German industry resilient to tariffs but output still weak German industrial production rose in July and the outturn for June was revised up suggesting that the sector has been resilient to tariffs after all. But output was still weak by past standards. …
8th September 2025
Exports set to slow further before long Exports were broadly unchanged last month – the slowdown in headline y/y growth was just a base effect. But with the temporary boost from the US-China trade truce fading and the US raising tariffs on shipments …
Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing tackles that weak US August Employment report, previews the coming week’s inflation data, talks about what’s been happening in the bond market and explains just what recent get-togethers in China signal about a new …
5th September 2025
Another soft non-farm payrolls report has put the dollar on the backfoot again, but given the extent of Fed easing already discounted we continue to think the greenback will remain rangebound over the coming weeks. While weak employment growth points to …
Another weak US Employment Report has knocked risk appetite, but a lot of optimism is still baked in. While that raises the prospect of a more serious blow to markets should economic data sour , our sense is that investors’ optimism is largely justified. …
Broad-based labour market weakness The August Labour Force Survey was weak, with employment falling by 66,500 and the unemployment rate rising to a four-year high of 7.1%. While the Bank of Canada always expected some weakness in tariff-impacted sectors …
War on drugs redux The US’s focus on drug trafficking in Latin America intensified this week. The US Navy sank a ship accused of being used by the Venezuelan Tren de Aragua gang. Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Mexican President Sheinbaum agreed this …
Trump appeals to Supreme Court on tariffs The conventional wisdom is that President Trump has pushed well beyond the established bounds on executive power in his second term. In a number of areas, including tariffs, deportations, the use of the military …
Putin meets Xi and Modi in Tianjin … Russia’s relations with China and India were on full display as their leaders met this week, and the diplomatic cohesion projected by the three countries provided somewhat of a kick in the teeth to the US. One of the …
Tariffs aren’t to blame for manufacturers’ struggles According to a Reuters report on Thursday, BYD has slashed its 2025 sales target by around 15%, having met only half of its original annual target over the first eight months of the year. This comes …
The Chancellor, Rachel Reeves, may be a bit happier at the end of this week than she was at the start. The sell-off in the government bond market over the last month appears to have abated a bit. (See Chart 1.) And she will hope that her decision to hold …
Angola: oil sector turnaround seems a while away Angola’s economy is being weighed down by problems in its oil sector, and while a swathe of investment announcements from multinationals this week will help, it will take time realise results. Lower oil …
Employment shocker makes September cut look almost certain The second consecutive large fall in employment together with the renewed rise in the unemployment rate underscore that conditions in the labour market remain bleak amid the impact of US tariffs. …
Modest rise in unemployment rate will cap September rate cut at 25bp While the weak 22,000 gain in non-farm payrolls in August confirms what already looked a nailed-on rate cut at this month’s FOMC meeting, the limited rise in the unemployment rate to …
Yields on long-dated government bonds have been a talking point for investors again this week but we don’t think the increase will have much impact on the economic outlook. The increase in 30-year yields has not been as large in the euro-zone as in the …
What’s Polish for “gold bug”? Central banks’ appetite for gold has been under the spotlight in recent years and, along with deepening concerns about fiscal sustainability , has been one of the factors behind gold’s sustained rally to a fresh nominal …
House prices in the euro-zone are increasing quite quickly, but we doubt that this will last. So rising house prices will provide only limited support to household consumption and investment in the coming quarters. After falling in 2022 and 2023 as the …
Many of the conditions which have led to fiscal crises in the past are now in place. This does not mean a fiscal crisis in the UK is imminent or inevitable. The missing ingredient is a trigger. If a UK fiscal crisis does erupt, it’s as likely to come from …
Data released this morning confirmed that the euro-zone economy has been resilient so far in the face of US tariffs and related uncertainty. But the latest surveys point to weak growth in Q3. The third estimate of euro-zone GDP in Q2, published this …
GST changes to provide small consumption boost Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman this week provided details of the changes to the Goods and Services Tax (GST) that had been pledged by PM Modi in his Independence Day Speech in August. As of 22 nd …
This interactive dashboard allows you to explore all of our forecasts and key data for European residential property. If you have subscriber access to the data underlying this dashboard, you can download it via the menu options in the top right of each …
Inflation very low Indonesia, Korea, Thailand, the Philippines and Taiwan all published August inflation figures this week, and the data were weak across the board. Thailand was in deflation for a fifth consecutive month, while the headline rate was …
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Tax rises may hold back retail and housing The rises in retail sales volumes in July and the Halifax measure of house prices in August suggest the economy maintained some decent …
Less policy support needed in Australia After a sluggish start to the year, the Australian economy is showing signs of life once again. We learnt that real GDP expanded by 0.6% q/q in Q2, a stronger result than the 0.5% increase the RBA had predicted. The …
Wage growth will remain strong enough to justify further BoJ tightening The wage data released today weren’t quite as impressive as they look but suggest that trade tensions aren’t posing a major threat to Japan’s economy. The preliminary estimate …
30-year JGB yield hits multi-year high The yield on 30-year Japanese Government Bonds (JGBs) hit a fresh high this week. There are three points worth making. First, the recent sell-off in long-dated government bonds is a global phenomenon so trying to …
Our refreshed analysis of the 34 largest US warehousing markets puts Dallas and Memphis in a close-fought battle for the top. Kansas City and Phoenix have risen up our rankings, while Minneapolis, St. Louis, Boston and Riverside bring up the rear. The …
4th September 2025
The ECB looks set to leave its deposit rate at 2% for the rest of this year. Next year, we think interest rate cuts are more likely than hikes. French fiscal risks will cause spreads to widen, but ECB won’t react. The account of July’s ECB meeting …
Yesterday’s rise in the S&P 500 was fuelled by the shares of two of its largest firms after a favourable antitrust ruling. Although this masked a decline in the average stock in the index, we don’t think that broader-based weakness is a sign of things to …
OPEC+’s unwinding on hold temporarily This weekend’s OPEC+ meeting appears to be on a knife edge as to whether the group decides to push ahead with unwinding the next tranche of oil output cuts or takes a breather. Either way, the risks to oil prices …
Gold continues to shine, all eyes on OPEC+ There have been several factors supporting gold prices to a record high above $3,500 per ounce, including greater expectations of Fed rate cuts and investor concern about fiscal positions. And against the …
Economy doing well but inflation still a concern The solid rise in the ISM services index in August matches the generally positive mood around the economy’s growth prospects in the third quarter. The tick down in the prices paid index is a relief, but …
The increase in euro-denominated bank lending and deposits across parts of CEE in recent years – due in part to high domestic inflation and interest rates – looks like a concern on the surface, but there are reasons to think it doesn’t pose a significant …
Over the next 18 months, we expect CPI inflation and interest rates in the UK to fall closer to the euro-zone equivalents. And even though it has its own problems, the UK’s fiscal situation is not as challenging as France’s. The net result is that we …
Export rebound provides some hope The rebound in exports in July was broad-based but, with the export order indicators still weak, we suspect it reflects more of an inevitable rebound from recent weakness rather than the start of a renewed positive trend. …
Trade deficit widens as gold imports rise A resurgence in gold imports partly explains the widening of the trade deficit in July. Exports were flat, but a weaker dollar and negligible tariff retaliation abroad should support them in the coming months, …
With new supply limited and solid GDP growth prospects supporting demand, we believe that Warsaw prime office rental growth will outpace the CEE average in 2025, before converging with the region’s average over 2026-29. The latest data showed that prime …
Construction activity still contracting The headline CIPS construction PMI ticked up to 45.5 in August, from a five-year low in July. But that suggests construction activity is still contracting. Once again, a weak housing sector is weighing on the …
UK SONIA Rates …
After falling by 16% from their 2021 peak to their recent trough in March, prime central London (PCL) house prices have risen in each of the three months to June. But with prime buyers less reliant on lower interest rates and more exposed to possible …
Rates on hold, but more easing likely before year-end Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) today left its policy rate unchanged at 2.75%, but we think this represents a pause, not an end to the central bank’s easing cycle. With the outlook for growth worsening …
Steady inflation reduces likelihood of rate cut later this month Headline inflation was unchanged in August and is still likely to remain close to, but above, zero over the coming months. While today’s data and recent comments by SNB Vice Chairman Antoine …
Consumer spending on track for further gains in Q3 With the Australian consumer springing back into action, the case for aggressive policy easing is becoming weaker. According to the ABS’ monthly indicator, household spending rose by 0.5% m/m in July, …
While the sell-off in government bond markets has abated a bit today, the UK Gilt market continues to stand out, and not in a good way. Nonetheless, we continue to think that Gilt yields will eventually fall back towards 4%. As we discussed yesterday , …
3rd September 2025
The JOLTS data for July point to a gradual easing in labour market conditions. The large decline in healthcare and social assistance job openings is another reason to think that the disproportionate payroll gains in that sector will slow. However, the …
The slowdown in world goods trade since Q1 has been largely due to the reversal of tariff front-running. But the latest data show that world trade has so far not slumped in the wake of tariffs. And while forward-looking indicators point to a slowdown, we …
