Service industries ended last year on a high The continued fall in the ISM Services prices paid index is consistent with “supercore” PCE inflation remaining elevated over the next few months, but heading back down in the right direction. Meanwhile, the …
7th January 2026
We think investors will be surprised by how far inflation, interest rates and gilt yields fall this year. That said, these forecasts could be knocked off course should fiscal policy not be tightened as much as planned due to the political pressures on the …
It’s still far too early to say if Venezuela’s post-Maduro government will seek to reverse the past few decades of economic mismanagement. But if it does, the experience from countries in Eastern Europe and Latin America in the late 1980s and 1990s offers …
The latest data suggest that the global economy lost some momentum in Q4. Industrial activity appears to be softening, while global trade – which has held up well despite US tariffs – fell in October. In advanced economies, consumer confidence remains …
Although supply concerns are still present, the most recent surge in copper prices seems to be some spillover from exuberance in other corners of commodity markets. Looking ahead, we suspect that euphoric sentiment will be disappointed as boosts to demand …
Private sector credit growth in South Africa has accelerated and, with further monetary easing on the cards and crowding out by the government likely to wane, we think this will continue. Stronger credit growth, as well as lower debt servicing costs, will …
The recovery in European commercial property values is set to slow this year given the soft economic growth backdrop and elevated interest rates. Our forecast for euro-zone all-property total returns of around 7.5% would undershoot long-term averages. …
Headline rate at the target but services inflation remains high December’s small fall in headline inflation to 2.0%, and the likelihood that it will drop further in January, won’t alter ECB policymakers’ thinking. But if we’re right that headline and core …
Construction activity still in the doldrums The slight rise in the headline CIPS construction PMI in December 2025 to 40.1, from 39.4 in November, left the index firmly in contractionary territory. The rise was driven entirely by an improvement in the …
In our update of our Global Fracturing map for 2026, we now classify India as unaligned, rather than leaning towards the US, following the cooling of the relationship with the Trump administration. India’s government has pointedly reached out to China but …
Asia-Pacific property markets have performed largely in line with our mid-2025 forecasts, with investment activity recovering only moderately and returns held back by falling capital values . We expect weak returns to persist in 2026, reaching just 2.6%, …
RBA still set to tighten policy While trimmed mean inflation slowed in February, it’s probably still too strong for the RBA’s liking and we’re sticking to our forecast that the Bank will tighten policy as soon as next month. The drop in headline …
Although the 10-year JGB yield has now risen decisively above 2%, we aren’t inclined to revise up our already bearish end-2026 forecast of 2.25% given the path of Japan’s policy rate that now seems to be discounted in the OIS market. 10-year sovereign …
6th January 2026
In light of President Trump’s recent intervention in Venezuela and statements that the US should acquire Greenland, this Update answers some key questions about Greenland and the US. What has happened? Over the past few days two things have put …
Lower inflation, lower interest rates, continued tight supply of new homes and the prospect of more high loan-to-income mortgage lending means we think annual house price growth will accelerate from 1.6% in Q4 2025 to around 3.5% in Q4 2026. That would …
The apartment market appears to have turned a corner, with the national vacancy rate stabilizing in recent quarters as new supply moderates, which we expect will restore some pricing power to building owners. However, the same is not true everywhere. …
As we expected, and in contrast to consensus, all-property yields saw no compression in 2025. But stronger-than-expected rental growth means our call for all-property total returns of 6.6% in 2025 will prove a little too pessimistic. That said, our …
Vietnam’s economy is booming on the back of strong exports, most notably to the US, as it benefits from shifts in global supply chains. However, the export surge is widening Vietnam’s trade surplus with the US, which could invite renewed scrutiny from …
Israel posted a rare current account deficit in Q3, its first quarterly deficit in a decade, but we don’t think this is a concern and expect the current account to return to surplus in the coming quarters. Israel’s solid external balance sheet leaves the …
Improved relations between Saudi Arabia and the US since President Trump returned to office, as well as recent agreements in the areas of AI-related technologies and defence, mean that we are shifting the Kingdom into the “lean US” camp as part of our …
Euro-zone inflation back below 2% National inflation data released so far suggest that euro-zone headline inflation fell below 2% in December and that the core rate edged down. ECB policymakers will take that as confirmation that interest rates are …
A soft end to 2025 December’s batch of PMIs suggested that non-oil sectors in the Gulf softened at the end of last year and we expect this continue over the course of 2026. And while Egypt’s PMI fell back, it continued to paint a positive sign for its …
The recovery in European property values in 2025 was broadly as we forecasted. However, the drivers differed slightly from our expectations, with a smaller-than-expected fall in prime property yields offset by stronger rental growth for prime offices that …
While Japanese firms seem to be investing more in information & communication technology than those in almost any other advanced economy, broader measures suggest that the country is not a leading digital economy. Accordingly, productivity growth will …
The explosive rises in silver, platinum, and palladium prices in recent weeks suggest that retail investor-driven exuberance in the gold market has found another outlet. However, if our view that FOMO-driven demand for precious metals will evaporate this …
5th January 2026
Geoeconomics is back in focus as we enter 2026, with the removal of Venezuela’s Nicolás Maduro by the US dominating headlines and raising questions for global markets. This Global Economics Update draws on the research from our Geoeconomics page to answer …
Manufacturing still struggling for momentum The modest decline in the ISM Manufacturing Index in December confirms that the sector was struggling for momentum around the turn of the year, but we doubt that this will be enough to prevent overall GDP from …
BoI continues easing as inflation softens further The Bank of Israel (BoI) opted to reduce its policy rate by another 25bp to 4.00% today, and the tone of its communications suggests that its easing cycle has further to run. We now expect a further 50bp …
In a busy electoral calendar, several Asian countries will go to the polls this year, with potentially significant implications for economic reform in India and macroeconomic stability in Bangladesh. In contrast, Thailand’s election is unlikely to resolve …
Venezuela’s economy has suffered one of the largest contractions in GDP during peacetime which in part reflects woes in its oil sector, but also the undermining of private businesses and the institutional framework by Presidents Maduro and Chávez. The …
Although we were right in expecting a slow recovery in investment transactions in 2025 and for office CMBS delinquency rates to climb further, stretched valuations did not result in another fall in capital values and we over-egged the extent of …
Despite President Trump’s obvious desire for US oil companies to ramp up activity in Venezuela, lower oil prices and political uncertainty will frustrate efforts to exploit its vast energy potential. Venezuela’s oil-producing pedigree is obvious: it was …
Six-month net lending at its highest since September 2008 Net lending secured against commercial property accelerated again in November, reaching £2.49bn. Aside from the slightly higher outturn in August 2025, that was the strongest monthly increase since …
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Few signs Budget influenced borrowing but households saved a bit more November’s money and lending figures suggest that while the pre-Budget speculation about tax rises had …
While the capture of Venezuelan president Maduro by American forces has dominated headlines, financial markets seem unperturbed. We agree with the implicit view that the near-term economic and financial implications are minor. But the geopolitical …
We aren’t convinced that the Bank of Japan is falling behind the curve despite the recent acceleration in bank lending. Nonetheless, there are few signs that BoJ rate hikes are resulting in tighter financial conditions and we’re sticking to our view that …
The removal of Venezuelan president Nicolás Maduro by the US is unlikely to have meaningful near-term economic consequences for the global economy. But its political and geopolitical ramifications will reverberate. Venezuela’s global economic importance …
4th January 2026
We estimate that non-farm payrolls rose by 60,000 in December, with the unemployment rate edging back down to 4.5%. Some signs of improvement The 69,000 gain in private payrolls in November was once again heavily dependent on a 64,000 rise from health …
2nd January 2026
But inflation differentials to limit the hit to exports Earlier this week, the onshore renminbi strengthened beyond 7.00 per US dollar for the first time since May 2023. (See Chart 1.) Over the course of 2025, the Chinese currency appreciated 3.3% against …
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Disappointing end to a soft year December’s 0.4% m/m decline in Nationwide house prices rounds off a tough year for the housing market and suggests the combination of still-high …
The December manufacturing PMI readings for Asian economies remain consistent with generally soft manufacturing activity. However, the PMIs have recently been a poor guide to the hard activity data in several economies. Exports from most countries have …
Australia’s house price rally lost some steam in December and if we’re right that the Reserve Bank of Australia will lift interest rates as soon as February this slowdown has further to run. House prices across Australia’s eight capital cities slowed from …
China Chart Pack (Dec 25) …
31st December 2025
Construction activity bounces back but wider domestic weakness remains This report was first published on Wednesday 31 st December, covering the official PMIs and the RatingDog manufacturing PMI. We added commentary on the RatingDog services and composite …
Minutes reveal broad support for a pause The minutes of the FOMC’s December meeting, when it voted to lower the fed funds target range by 25bp to between 3.50% and 3.75%, are somewhat outdated given the slew of delayed data releases since then. …
30th December 2025
The office sector may be turning a corner, but there remain big differences in metro performance. Southern metros look set to dominate the winners, with Austin, Miami and Dallas coming out on top for office employment and demand prospects. Houston takes …
