This page has been updated with additional analysis. Big contraction to be a one off The 0.5% q/q fall in GDP in Q3 shows that US trade policies have been much more disruptive for Switzerland than was anticipated. But a deal agreed last Friday will reduce …
17th November 2025
The renewed sell-off in US tech stocks last week puts even more of a spotlight on the earnings report of AI-bellwether Nvidia this Wednesday: it will set the tone for the wider tech sector over the coming few weeks into year-end. Meanwhile, the UK …
Thailand’s economy contracted during the third quarter and we think it will struggle over the coming months, prompting the central bank to step in and loosen monetary policy by more than most expect. GDP rose by just 1.2% y/y in Q3, down from 2.8% the …
Activity will rebound this quarter The fall in GDP last quarter further reduces the chances of a BoJ rate hike in December but we still think that the Bank will resume its tightening cycle at its January meeting. The 0.4% q/q fall in Q2 GDP was less …
Russian economy slowing even before latest US sanctions The slowdown in Russian GDP growth in Q3, to 0.6% y/y, confirms that the war and high interest rates are continuing to take their toll on activity, and the latest US sanctions on the energy sector …
14th November 2025
*This Weekly has been updated since its original publication to include revised post-shutdown data-release dates and previews* Normal service resumes in Washington A wave of flight cancellations and concerns that food-aid programs would soon run out of …
The Summary of Deliberations of the Bank of Canada’s October meeting, when it cut its policy rate by 25bp to 2.25%, unsurprisingly had a dovish tilt. After discussing the economic backdrop following the US tariff shock, members agreed that “monetary …
Where is the big macro payoff from the surge in artificial intelligence investment? And is AI wiping out entry-level jobs? The latest episode of The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics unpacks these questions and examines what this new wave of …
US ratchets up pressure on Maduro The arrival of the USS Gerald R. Ford, the US’s most advanced aircraft carrier, in Latin American waters this week has added to the military build-up in the Caribbean. In part, this appears to reflect a broader aim by the …
The Hungarian government has announced various fiscal giveaways over recent months, and this week officially revised up its budget deficit targets for both this year and 2026 to 5.0% of GDP. That compares to previous targets of 4.3% and 3.7% of GDP. We …
Solid rebound in sales shows industry continuing to battle on amid tariffs The solid rebound in manufacturing sales in September is not as positive for GDP growth as first meets the eye, since inventories of finished products and goods in process both …
The mood in the series of UK Budget themed Roundtable discussions we held with clients in London this week felt very different from a similar event we held ahead of the last Budget a year ago. Back then, the mood was one of cautious optimism. Now, there …
The Japanese yen continues to suffer from the wide monetary policy gap between Japan and other major economies. We think that gap will gradually narrow and the yen recover some ground over the next year. The yen has been the worst performer among the G10 …
Judging by the government bond markets, it looks as if investors have taken a positive view of recent developments in France. The yield spread on ten-year French over German bonds has narrowed from 85bp in early October, when Prime Minister Lecornu …
PBOC still sounding dovish Loan growth has slumped over the past year, hitting a record low of 6.5% in October . Despite this, the PBOC has done little to shore up loan demand. It has cut policy rates just once this year, in May, and only by 10bps. That’s …
Nicolás Maduro has probably never heard of Enya, but he will nonetheless be hoping that the USS Gerald R. Ford and the rest of the US’s military build-up in the Caribbean simply sails away . Our latest Latin America Weekly considers what a possible US …
BoK minutes points to November hold The Bank of Korea doesn’t appear to be in any hurry to resume its easing cycle, judging by the minutes of the October policy meeting published this week. The central bank kept rates on hold at that meeting, with only …
Subdued inflation to prompt further rate cuts We learnt this week that India’s headline inflation rate fell to a near 26-year low of just 0.3% y/y in October. (See here for our initial Data Response .) This was driven in large part by food prices falling …
Investors cheer South Africa’s latest fiscal statement South Africa’s Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana couldn’t have wished for a better response from investors to this week’s Medium-Term Budget Policy Statement (MTBPS) and his decision to lower the …
Economic growth to remain underwhelming Data released today confirm that economic growth in the euro-zone picked up in Q3 but remained fairly subdued and that the labour market is cooling. We expect growth to remain sluggish and the labour market to …
Thailand’s recovery from the pandemic has been one of the weakest in Asia and, with the boost from consumer spending fading as households deleverage, the economy is running short of growth drivers. We expect growth to stay weak in 2026, which is likely to …
China’s stock market has fared better than many as investor confidence in the AI boom has faltered, despite having benefited from that boom this year. We suspect it would continue to outperform the US, at least, if the sell-off gathered steam. At the time …
Investment slump continues deepen The collapse in investment spending continued last month, though we still think it is likely to partially reverse before long. More worrying is that output-side measures of activity, which had held up fairly well last …
Car industry most at risk PM Takaichi triggered China’s ire this week by arguing that an attack on Taiwan would constitute a “survival-threatening situation” that could warrant the use of Japan’s army. In response, China’s consul general in Osaka noted …
Upside risks may be overblown In a notably hawkish speech this week, RBA Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser put forward his view that the ongoing rebound in activity – unlike most others in Australia’s modern history – is taking place with there being little …
Despite outperforming so far this week, we suspect equities in Europe will ultimately fall behind their peers in the US again through the end of 2026. One reason is that we don’t see a tailwind from the currency markets: much of European equities’ strong …
13th November 2025
Solid demand and a lack of new supply mean we expect senior housing vacancy rates to reach record lows in 2027 and stay at low levels in the following years, helping rent gains averages 4.5% p.a. over the forecast. Taken together with the current risk …
We expect GDP growth to average less than 1% annualised over the second half of this year, with the unemployment rate rising toward 7.3% early next year. Core inflation is likely to remain above target before gradually heading back to 2% by the middle of …
Security and nuclear deals at the heart of MbS visit Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MbS) will travel to Washington to meet US President Trump next Tuesday, his first visit since 2018. At the top of the agenda are likely to be security …
We think long-dated Gilt yields will fall over the next year, ensuring they no longer remain an outlier in the G7. That’s mainly because we expect inflation to fall sharply in 2026 and allow the Bank of England to cut interest rates by more than is …
The reopening of the federal government does not mean the flow of economic data will be restored straight away. Survey-based data not collected in October during the funding lapse will take weeks to gather, process and quality check. Publishing missing …
Industry stages only partial rebound, set to remain weak The 0.2% increase in euro-zone industrial production in September offset only part of the previous month’s 1.1% decline. The big picture is that industrial output is subdued and the sector is likely …
Weak price pressures to persist Saudi Arabia’s headline inflation rate was unchanged at 2.2% y/y in October, remaining weak by other EM and Gulf standards, and we expect it to stay subdued as we head into 2026. October’s outturn was stronger than …
Bank lending growth slows, despite subsidy scheme Bank loan growth continued to weaken in October, with the consumer loan subsidy scheme failing to put a floor under household loan growth. Alongside the continued slowdown in government bond issuance, that …
This interactive dashboard presents our forecasts out to 2050 for equities, bonds, REITs and commodities. This includes total return forecasts in a range of currency denominations, as well as additional metrics such as our price-to-earnings (PE) ratio …
Solid performance continues The strong 0.8% q/q growth recorded in Poland in Q3 confirms that it remains one of the fastest growing economies in the EU and suggests that the risks to our near-term GDP forecasts lie to the upside. Today’s data may also …
The RICS survey showed a softening in demand, investment enquiries and the outlook for capital values in the euro-zone in Q3, consistent with our view that the commercial property recovery will weaken in the coming quarters. The latest RICS survey …
The Philippines’ current account deficit has widened to more than 4% of GDP and it is being increasingly financed by more volatile forms of foreign capital. This helps to explain why the peso has weakened against the dollar amid the ongoing corruption …
We’re hosting a 20-minute online briefing at 3pm GMT on Wednesday 19 th November to discuss what to expect in the Budget and what it could mean for the UK economy, the UK housing market and the financial markets. (Register here .) This page has been …
Budget uncertainty continues to sap buyer and landlord sentiment October’s RICS survey provides further evidence that Budget uncertainty is dampening buyer sentiment and is contributing to the continued decline in the supply of rental properties. Tax …
Bounce back in employment will keep RBA on hold for a while The renewed tightening of the labour market last month will feed the Bank’s concerns about elevated capacity pressures and keep rate cuts off the agenda in the near-term. The 42,200 rise in …
The surge in AI investment has so far been more apparent in company reports of nominal CapEx than in real investment in the wider economy. But the latter impact is growing. And while individual companies’ future earnings might not warrant the intense …
12th November 2025
Property valuations saw a minor improvement in Q3, thanks to a fall in dividend yields, but property still looks overvalued. Looking ahead, a fall in the 10-year gilt yield since the end of Q3 should help valuations improve somewhat in the near term. But …
Although the failure of the average US large-cap equity to make any progress since late August is reminiscent of the final stages of the dotcom bubble, we think that some key differences under the hood mean it’s too early to ring the alarm bell. US equity …
The Czech National Bank (CNB) has left interest rates on hold over the past six months and, while the consensus view remains that there’ll be one more cut, we think the improving growth outlook means the next move in interest rates will be a hike . We …
South Africa’s finance minister used today’s Medium-Term Budget Policy Statement (MTBPS) as an opportunity to spend a large chunk of a recent revenue windfall to boost the economy. But this is likely to be a one-off; longer-term fiscal consolidation …
