Although the EM manufacturing PMI dipped in October, the index remains close to its highest level since the start of the year. Even so, China’s industrial sector has lost momentum recently and the renewed drop in EM new export orders points to softer …
3rd November 2025
Key charts to gauge the fiscal sustainability challenges faced by G7 economies. … G7 Fiscal Risk Monitor …
Small decline in headline index not a huge concern The small decline in the ISM Manufacturing Index in October is not a huge concern, as it was entirely driven by the volatile production component, while new orders and employment both inched higher. That …
Ottawa will need to take evasive action to stem the gradual exodus of US manufacturers from the auto sector. While counter-tariffs and quota reductions will help retain production if US tariffs stay at current levels, more drastic measures – such as …
While other major European countries have taken some steps to limit immigration, Spain has liberalised its immigration rules further this year. So we think immigration to Spain will remain very high relative to its peers over the coming years, continuing …
We recently hosted an online Drop-In session to review the latest Fed and ECB decisions and preview the Bank of England’s November meeting. (Recording available here .) This Update provides answers to some of the questions that we received. The key point …
Another weak batch of PMIs, but it’s not all bad news The weak manufacturing PMIs out of Emerging Europe in October, at face value, signal further difficulties for the region’s industrial sectors. But the PMIs haven’t been the most reliable guide to the …
Disinflation resumes The fall in Turkish inflation last month, to 32.9% y/y, will provide some comfort to policymakers after the road bump in the disinflation process in September and keeps the door open for monetary easing to continue at the central …
This page has been updated with additional analysis. Inflation will remain very low for foreseeable future The slight fall in Swiss headline inflation in October will come as a big surprise to the SNB, which expected inflation to increase markedly in the …
Recent developments reinforce the divergent outlooks for the Antipodean economies. The RBA has cut rates by just 75bp so far. Given the relative resilience of the Australian economy and ongoing signs of inflation persistence, the Bank is likely to stay on …
A more hawkish tone from the Fed and a mixed reaction to recent big tech earnings reports presents another potential speedbump for risky assets. Ultimately, we think continued robust US growth underpinned by the ongoing AI-boom means that, while the Fed …
The October PMI readings for most countries in Asia remained consistent with weak manufacturing activity. We expect economic growth in the region to soften in the near term and, with inflation likely to remain contained, central banks are set to loosen …
Australia’s housing rally showed no signs of slowing in October. Given the RBA’s ongoing concerns about shelter inflation, the data reinforce our view that policy easing is unlikely to be on the agenda anytime soon. Australia’s housing rally has continued …
RBA to stand pat despite softer consumption growth Notwithstanding the slowdown in household spending last quarter, the RBA will almost certainly leave rates on hold at its meeting tomorrow. We don’t expect rate cuts to be on the agenda until the second …
The dollar has continued to strengthen in the wake of a relatively hawkish message from the FOMC. Combined with a generally more neutral stance from other central banks this week, that has taken the DXY index to its strongest level since late July. While …
31st October 2025
The mixed reaction to this week’s news from some of the US hyperscalers may reflect growing concern about the cost of the AI arms race. But our forecast is that the big-tech sectors will fuel more gains in the S&P 500 as demand for AI grows. To re-cap, …
Fed delivers hawkish cut The Fed delivered a hawkish rate cut this week, with Chair Jerome Powell pushing back against market expectations for another at the next FOMC meeting, warning that “there were strongly differing views about how to proceed in …
Argentina: post-election optimism Argentine financial markets have rallied this week following the better-than-expected performance of President Milei’s LLA party in Sunday’s mid-term elections. We discussed the outcome in a Drop-in, a recording of which …
Bank says its job is done Although the Bank of Canada cut by 25bp this week, taking the policy rate to 2.25%, it also shared its intention to move to the sidelines from here. The statement noted that the policy rate is now “at about the right level to …
Demand-side pressures building in Czechia Q3 GDP data out of Czechia this week showed that the economy grew by an impressive +0.7% q/q last quarter, which was up from +0.5% in Q2 and more than we and other analysts had expected (consensus: +0.3%, CE: …
The Fed is trying to calibrate policy in the midst of a government shutdown that’s effectively cut off the flow of data. Jerome Powell says that when you’re driving in fog, you should slow down – but there’s still a case for the FOMC to follow this past …
Copper: record high ignores soft demand backdrop The positive mood music early in the week surrounding cooling US-China trade tensions set the stage for copper to reach an all-time high of $11,185 per tonne on Wednesday. Alongside this most recent boost, …
Thursday this week marked the one-year anniversary of the Chancellor’s, Rachel Reeves’, first Budget. Her second Budget on 26 th November may be almost as big. Indeed, two developments this week suggest it may be a bit bigger than we previously thought. …
Note quite as bad as it looks The shock 0.3% m/m decline in GDP in August is not quite as bad as it looks, given the role played by temporary factors and the accompanying upward revision to growth in July. Nonetheless, it provides some support to our view …
The deluge of data for the euro-zone this week came in largely as expected: euro-zone GDP grew by 0.2% q/q in Q3 and inflation edged down to 2.1% in October. One positive surprise was the large 0.5% q/q increase in French GDP, supported by a 0.9% rise in …
Asia Chart Pack (October 2025) …
Any boost from lower US tariffs will be minor Tariffs have clearly been the key focus of the Trump administration’s trade policy. But the halving of fentanyl tariffs on China, which takes the effective US tariffs rate from 40% to 30%, doesn’t alter the …
Mozambique seeks debt talks amid LNG delays Mozambique’s key gas projects are at risk of further delays, which seems to have tipped the government towards seeking a debt restructuring. The recent mood music around Mozambique’s gas projects had been …
US hyperscalers are increasingly using leases as an alternative to capital spending. This Update considers why that is happening and its implications for them, the lessors, and the economy more broadly. The five companies in the S&P 500 that have …
Inflation to fall further in coming months The small drop back in inflation in October was expected and was driven by a further fall in energy and food inflation. We think both headline and core inflation are likely to fall below 2% in the first half of …
Donald loves a (trade) deal… US President Donald Trump’s visit to Asia this week resulted in some trade deals that, at the margin, will provide some support to economic growth and may argue in favour of central banks pushing through fewer rate cuts than …
Strong investment drives Q3 surprise Hong Kong’s GDP growth delivered a strong upside surprise in Q3, picking up to 3.8% y/y, from 3.1% y/y in Q2 (the Bloomberg median was +2.9% and our forecast was +3.3 %). While that partly reflects a weaker base for …
Export boom offsets domestic weakness Taiwan’s economy recorded another quarter of strong growth in Q3, driven by a continued surge in export demand, which once again offset a further slowdown in domestic activity. This pace of expansion is unlikely to be …
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. We’re hosting a 20-minute online briefing at 9am GMT on Tuesday 4 th November to discuss how tax rises in the Budget on 26 th November could influence the UK housing market. …
Bihar election, Russian oil imports & US tariffs The state election in Bihar, beginning next week, will be closely watched not only for its implications for reforms but also as a potential referendum on India’s position in trade talks with the US. Bihar …
We think China’s equities stand to benefit more than those in the US from any further easing in US-China tensions. That said, we still think the US stock market will outperform China’s over the next year. In the end, the outcomes from the much-hyped …
Food inflation going from strength to strength The Bank of Japan kept policy settings unchanged at its meeting on Thursday as widely anticipated. But while its Outlook report retained the downbeat language the Bank adopted after Liberation Day, Governor …
This report was first published on Friday 31 st October, covering the official PMIs. We added commentary on the RatingDog manufacturing PMI on Monday 3 rd November and the RatingDog services and composite PMIs on Wednesday 5 th November. Cooling exports …
The latest RICS Commercial Property Sentiment Index for Asia-Pacific remained in negative territory in Q3, reaffirming our view that the recovery in this cycle will be weak. Mainland China and Hong Kong continued to drag regional performance, while Japan …
Disinflation will resume before long Prior to the release of Q3 CPI data this week, RBA Governor Bullock drew a line in the sand. She said that if trimmed mean CPI were to have risen by 0.9% q/q, she would consider that a “material miss” relative to the …
Economy should return to growth this quarter The September activity data suggest that the contraction in Q3 GDP may be milder than we had anticipated and the economy should return to growth this quarter. Taking industrial production first, the 2.2% m/m …
Norway’s economic data have been a touch weaker than Norges Bank expected recently, but not by enough to prompt a rate cut next week. We’re forecasting the next cut in March 2026. At its last meeting, in September, Norges Bank implemented a hawkish cut. …
30th October 2025
Net-zero shipping framework fails to set sail The adoption of the UN International Maritime Organization’s (IMO’s) new global carbon tax on shipping emissions – that was described by President Trump as a “ scam tax ” – and a broader maritime net-zero …
Is PIF set for a step back? The Public Investment Fund (PIF) has been a key driver of Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030 reforms, but comments from PIF and government officials this week suggest that there is an increasing focus on drawing in more private …
Investment sentiment saw a sharp improvement in Q3, buoyed by falling interest rates and an improvement in confidence in the economic outlook, although foreign enquiries remained in the doldrums. There was also a notable improvement in office occupier …
The ECB’s decision to leave its deposit rate unchanged at 2.0% and offer no guidance on future rate decisions was as expected. The Bank is likely to take the same approach at forthcoming meetings too. But as we move further into 2026, we think falling …
The 30%-pts of GDP decline in Poland’s private sector debt-to-GDP ratio since its recent peak is on a scale typically associated with the aftermath of banking crises. The reasons are more benign in Poland’s case. But still, structurally low loan demand, …
ECB giving nothing away The ECB’s decision to leave its deposit rate unchanged at 2.0% today and offer no guidance on future rate decisions was exactly as expected. The Bank is likely to take the same approach at forthcoming meetings too. But as we move …
