as widely expected, the Bank of England suggested it is more concerned about the upsides to inflation from the leap in energy prices triggered by the conflict in the Middle East than the downsides to activity. …
Chance of ECB hiking in April is rising The ECB’s press release and updated forecasts suggest that policymakers think that the inflationary effects of higher energy prices will outweigh the disinflationary effects of weaker economic growth. While they are …
Sustained high oil prices would stall the nascent manufacturing recovery by weighing on global demand. The data centre buildout would likely go on unaffected, however, sustaining strong demand for hi-tech manufactured goods, with an increasing share met …
BoE ready to react, and seems a bit more concerned about inflation than activity While leaving interest rates at 3.75% today as widely expected, the Bank of England played the current uncertain outlook for energy prices with a fairly straight bat by not …
The comparative affordability of renting versus owner-occupation is one factor that we expect to support rental demand across most European markets in the coming years, especially in the German markets and Vienna where the cost gap is highest. In our UK …
SNB leaves rates unchanged, stresses uncertainty The SNB left its policy rate unchanged at zero today and nudged up its inflation forecast trivially. Otherwise, its commentary underlines the Bank’s willingness to intervene to limit upward pressure on the …
CBC to stay on the sidelines Taiwan’s central bank (CBC) left its main policy rate on hold today (at 2.00%) and, with growth likely to hold up well in the face of the conflict in the Middle East and the government limiting the pass through from higher …
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Jobs growth stabilising, but labour market still weak before stagflation shock While there were some green shoots of a recovery in payroll employment in February, today’s data …
A slim majority of BoJ Board members believe that the conflict in the Middle East will on balance strengthen inflationary pressures in Japan. Accordingly, we’re sticking to our forecast that the Bank will deliver another 25bp rate hike at its April …
Bank of Japan will hike again in April The Bank of Japan gave little away when it decided to keep interest rates unchanged today but we still think it will hike rates again at its next meeting in April. The Bank’s decision to keep its policy rate at 0.75% …
Renewed rise in unemployment won’t prevent further rate hikes With inflation set to approach 5%, the renewed rise in the unemployment in February won’t prevent the RBA from hiking rates further. The 48,900 rise in employment in February meant that …
New Zealand’s recovery struggling even before the Iran conflict With the economy still operating with substantial excess capacity, we think the RBNZ will leave rates on hold for several months to come. However, there is a high degree of uncertainty around …
18th March 2026
A very cautious easing cycle begins The scale of further interest rate cuts in Brazil – following Copom’s 25bp cut (to 14.75%) to start the easing cycle today – will hinge on the duration and intensity of the energy shock. But the sheer restrictiveness of …
The FOMC’s statement and dot plot today were arguably not as hawkish as many speculated, with the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) still pointing to one interest rate cut this year, despite an upgrade to the median projections for inflation. That …
Limited changes from the FOMC as it waits for more clarity The FOMC’s statement and dot plot today were arguably not as hawkish as many speculated, with the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) still pointing to one interest rate cut this year, despite …
The Bank of Canada sounded marginally dovish while keeping its key policy rate at 2.25% today, stating that the growth outlook had worsened and downplaying the risks of second-round effects from higher oil prices materialising anytime soon. This supports …
The inflation backdrop is growing increasingly problematic for the Fed and rate cuts are not likely anytime soon. That said, our sense is that the chance of rate hikes and a meaningful further sell-off in Treasuries driven by the conflict is limited. We …
Bank cautiously pushes back against rate hike expectations The Bank of Canada sounded marginally dovish while keeping its key policy rate at 2.25% today, stating that the growth outlook had worsened and that it would look through the Iran war’s immediate …
Even as optimism builds around AI's transformative potential, uncertainty about its economic impact – from the pace of adoption and the distribution of gains to the risks around disruption – is intensifying. This is uncertainty with a critical global …
Inflation pressures uncomfortably strong before oil price surge The large upside surprise to the PPI in February confirms that stronger inflationary pressures were already making their way through supply chains even prior to the surge in oil prices. Final …
Growth pick-up won’t last Chile’s economy ended last year on a strong footing, with GDP rising by 0.6% q/q, but the energy price spike and fiscal tightening planned under President Kast will cause the economy to weaken in the coming quarters. The outturn …
Kenya’s reliance on energy imports from Gulf States leaves it amongst the most vulnerable on the continent to the conflict in the Middle East. The fragile external position leaves the onus on the government to either tighten fiscal policy or allow the …
The Iran conflict adds fresh uncertainty to what was already shaping up to be a fragile recovery for UK commercial property. But how significant is this renewed instability in the Middle East for UK returns? And where can investors find opportunities for …
Inflation slumps but energy shock presents clear upside risks The fall in South Africa’s inflation rate to 3.0% y/y in February provides welcome news for the Reserve Bank. But the energy shock will push up inflation and means rate cuts are off the cards …
The spike in energy prices has already caused Turkey’s central bank to tighten monetary policy and Pakistan may not be far behind. Most other central banks will be more reluctant to tighten but those in Indonesia, the Philippines, Mexico and parts of …
