Normal service resumes in Washington

We are sending this Weekly again to include the dates and previews of the post-shutdown data releases that have been announced so far

With the federal government reopened, the task now is to assess the economic damage caused by the record-length six-week shutdown. We expect fourth-quarter GDP (when it is eventually published) to show a meaningful hit – potentially subtracting as much as 1.5%-points from annualised growth – but this should be reversed next quarter as postponed federal spending is made up and federal workers’ restored pay boosts consumption.